Posted on 08/18/2004 3:44:26 PM PDT by RedStateWarrior
I'm a hard numbers kind of guy. I follow the state polls every evening after I get home from work, and there's a disturbing trend developing right now: most projections give Kerry a pretty good position in the electoral college.
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Here are a few sites of electoral projections:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
http://www.federalreview.com/
http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
http://www.race2004.net/
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There are a handful of states that I'm really concerned about. Bush should NOT be worrying about these states!!! Bush should be waltzing through these and focusing on Ohio and Florida!
Nevada: Rasmussen's latest poll gives Bush a 1% lead. What's less-often reported is how many California liberals are relocating to Nevada to work and even sometimes vote there.
Colorado: Survey USA has both candidates tied at 47%. Could this be affected by reverse coattails?
Missouri: I'd always thought that MO was getting more conservative, but the latest Zogby has Bush down by 1%. I know, I know.. Zogby (yuck!), but I've seen other polls with this race close.
Tennesse: Again, how? Bush leads 48-46 in the latest Survey USA poll. That Frenchie is doing better than the Gorebot did in 2000!
Virginia: Bush holds a 3% lead here. I have faith in this state. My brother lives there outside of DC, and he says "no way" to it going Kerry. They're trying to appeal to vets, but with no good results. Still, 3% is a bit close for my comfort.
North Carolina: Sure, the Breck Girl is on the ticket, but this state was a landslide for Bush in 2000. Now it's statistically tied.
Then there are the swing states..
Ohio: I really began to worry when I saw today's Gallup numbers. Kerry has a 10% lead among registered voters, and 2% among likelies. Bush can't afford to lose this one.
Florida: the latest 3 polls have Bush trailing by an average of 6%. That's scary. I can't see us winning without Florida, unless we pull a hat trick and take Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin in return.
New Hampshire: Yeah, don't laugh.. 4EVs. But the election might be that close, and it looks like Kerry has a consistent 4 or 5% lead here.
What also bothers me is that undecideds almost always break by about 60 to 70% with the challenger. I see Bush on TV all the time, making his case (he's gotten quite good at it lately), but those damn TV goons always seem to twist things around on him. {And you know that the media are gonna have a field day with the 1000th GI death. Sickos.} I know that our convention is coming soon, and that we should get some bounce from it, but am I being a worrywart?
I'm hoping that he lies during a debate and that we get to nail him on it. Just like Gore did about visiting hurricane wreckage..
Is he for real?
When in danger, or in doubt,
Run around and scream and shout.
If there's one thing that never ceases to irritate me, it's how fast some of the folks on this site turn on newbies or people who don't post often.
There are legitimate zot-able troll posts, but I would submit that over the last year a lot of potential Freepers have been disillusioned or turned away by some of the nastiness that comes out from some folks I'm embarrassed to share ideologies with.
Welcome to Free Republic. Beware of friendly fire.
What did "The Forehead" say?
You arent supposed to drink the bongwater..
Why don't you look at how much ground Kerry has lost since his convention.... and you have to know that the Dem-maggots are trying to pull off a hugely united front that is crumbling everyday... This is Bush in a landslide.. besides look at the market last couple of days ... cpi... even old Sadr came around... now don't be gettin all chicken little on us looking like John Kerry running out of the capital on 9/11...
It will be fine..
Barbequed troll must taste pretty good....
Absolutely not. This is the same person that has posted the same "sky is falling" polls for a few days now. It is pretty funny now. Read his info page. Reads exactly like a liberal would think of a conservative.
Sure! Even though I only drink water!
I guess this would be a cyber beer?
Is THIS A ZOT ot NOT???
It's OK, kitty's patient...
/john
Has your Beeber been stuned? I would certainly panic if I had a stuned Beeber!
Check your mail.
That way,should President Bush lose,America can still win-by thwarting Kerry and his Krew at every possible opportunity.
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