Posted on 08/22/2004 9:08:26 AM PDT by dr4gey
The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 47% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 47%.
What was the previous poll number?
This is good news as I heard on the Beltway Boys that Kerry was way ahead of Bush with electoral votes. Bush needs Ohio and I am praying that with Nader on the ballot...Bush will win that state. He also needs PA...I just pray the gop grassroots voters show up in droves.
There is no change from yesterday. It was tied at 47 and Bush's approval was at 52. Which I actually think that may be a small victory from Bush, cause normally Kerry picks up on Sunday as Democrats traditionally poll better on the weekends and Republcans during the week. Bush's best numbers are usually on Thur-Fri Sat. Kerry's best numbers are usually on Sun-Mon-Tue
I am deeply saddened by my double posting.
Electoral vote tracking:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
I thought you were just being schizophrenic.
Bush will not get PA, unless the race turns sharphly in his favor.
He needs to carry OH, MO, NV, FL. Then (assuming WV and NH go to Kerry), we get 269-269 tie, and win in the House.
I think 48% national vote will be enough to give him OH and MO (he should do better in these states by about +2%, compared with his national average).
But FL is the problem. It is quite possible that W will do worse in FL, compared to his national numbers. In this case, he needs to get to 49.5-50%, and I don't see this happening.
Let's hope that we'll get some breaks again, as in 2000.
Bush - 52+
Kerry - 42
I certainly hope so.
Last time, the Pan Handle didn't get their chance to vote before the liberal press called the state for Gore. I'll bet they'll make that slap in the face up this election. I would!
I can't tell from your profile page what state you're in. As a Floridian, I'm curious to know why you think President Bush will do worse.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS. THIS IS NOT STATISTICAL NOISE.
Rasmussen tracks generic congressional ballots (GCB) along with the presidential race. GCB about now is probably almost as stable as partisan affiliation. Thus, it can be used to measure whether their sampling has skewed towards the GOP or not. The last time Bush improved (8/16), the GCB showed a strong move towards the GOP. I didn't post the good news when I saw it, because I presumed it the sudden shift in the GCB indicated statistical noise. This time, the GCB shows no move towards the GOP. Since I'm not too afraid of the GOP losing control of the Congress, I take this as good news.
>>Also, Republicans usually don't answer polls. <<
The history of polling does not bear this out. Even in 1994, polling showed the Republicans would sweep through the Senate. The poll sponsors simply didn't believe the results they were getting. But readers of the NY Post expected the sweep.
>>> As a Floridian, I'm curious to know why you think President Bush will do worse.
1. Retirees. Bush is doing badly in 65+ age group, worse than in 2000. They want more, more, more ..., and not happy with the drug benefit, I guess.
2. Cuban vote was energized in 2000 by Elian story. Not this time. Also, younger Cubans trend Democratic.
3. Jewish vote. No evidence so far that W made any inroads there.
That's why the Florida polls are so abysmal, and show that W is doing worse in FL than nationally (unlike in 2000). It is alarming, since winning FL is a must.
If there are any "truisms" in polling that are actually true, the pollsters would know them to be so and adjust their numbers accordingly.
That being said, if the affluent of either party are travelling in the summer on vacation and not available to answer phones then Bush's numbers may be depressed, because it would be the affluent of either party.
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