Posted on 08/23/2004 12:55:32 PM PDT by NYC GOP Chick
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Food manufacturers who have stocked store shelves with low-carbohydrate versions of everything from spaghetti sauce to ice cream may find they are eating the costs themselves, as the low-carb fad peaks, analysts and industry observers said.
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"It's typical that one rushes into the party just when the party is breaking up," said William Leach, food industry analyst at Neuberger Berman.
Sales of low-carb branded foods surged $815 million, to $1.13 billion, in the 12 months ended June 13, according to market research firm Information Resources Inc. That includes both new brands like Atkins and Carb Solutions and extensions of existing brands -- like Unilever's Carb Options versions of Skippy peanut butter and Lipton soups.
But the number of people in the United States who say they are on low-carb diets like Atkins peaked in January at 9 percent, in a survey conducted by the NPD Group. It has since leveled off at about 7 percent, Harry Balzer, a vice president at the market research firm, said.
"The awareness has probably peaked," Balzer said.
The industry could have wasted "hundreds of millions" of dollars in reformulating and repackaging products as low-carb, Ken Harris, a consultant who works with consumer products and retail companies for Cannondale Associates. "Just to bring a product to market is very costly."
SAME FATE AS LOW-FAT?
Leach compared the low-carb trend with the low-fat phase in the early 1990s.
Nabisco, now a unit of Kraft Inc., launched the SnackWells brand of low-fat cookies and crackers, which was initially a hit with customers. At the beginning, retailers could not get as many packages as they wanted.
"It reminds me of 10 years ago, you had this fat phobia," Leach said. "SnackWells, one year it was on allocation. The next year you couldn't give them away."
IRI also said that the low-carb craze could go the way of low-fat. Brands like SnackWells and WOW! chips -- made by PepsiCo Inc.'s Frito-Lay unit with the controversial fat substitute olestra -- grew for about five years and have declined ever since, IRI said in a report this month.
"However, consumers may sustain interest in selected naturally low-carb products as they did with naturally low-fat yogurts," the report said. Popular foods that are naturally low in carbohydrates include bacon and eggs.
Even though the trend of people on low-carb diets seems to have peaked, it could be a while before low-carb consumption wanes, NPD's Balzer said.
"I bet it's going to be a year or so before we see declines in low-carb consumption," Balzer said, adding that consumers are likely to try various low-carb products to see if they want to include them in their normal eating habits. "If we're nothing, we are a nation that's tries."
Some of the newer low-carb products could also be repackaged to take advantage of the next big trend in food, Harris said, noting that some consumers are starting to focus more specifically on sugar than on overall carbohydrates.
But the focus on obesity remains a hurdle for food companies, Leach said.
"It's hard to be a food company and really take obesity seriously because your job is to sell food," he said.
i have my version of atkins cut out all starch and fatty foods.(no bacon etc.) lean fish chicken some red meat. starches in moderation and exercise. little or no sugar also. i pick one night a week (saturdays) to "pig out" lost 45lbs so far.
That may be true, but I've never bought anything just because it's "low carb" (although I do *love* the hokey marketing phrase "net carbs"), while I do tend to look for low-fat foods, when possible.
I have a significant amount to lose. I am down a total of 33 lbs from my heaviest.
Tomorrow I move to Phase II and the weight loss will slow down.
I just went back on Atkins at the beginning of the month. Total weight loss to date: 13 pounds.
I was never heavy, but I did go on Weight Watchers to hit an "ideal weight." It worked wonders, very quickly. It is just plain, smart eating.
The problem with the "low-carb" diets is the faddy processed foods themselves -- people load themselves up with the "low carb" cookies, chips, crackers, and ice creams thinking they are doing themselves favors. An unadulterated Atkins probably works reasonably well for at least an initial weight-loss kick -- simply because these kinds of junk foods are out.
It's pretty obvious, too, that alot of kids are fat because of the snack food and excessive sweets and potato-based products they eat. Our grandparents didn't do a bag of potato chips while watching a hour of tv. Nor were two pieces of cake a standard, nightly part of dinner. Plus, if you lived within a mile from school, there was no bus service (forget "car pool")--and you walked.
You don't lose muscle when you take in this much protein. The human body just doesn't need to attack the muscle.
Low carb works great if done right.
The problem is, all those low carb products - the bars, the ice cream, the pasta... all of it - are the kiss of death for this way of eating if you want to lose weight on it.
Most people who fail on Atkins do so because they are pigging out on that junk and think they are doing "low carb" because the box tells them they are.
When you lose too much overall weight in a very short period of time, you lose things you shouldn't.
It's the divorced, single man's diet. No cooking, dishes, cleanup, or worry about what to fix. They are all as skinny as a rail. They eat nothing but carbs and nicotine.
Sex nine times a day - 15 lbs two weeks
Just Kidding!!!
My physician disagrees with you. I can read his diploma in his office. Where did you get yours? ;-)
I trust the MSM on this issue as much as I do on politics. They have an agenda and it is the agenda of BigFood who pays a lot of money to the media to sell us processed foods each year.
The fact is LowCarb does work for many people but many people who think they are doing LowCarb, aren't really doing it right. So they don't lose, and often gain weight, when they do it wrong. I'm down over 70# in less than a year and I know many others who have been successful as well.
If you hit a plateau on Phase II, more than a week without a loss, then just do Phase I again for about three days. It ususally kick starts the system.
I like South Beach because it recognizes that sometimes we just need a treat, and that it won't break the bank. I don't feel hungry, and the craving for chips and cookies just isn't there. I do have some pork rinds every now and then, though. I consider those a treat these days, though I found some soy-flaxseed tortilla chips at Trader Joe's that are VEY good. I tried the lo-carb Doritos, made with soy protein, and they tasted like nacho flavored sawdust!
I'm kinda thinking I'll kick back into Phase I about once a month or so.
Yeah, I'm finding South Beach much more reasonable than Atkins (for me anyway). I did that other one (6-wk Body Makeover) last year and that worked okay, but I got tired of it pretty quickly.
But you're right, the cravings for the crap are gone.
I do miss my orange juice...
I've stayed on Phase I with the occasional "treat" of an extra 30-50g in a day. Not very frequently though.
One doesn't need to have an MD to know that losing large amounts of weight in very short periods of time is unhealthy. If your doctor thinks that's fine, then you might consider looking for a new doctor. One of things I do is put together reports on physician evaluations of medical malpractice cases (I get the notes and an outline, and put it into readable form), and I long ago stopped being shocked at the number of really stupid doctors out there.
While I'm not a physician, I am the daughter of one who agrees with me (and I am certified as a fitness trainer) and he received his MD from New York University. ;-)
Atkins works.. and you don't need eat only branded food.. most of that crap is phony.
1st week of Atkins and I've lost 4 pounds.. My cholesterol is 83...
No donuts, no pasta, no candy (that one was easy). There' are fads and definately one surrounding Atkins.. But I think it's the marketeers are the ones who got sucked into it.
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