Posted on 08/25/2004 9:21:14 AM PDT by COURAGE
President Bush has pulled even with John Kerry in a new IBD/TIPP Poll amid charges the challenger may have oversold his four months of service in Vietnam.
In a three-way race, Bush and Kerry both would get 43% if the election were held today, according to the poll taken Aug. 17-23. Independent Ralph Nader would get 5%. In a two-way race, Bush and Kerry deadlock at 44%.
In the previous IBD/TIPP Poll, taken Aug. 2-5, shortly after the Democratic convention, Kerry led by three points in a three-way race and by six in head-to-head competition.
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"The recent controversy over Vietnam has perhaps cost Kerry some of his luster," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.
Kerry, who made his Vietnam service a focal point during the convention, has come under fire from veterans' groups for allegedly distorting his war record. Those charges seem to have taken a toll on Kerry's support.
The latest anti-Kerry ads also may have had some effect. They contrast his scathing criticism of U.S. soldiers in Vietnam in testimony before a Senate committee in 1971 and his current ardent pursuit of veterans' votes.
The race in swing states also continues to be close. In late July, Kerry had a four-point lead among "battleground" voters. In the latest poll, Bush leads by a point (44% to 43%), ending Kerry's modest advantage.
Bush also continued to whittle at Kerry's lead among independents. Before the Democratic convention in July, Kerry led Bush by 22 points (52% to 30%) among this group. That was cut to seven points (43% to 36%) after the convention, and Kerry has been unable to recoup the lost ground. The latest poll puts Kerry's advantage with independents at six points (41%-35%).
With fewer than 70 days left before the election, Bush's popularity remains more intense than Kerry's. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Bush supporters say they support him "strongly" compared with 56% of Kerry supporters.
"You have to keep this in mind while you read the trial-heat numbers," said Mayur. "Despite the fact that the race is currently tied, Bush may be in a stronger position due to his stronger intensity of support. A subpar intensity can hurt voter turnout."
The IBD/TIPP Poll shows that the candidate qualities that matter most to Americans in selecting their president are "honesty and trustworthiness" (23%), "strong leadership" (21%) and "good judgment in crisis" (17%).
About one in 10 are most concerned about having a president who "understands complex issues" or "cares about people like me" (12% and 11%, respectively). Perhaps surprisingly, experience and being likable are not very high on the list (6% and 2%).
Bush is preferred among those who attach high import to honesty and trustworthiness (50% for Bush vs. 29% for Kerry) and strong leadership (64% Bush vs. 27% Kerry).
Kerry is preferred 70%-18% among those who place high importance on understanding complex issues, and empathy — "cares about people like me" (76% Kerry and 17% Bush).
Among those who think "good judgment in crisis" to be important, both Bush and Kerry are preferred equally by 45%.
Related Resources: Continue your investing education at the IBD Learning Center. For a wealth of detailed investment insights and successful investor profiles, go to The Smart Investor.
what I think it means? --------------------------------
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Remember there are two months left. Also, the US people by and large have a brain shelf life (a tolerance) of stories lasting about three weeks. After that, they get "tired of it". They "want to switch the channel". Kerry knows the American people's sentiment and short attention span. If he concludes he can win on this one, he will hope to let time wear it away and let it die down, like Clinton. Where they can't attack, they will either change the subject or let people's patience erode it for them.
ACCORDINGLY, IMHO, The Swiftboats has the potential for becoming overkill, the biggest damage is done in August/September, kerry is forgiven and forgotten in October, and in November comes up and surpasses Bush. So whatever the Swiftees have under their caps on Kerry and The 'Nam, I'd stretch it out a bit, and save plenty of it for about the final week of OCTOBER.
There have been reports that they are planning an October surprise.
Thanks for posting, Courage.
This is very encouraging -- counteracts some of the doom and gloom posted elsewhere.
The Swiftees have truth on their side.
Well, COURAGE,
Aren't you going to ask the flamers for an apology? After all, this is an encouraging post.
A few more posts like these, and you'll have your critics silenced.
Way to go.
Earlier today, I responded to someone who claimed: "The best that can happen is that the undecided 5-10% finally determined that Kerry is a bigger weasel than they can stomach."
Wrong, wrong wrong, ... as I wrote. For the past months THERE HAS BEEN A MYTH OF THE POLARIZATION OF THE ELECTORATE. As I've said over and over and over, very few pay close attention to politics. Now that they are learning the whole story due to the unavoidable sKerry situation, they will slowly change back to President Bush. Witness the new poll story:
"In a three-way race, Bush and Kerry both would get 43% if the election were held today, according to the poll taken Aug. 17-23. Independent Ralph Nader would get 5%. In a two-way race, Bush and Kerry deadlock at 44%.
"In the previous IBD/TIPP Poll, taken Aug. 2-5, shortly after the Democratic convention, Kerry led by three points in a three-way race and by six in head-to-head competition."
I continue to be amazed that even seasoned FReepers have bought that "polarized electorate" line that has been touted for so very long by the Old Media Fraudcasters, but many here have.
I continue to state, as I have since the end of the Demodog makeover convention, the election will go:
Have faith ... this story shows that the President's reelection campaign is going swimmingly well. Look: it was only a matter of time before the 'Nam issue bit sKerry! It just did so a bit earlier than I would have made happen if I were running the President's campaign.
Wait until his Liberal with a BIG L Senate record starts to have an effect! That Big L Liberal who has a HUGE anti-gun record to boot is going to kill sKerry in several swing states when voters start paying attention to the election. Most Americans do NOT want a Massachusetts liberal for President, and sKerry can NOT hide this forever.
About a week ago, I actually started to have fun again. I'm planning a big party in November now.
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Good observation. Before the Demodog makeover convention, there was a good deal of fanfare about pollsters getting a baseline poll. I suspect they believe a huge bounce is coming for the President in the next two weeks, and they are not too concerned about microscopic baselining.
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Here is another group - a very broad group - who have been swayed by the SwiftVets revelations. That 45-45 split will not be seen the next time IBD asks this question. Their entrance into the campaign also affects these groups:
The IBD/TIPP Poll shows that the candidate qualities that matter most to Americans in selecting their president are "honesty and trustworthiness" (23%), "strong leadership" (21%) and "good judgment in crisis" (17%).
These are not transient qualities we're talking about, and the erosion of sKerry is not going to be transient. It is a result of the people finally coming to understand who this guy is in truth. sKerry is toast... and I love the smell of this smoke...
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Jay is yet another limp wristed panty waste who would have done very well putting a few years in the Marine Corps.
Remember liberalism is not a state of being with this crowd. It is a mental disorder.
SUPPORT FReeREPUBLIC!
I seriously doubt anyone alive in 2995 will have any idea who John Kerry was.
;-)
YESSS!!!
Once again, it's the year of the "Broken Glass Republican"!
I still have the Bush/Cheney sticker I put on my brand new van in 2000! I've never had a problem with it, but then I live in a town that has quite a few Repubs., so that helps!
Broken-glass Bush supporters about sums it up.
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