Posted on 08/23/2004 12:55:32 PM PDT by NYC GOP Chick
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Food manufacturers who have stocked store shelves with low-carbohydrate versions of everything from spaghetti sauce to ice cream may find they are eating the costs themselves, as the low-carb fad peaks, analysts and industry observers said.
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"It's typical that one rushes into the party just when the party is breaking up," said William Leach, food industry analyst at Neuberger Berman.
Sales of low-carb branded foods surged $815 million, to $1.13 billion, in the 12 months ended June 13, according to market research firm Information Resources Inc. That includes both new brands like Atkins and Carb Solutions and extensions of existing brands -- like Unilever's Carb Options versions of Skippy peanut butter and Lipton soups.
But the number of people in the United States who say they are on low-carb diets like Atkins peaked in January at 9 percent, in a survey conducted by the NPD Group. It has since leveled off at about 7 percent, Harry Balzer, a vice president at the market research firm, said.
"The awareness has probably peaked," Balzer said.
The industry could have wasted "hundreds of millions" of dollars in reformulating and repackaging products as low-carb, Ken Harris, a consultant who works with consumer products and retail companies for Cannondale Associates. "Just to bring a product to market is very costly."
SAME FATE AS LOW-FAT?
Leach compared the low-carb trend with the low-fat phase in the early 1990s.
Nabisco, now a unit of Kraft Inc., launched the SnackWells brand of low-fat cookies and crackers, which was initially a hit with customers. At the beginning, retailers could not get as many packages as they wanted.
"It reminds me of 10 years ago, you had this fat phobia," Leach said. "SnackWells, one year it was on allocation. The next year you couldn't give them away."
IRI also said that the low-carb craze could go the way of low-fat. Brands like SnackWells and WOW! chips -- made by PepsiCo Inc.'s Frito-Lay unit with the controversial fat substitute olestra -- grew for about five years and have declined ever since, IRI said in a report this month.
"However, consumers may sustain interest in selected naturally low-carb products as they did with naturally low-fat yogurts," the report said. Popular foods that are naturally low in carbohydrates include bacon and eggs.
Even though the trend of people on low-carb diets seems to have peaked, it could be a while before low-carb consumption wanes, NPD's Balzer said.
"I bet it's going to be a year or so before we see declines in low-carb consumption," Balzer said, adding that consumers are likely to try various low-carb products to see if they want to include them in their normal eating habits. "If we're nothing, we are a nation that's tries."
Some of the newer low-carb products could also be repackaged to take advantage of the next big trend in food, Harris said, noting that some consumers are starting to focus more specifically on sugar than on overall carbohydrates.
But the focus on obesity remains a hurdle for food companies, Leach said.
"It's hard to be a food company and really take obesity seriously because your job is to sell food," he said.
I miss fruit too much to stay on Phase I all the time.
Is that a typo???
That is a ranking cool tagline :-)
Two years plus. Easiest "diet" I've ever tried.
I think the best thing to do is stay out of the middle isles in the grocery store, canned, packaged, etc. Only buy fresh fruit and meats. With our busy lifestyles, it is hard, I know. I still eat out at fast food, but I don't buy fries, and take one of the buns off my burger.
With Atkins, I lose weight, my cholesterol goes down, and I'm not hungry.
With Weight Watchers, I was miserable all the time, lost almost no weight, had my will eventually break (which lead to slipping off the diet and putting the weight right back on), and it cost me lots of money.
They should call them Money Watchers as you watch your money go to them.
My sister keeps trying their program. Over 20 years of trying with them, she's gained 50 some pounds. No Thank You.
Atkins works fine for me, thanks anyway.
Corin Stormhands wrote:
South Beach. Day 14.
11 lbs.
Why not do something healthier like take ephedra ?
Well, no program works for everyone. But I did lose a great deal of weight with WW and have been keeping it off for quite some time.
Too many people seem to believe that just paying the weekly meeting fee and sitting through a meeting should somehow translate into weight loss -- not that I'm accusing you and your sister of doing that, but it is a common source of problems ...
Yeah, I think it's very doable.
It does get labor intensive and a little spendy. But I think what it's really doing for the wife and I is reprogramming how we eat.
Then tell me why, after losing 130 pounds in less than 8 months, my blood chemistry is better than when I started... my energy level is up... I sleep better... so on and so on. There's been no loss of strength or endurance (in fact, just the opposite). The worst problem I have is occasionally digestive irritation, and that can usually be linked to specific foods.
And it's really only in the last month or two that I've increased the amount of exercise, so that hasn't been that much of a factor, as much of the improvement came in the first few months.
I do eat some of the low-carb convenience foods, but they are a supplement, not the major part of my diet. That still comes primarily from foods that I (or Mrs. kevkrom) prepare from scratch.
I wish I knew, hopefully soon.. I see them regular price 4-6$ a package now.
I had a stockpile of about 50 in the freezer when I found them for $1 a pound package. Now the cheapest I can get it is for less than $2 and that's with a sale and coupon.
Hubby is a bacon fanatic :)
Congrats! Which plan did you do?
Good that it's worked for you. But I've known many people who've lost a lot less and have wound up having their gall bladders removed -- me included.
I hope you keep up the good work, and I'm curious to see how you're doing in 5 years. :)
Guess it depends on the individual(s)...we've been on Atkins for 7 months now and are lean and lovin' it! Having steak, pork chops, fish, lobster, shrimp is such a challenge and all those big salads not to mention the Atkins milk shakes, ice cream and of course the whip cream and cream cheese.....such a challenge!....:)
Thanks.
I'm looking for something sane.
Just at the moment, I'm in decent shape, because I have been doing the "Moving On The Cheap, Hauling Boxes, Light Beer and Granola Bar Diet".
but I know we are close to selling the old house and when winter comes, I'll get sedintary again.
I have a good friend who tried Atkins and she said that while it worked for a few weeks, she was always constipated and "your breath smells like a buzzard".
It also wiped her out by noon every day. No energy at ALL.
( My friend has MS and the meds are really rough on her as well....)
Atkins. I'm in a modified Phase II -- I'm not increasing my daily carb count, because I'm quite comfortable at 25/day, and I still have quite a ways to go. I also allow myself one "cheat meal" a month where I don't worry about what I eat (and I usually have one meal on a weekend where I have half a potato or the equivalent, which technically puts me over for the day).
My favorite is the TV commercial for the orange juice that claims to have HALF the carbs, HALF the calories, and HALF the sugars as regular orange juice. Gee, I can do that myself at home: dilute it with WATER!!! I bet it costs TWICE as much. LOL.
Yeah, those are problems I encountered with Atkins. Although after the first couple of weeks there are natural options to deal with that.
No beer on the South Beach diet. But I can start having wine tomorrow (preferably red, which works for me).
There's no doubt that it doesn't work for everyone, but for the ones it does, it seems to work well.
I do see my doc for checkups and blood work every 3-4 months, just to keep an eye on things.
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