Posted on 08/23/2004 12:55:32 PM PDT by NYC GOP Chick
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Food manufacturers who have stocked store shelves with low-carbohydrate versions of everything from spaghetti sauce to ice cream may find they are eating the costs themselves, as the low-carb fad peaks, analysts and industry observers said.
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"It's typical that one rushes into the party just when the party is breaking up," said William Leach, food industry analyst at Neuberger Berman.
Sales of low-carb branded foods surged $815 million, to $1.13 billion, in the 12 months ended June 13, according to market research firm Information Resources Inc. That includes both new brands like Atkins and Carb Solutions and extensions of existing brands -- like Unilever's Carb Options versions of Skippy peanut butter and Lipton soups.
But the number of people in the United States who say they are on low-carb diets like Atkins peaked in January at 9 percent, in a survey conducted by the NPD Group. It has since leveled off at about 7 percent, Harry Balzer, a vice president at the market research firm, said.
"The awareness has probably peaked," Balzer said.
The industry could have wasted "hundreds of millions" of dollars in reformulating and repackaging products as low-carb, Ken Harris, a consultant who works with consumer products and retail companies for Cannondale Associates. "Just to bring a product to market is very costly."
SAME FATE AS LOW-FAT?
Leach compared the low-carb trend with the low-fat phase in the early 1990s.
Nabisco, now a unit of Kraft Inc., launched the SnackWells brand of low-fat cookies and crackers, which was initially a hit with customers. At the beginning, retailers could not get as many packages as they wanted.
"It reminds me of 10 years ago, you had this fat phobia," Leach said. "SnackWells, one year it was on allocation. The next year you couldn't give them away."
IRI also said that the low-carb craze could go the way of low-fat. Brands like SnackWells and WOW! chips -- made by PepsiCo Inc.'s Frito-Lay unit with the controversial fat substitute olestra -- grew for about five years and have declined ever since, IRI said in a report this month.
"However, consumers may sustain interest in selected naturally low-carb products as they did with naturally low-fat yogurts," the report said. Popular foods that are naturally low in carbohydrates include bacon and eggs.
Even though the trend of people on low-carb diets seems to have peaked, it could be a while before low-carb consumption wanes, NPD's Balzer said.
"I bet it's going to be a year or so before we see declines in low-carb consumption," Balzer said, adding that consumers are likely to try various low-carb products to see if they want to include them in their normal eating habits. "If we're nothing, we are a nation that's tries."
Some of the newer low-carb products could also be repackaged to take advantage of the next big trend in food, Harris said, noting that some consumers are starting to focus more specifically on sugar than on overall carbohydrates.
But the focus on obesity remains a hurdle for food companies, Leach said.
"It's hard to be a food company and really take obesity seriously because your job is to sell food," he said.
Works so well for me...I'll never give it up, personally. I tried low fat and everything else. When I discovered low carbs, I loved the foods I could eat, and I lost weight. My health check ups are marvelous...better than they've been since I was in my twenties, and I actually sleep through the nights, which I also haven't done in a long time.
Let the rest of the world drop it if they wanna...for me, it's low carb for life...and loving it.
Red wine is good!
There was a "Mediterranian Diet" a few years back that featured it and looked good....
Heavy on the fish, but I like Greek and Italian food. I might try that....
( there IS no such thing as "Too Much Garlic!" )
I've gotten so sick of hearing carbs, carbs, CARBS! I hope the fad does go away!
I lost 60 pounds 18 months ago and have kept it off.
Low carb diet to credit for this life change with me.
Want more info? FRmail me.
My daughter has a theory that women with short hair and/or perms who fuss with their appearance constantly with diets, tanning booths, and diet softdrinks are mental cases and should never be trusted with matters of the heart.
**You don't have to buy low-carb food to do a low-carb diet**
Bingo! That was the beauty of my low carb diet. Regular food. They did want you to buy their snacks and multivitamins.
Also walking every day
And 80 oz of water every day.
Actually, it's not that simple. Atkin's/South Beach/Low GI diets aren't exactly gimmicks, and they work. Color TV and GUI operating systems were also trendy.
Ditto, about sixteen months, about 100 pounds. Love it, thank God for it.
Dan
I don't think that the low-carb food missed the Atkins wave, I think that most of the low-carb foods taste bad and miss the point of the Atkins diet, which is to loose weight while eating nutritious food that tastes like REAL food, fresh vegetables and salads, fish, meat and poultry.
It's not a fad for those of us who are healthier and happier on it. I think it probably is for those who are looking for a quick fix and then start fudging (er, no pun intended!) and say it doesn't work. Not accusing anyone here of that, but I've seen a lot of people start, eat incorrectly, then say the nutrtional plan doesn't work. It does taken a certain amount of stick-to-it-iveness. But I absolutely love it. For me, it's low carb forever and ever! :-D
The number is correct. I've been on interferon and ribovarin for a year, curing hepatitis C. Over that year, I lost 35 pounds and have really low cholesterol. I like the weight loss, but now that I'm off the drugs, my weight started going back up. Soooooo... Atkins...
I demand low-carb tires, Atkins friendly coffee, low-carb plywood, low-carb gasoline, etc.......It gets a great chuckle from most people.
Low carb tires! Hey, I had a steak made outta that last week!
The low carb prepared foods I tried tasted gross.
I think you hit on the heart of the matter. I lost a lot of weight following the Atkins recommendation to give up bread, potatoes, pasta, etc. But then the weight loss stopped, and reversed a little, when I began to indulge in Atkins candy bars and other processed "low 'net' carb" junk food. I've now resolved to treat that stuff like bread, potatoes, pasta, etc - and see if the weight loss recommences.
I'm on the anti-Atkins diet, I'm one of those people who dieters hate, I have to fight to gain weight. I have to eat like a pig to break even or I will lose 10% of my already too low body weight in a week.
My missus is a dieter and she is using the Atkins diet to great success. I've always thought diet fads were moronic but she has pointed out to me (and I have personally experienced) things about eating I would have never otherwise have noticed, and they all circle around carbs.
Speaking of my own metabolism, the more carbs I eat the sooner I get hungry again and the more intense the hunger pangs are when they arrive. If I eat a steak with eggs (no bread) a couple of hours before I go to sleep I sleep through the night and wake up wanting a coffee, but not breakfast. If I pig out on a major carb fest before I go to sleep, I will often be awakened in the night by hunger that is so intense that I can't go to sleep unless I hit the refrigerator and in the morning I want some serious food.
When I start losing weight too fast the missus loads me up on carbs because she knows in a couple of hours I will be hungry again.
The problem with Chinese food is that you eat it and then you are hungry again in a couple of hours. Why? Chinese food is most often very high carb.
Coffee (black) is already low-carb. Now, what you choose to put in it, on the other hand...
Yep, that's the ticket. Avoid all that crap and the weight will start falling off again. I am no expert but I have done a lot of my own research on this and have gone from 280 lbs to 202 lbs since last november. Only 17 lbs to my goal.
Moderation is the key. I know some long-time low carbers who swear by having exactly one of those low-carb candy bars a day -- it satisifies the sweet tooth, and the mild laxative effect counteracts any tendency toward constipation.
(That laxtive effect has done a pretty good negative reinforcement job on me, to make sure I don't over-do it with the low-carb candies...)
A lot of the new "low carb" foods may not be selling because those of us who do a low carb diet are smart enough to know that they are trying to pull the wool over our eyes with this "net carbs" crap.
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