Posted on 08/20/2004 5:29:33 AM PDT by KMC1
According to a brand new Survey USAPoll that was commissioned by television stations KABC-Los Angeles, KPIX-San Francisco, KXTV-Sacramento, and KGTV-San Diego...Bush 46% vs. Kerry 49% is now within the margin of error. And this is occuring in a state that Democrats carried by 11pts in the year 2000.
Survey USA has had a fairly good track record in most of the polling work that it has done. This same poll shows the Senate race growing closer as well between BOXER (D) 48% and JONES 42% (R).
Here's how some of it breaks down:
589 Likely Voters (Not merely registered)
FOR PRESIDENT -
Bush/Cheney - 46%
Kerry/Edwards - 49%
Other - 3%
Undecided - 3%
FOR SENATE -
Bill Jones (R) - 42%
Barbara Boxer (D) - 48%
Other - 10%
Undecided - 1%
PRESIDENTIAL VOTES BY INDEX
Male - Bush/Cheney +11% (52/41)
Female - Kerry/Edwards +16% (56/40)
White - Bush/Cheney +9% (51/44)
Black - Kerry/Edwards +35% (63/28) (Bush/Cheney up from 9%)
Hispanic - Kerry/Edwards +10% (53/43) (Bush/Cheney up from 7%)
Military - Bush/Cheney +7% (50/43)
Non-Religious - Kerry/Edwards 14% (41/55)
Religious - Bush/Cheney +30% (63/33)
Central Valley - Bush/Cheney +21% (57/36)
Central Los Angeles - Kerry/Edwards +16% (55/39)
Inland Empire - Bush Cheney +23% (60/37)
Bay Area/North Coast - Kerry Edwards +25 (59/34)
Urban - Kerry/Edwards +18% (57/39)
Suburban - Bush/Cheney +5% (49/44)
Rural - Bush/Cheney +17% (50/33)
College Graduates - Bush/Cheney +9% (52/43)
(Excerpt) Read more at kmc.crosswalk.com ...
This is great news. And we haven't even had our convention yet. And I think the Bush/Cheney people have a surprise or two up their sleeve. And no, I don't mean a secret capture of OLB. LOL
The Peoples' Republic being too close to call?
Not even in Karl Rove's most perverse fantasies could this ever happen.
"But wait, there's this poll data..."
...and polls can be FReep'ed, and DU'ped, too.
I agree. I hope they spend next to no time and money in California. It would be a big mistake.
My recollection is that this poll severely over-sampled Republicans, resulting in this pleasant story. It looks good, but I'd need to several more like this before this gets any credence.
bump for if it might get close.
but is a useful reminder that all polls can be skewed in similarly opaque ways.
moral of the story: ignore the dern polls, and get out the GOP vote. Get your granny and your kid and your next door neighbor and his granny to go to the polls (assuming you have identified them all as Republicans and you live in one of the 29 battleground states.
The figure that I'm having trouble with is 35% blacks voting for Bush....can that be right?
Doesn't he usually draw about 10% of the black vote?
Why would the blacks in California vote any different than those in the rest of the country?
I also agree. This poll is probably an attempt to dupe Republicans into diverting resources away from the real battleground states. In fact I'd like to see a few polls showing Kerry as strong in Texas just to see how fast the Nuanced One puts on a cowboy hat and starts pontificating with a drawl.
No, they cannot. The online polls are not scientific and are rarely reported on.
I concur completely, babs. As one now living in Massachusetts, the only battleground here unfortunately is whether or not Kerry gets 90 or 99 percent of the vote. I've only lived here two weeks, and it's amazing to see first hand what a political insane asylum it is.
It's actually 28%. The difference is 35 percentage pts btw Kerry and Bush.
If Kerry starts spending more resources on California, you'll know California is in play. Boy I'm sure Michael Moore would be upset if California voted for Bush.
spend yer money in california, john kerry, spend yer money where you thot you was safe har har har
College graduates in California favor Bush by 9 percent over Kerry??
It is viscerally disgusting to blacks how sodomites have hijacked the symbolism of the civil rights movement.
I knew that it would cost Kerry black votes, considering what a secularist tone his candidacy exudes. Do not underestimate how deeply religious the black community is.
It is interesting to me that this is a problem on which white leftists are in incredible denial. No one on DU has ever, ever addressed the problem that the gay rights movement is alienating blacks.
They may have done their polling in my county. We're more republican than Orange County. In fact, around here, RR the Great is still the prez.
So, based on the stats....a likely Californian to vote for kerry/edwards would be a black/hispanic, atheist, urbanite woman....most likely with a lot of gay friends.
Sounds logical.
What about the news of WMDs being shipped into Syria being released in the last part of September? Wait & see.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.