Vanity Post: Is it time to panic?

Election Projection 2004 ^

[RedStateWarrior]

I'm a hard numbers kind of guy. I follow the state polls every evening after I get home from work, and there's a disturbing trend developing right now: most projections give Kerry a pretty good position in the electoral college.

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Here are a few sites of electoral projections:

http://www.electoral-vote.com

http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

http://www.federalreview.com/

http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

http://www.race2004.net/

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There are a handful of states that I'm really concerned about. Bush should NOT be worrying about these states!!! Bush should be waltzing through these and focusing on Ohio and Florida!

Nevada: Rasmussen's latest poll gives Bush a 1% lead. What's less-often reported is how many California liberals are relocating to Nevada to work and even sometimes vote there.

Colorado: Survey USA has both candidates tied at 47%. Could this be affected by reverse coattails?

Missouri: I'd always thought that MO was getting more conservative, but the latest Zogby has Bush down by 1%. I know, I know.. Zogby (yuck!), but I've seen other polls with this race close.

Tennesse: Again, how? Bush leads 48-46 in the latest Survey USA poll. That Frenchie is doing better than the Gorebot did in 2000!

Virginia: Bush holds a 3% lead here. I have faith in this state. My brother lives there outside of DC, and he says "no way" to it going Kerry. They're trying to appeal to vets, but with no good results. Still, 3% is a bit close for my comfort.

North Carolina: Sure, the Breck Girl is on the ticket, but this state was a landslide for Bush in 2000. Now it's statistically tied.

Then there are the swing states..

Ohio: I really began to worry when I saw today's Gallup numbers. Kerry has a 10% lead among registered voters, and 2% among likelies. Bush can't afford to lose this one.

Florida: the latest 3 polls have Bush trailing by an average of 6%. That's scary. I can't see us winning without Florida, unless we pull a hat trick and take Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin in return.

New Hampshire: Yeah, don't laugh.. 4EVs. But the election might be that close, and it looks like Kerry has a consistent 4 or 5% lead here.

What also bothers me is that undecideds almost always break by about 60 to 70% with the challenger. I see Bush on TV all the time, making his case (he's gotten quite good at it lately), but those damn TV goons always seem to twist things around on him. {And you know that the media are gonna have a field day with the 1000th GI death. Sickos.} I know that our convention is coming soon, and that we should get some bounce from it, but am I being a worrywart?

[Stentor]

RedStateWarrior

A name right out of the DEMPERV handbook.

[Chesterbelloc]

The sky is falling!

Wouldn't that make states turn blue? :^)

[Toespi]

I am of the belief that there is a poll conspiracy going on out there. I think the Dems are using psychological warfare in that if it appears Kerry is mainstream enough to be even with Bush, they can sway voters towards Kerry.

[cmsgop]

Yes, You are a worrywart. Don't be a "Girlie Man" too.

[NavySEAL F-16]

Welcome to Free Republic.

BUSH WILL WIN!

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Welcome to FR.

[Indy Pendance]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1192262/posts

[jbstrick]

Don't post your first day of membership. It's not good for your health.

[Question_Assumptions]

No. Read Unfit for Command and remember that (A) the veteran vote is important in a lot of those swing states (e.g., PA, WV, and OH) and (B) it's starting to get legs.

[COEXERJ145]

RedStateWarrior

Since Aug 18, 2004

[pantseatflyer]

yeah, panic. have at it.

[woofie]

Yea..zot the sucker

[Happy2BMe]

Is it time to PANIC - ping.

Answer: Not yet.

Electoral College Breakdown 2004, August 15th Update

[ConservativeMan55]

Here is RedStateWarrior's Info Page. Couldn't the commie trolls come up with something better than this?

"Hi,

I live here in Texas (in Austin - but not much longer, hopefully), and I'm growing weary about what's happening to our country. We have control of the entire government, and yet we still see immigration rules being relaxed! You almost need a friggin' interpreter in the southwestern U.S - it's really enraging. Why can't we build a wall down here?

Then there are the sodomites everywhere on TV, being promoted as "normal." Sick. And to think that our kids could be watching this garbage.

And don't get me started on the deficit.

I discovered this site about a week ago. My wife is already beginning to call it "The Other Woman," since I spend so much time reading here now. Thanks to Jim for such a great resource - it's an anchor for my sanity and faith in the human race.

Mark"

[TonyInOhio]

[Phsstpok]

is it time to panic

No.

End of thread.

- 30 -

[Nachum]

Joseph Farah and WND predicted a Kerry victory.

[truth_seeker]

Day one. Big Splash.

[Always Right]

Is this your first elections??? Polls move 5 points on a sneeze. Debates, campaign, conventions will all have impact. Way too early.

[RasterMaster]

Kerry's boat has overturned, or sinking fast. Consider his campaign bullets DEAD in the water.