Electoral College Breakdown 2004, August 15th Update

Daly Thoughts & Dales' Electoral College Breakdown2004 ^ | 8/15/04 | Gerry Daly

[Dales]

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Panic Time?

The first convention ended. The second, approaching. Individual state polls agreed that the challenger was in a commanding position. Key battleground states such as Oregon, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Florida, New Hampshire, and Iowa were all polling very well for him. To a lesser degree, so were West Virginia, Maine, and Arkansas. Washington was in his ledger. So was Michigan, and Ohio, and Minnesota.

An extremely dire set of circumstances, indeed. By the ECB scorecard, the challenger had over 300 electoral votes heading his way. His opponent, despite having administration powers to assist his campaign, only had about 150 electoral votes in his ledger.

The date was August 18th, 2000. As it happened, Al Gore made a race of it anyways.

On August 18th of 2000, before the first of the polls in the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention had hit, Vice-President Al Gore was in some very dangerous waters. States that were leaning or better favored the challenger, Governor George W. Bush, by a whopping margin of 346-118; an amount that makes today's margin of 255 for Kerry, 187 for Bush seem quite small. When tossup states were factored in, Mr. Bush enjoyed a 388-150 lead.

As we all know, the election did not end up playing out as the numbers at that point indicated it might. Mr. Gore enjoyed a substantial convention bounce which put him in the lead. Later, some erratic debate performances caused him to slip behind. At the end, he caught Mr. Bush in the popular vote, and the election ended up being one of the closest in the history of the nation. But in between the Republican and Democratic conventions, it did not appear that it would be the case.

The key reason that Mr. Gore enjoyed such a large convention bounce is that, until then, his support within his own party was quite low. The majority of the movement in the polls came from self-identified Democrats coming home to the Democratic candidate. Where before the convention he had been getting a percentage in the mid-70s of Democrats, afterwards he was getting 90%. Senator Kerry did not get much of a convention bounce primarily due to the fact that he already had Democrat support in the high 80s.

But that was not the only reason that Mr. Gore bounced ahead. Prior to the Democrat convention, independents favored Mr. Bush by a double digit margin in most polls (cases in point, the Los Angeles Times, and ABC News). After the Democratic Convention, Mr. Gore led within that group. Currently, most polls show Mr. Kerry leading the President by double digits among independents. This is the group President Bush is going to have to sway in order to score any convention bounce due to the fact that he already has the overwhelming support of Republicans.

In the aftermath of the Republican convention in 2000, several polls showed Mr. Bush getting over 50% of the vote, including polls by ABC News and the Washington Post, CNN and Time, CNN and USA Today and Gallup, and the Los Angeles Times. This election cycle, just Time and the Democracy Corps (a Democratic polling firm) have put Mr. Kerry over the 50% mark after his convention. After the 2000 Democratic Convention, several polls showed Mr. Bush dropping to just 40% of the vote. So far, after the 2004 Democratic convention, the lowest result for the President has been a 42% in an Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Montior/TIPP poll.

But most strikingly, after the Republican National Convention in 2000, Bush's standing in the Electoral College Breakdown's calculated national result was, despite the overwhelming advantage he had in the electoral count, just 44% of the popular vote. This year, going in to the Republican convention, he is at 45%.

Without question, if the election were to occur today, Senator John F. Kerry would be elected. However, those supporters of the President who are overly dismayed right now, and those Kerry supporters who are feeling extremely confident, are getting way ahead of themselves. Less than a month after Bush had a 228 electoral vote lead in leaning states, it was down to just 58. His 7.5% popular vote lead was down to three points. Today, that 68 electoral vote lead among leaning states that Kerry has looks awfully large. With the Republican convention and all of the debates yet to come, it should not.

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This Week's Polling Updates Overview

Lots of polls since the last ECB update 11 days ago, with most of the movement reflecting the modest 4 point bounce that Mr. Kerry received from his convention.

The scoreboard:

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Kerry 255, Bush 187	Kerry 316, Bush 206
ECB Classic	Kerry 260, Bush 151	Kerry 311, Bush 221
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry 265, Bush 151	Kerry 321, Bush 211
Calculated National Result	Kerry 46.5%, Bush 44.9%

For the trends, the changes in each are as follows:

ECB	Kerry +31, Bush unch.	Kerry +47, Bush -27
ECB Classic	Kerry +21, Bush -33	Kerry +12, Bush +4
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry +21, Bush -15	Kerry +11, Bush -17
Calculated National Result	Kerry -0.6%, Bush -0.4%

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	Minnesota
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/14/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	42.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +4.3
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	589 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.8%	Kerry	49.0%	Kerry +3.2
			589 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +2.3
7/16/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
7/24/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2

Punditry: A slightly better result for Kerry than the last Strategic Vision poll, but still within the Slight Advantage for Kerry range regardless of the polling company's affiliation. The measured approval gap is 4.

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	Iowa
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Even
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +8
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
			604 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
5/27/04	SurveyUSA	Link	794 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	614 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.7%	Kerry	50.4%	Kerry +4.7
			614 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	47.7%	Kerry +3.3
7/21/04	Selzer & Co.	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
7/23/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	641 LV	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +3
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2

Punditry: Strategic Vision's polling has been right in line with other pollsters' results, both here and in most other states. Slight Advantage for Kerry.

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	Arkansas
	Electoral Votes: 6
	2000 Result
	Bush 51%
	Gore 46%

Background: Arkansas votes Republican, although if there is a southerner running against a northerner it will go Democrat. Carter beat Ford, and Clinton won twice. Republicans won all the rest since LBJ. Humphrey came in third here, behind Wallace.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/8/04	Arkansas State University	Link	Adults	5%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	565 RV	4.2%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
5/2/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	45%	Push
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	546 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	47%	Bush +2
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	546 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	47%	Bush +2
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Push

Punditry: No real change from last month's Rasmussen result (a single point better for the President), and that leaves Arkansas right where it is at Slight Advantage for Bush, although an argument could be made that it belongs in Tossup. Bush has a 7 point approval gap in Arkansas.

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	New Mexico
	Electoral Votes: 5
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 48%

Background: No state, not even Florida, was closer in the last election than New Mexico. Prior to Clinton breaking through, the Republicans had carried the state for 6 consecutive elections, often by significant margins. Both times that Clinton carried New Mexico, the Perot vote played a significant factor. The strong showing Perot made here suggests that this is a state concerned with Mexico, both from an immigration perspective and from a jobs perspective.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	43%	Dem +3
3/15/04	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque**	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/4/04	Rasmussen (L)	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option, Badnarik an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7

** Poll was not exactly a matchup poll, but rather a comparison of the favorability for each.

Punditry: The Badnarik campaign commissioned this poll, and Nader was not included. The deadline for inclusion on the ballot is in September. The result is in line with the American Research Group, but my policy is that polls commissioned by a party do not cause ECB category redesignations. Slight Advantage for Kerry.

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	New Mexico
	Electoral Votes: 5
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 48%

Background: No state, not even Florida, was closer in the last election than New Mexico. Prior to Clinton breaking through, the Republicans had carried the state for 6 consecutive elections, often by significant margins. Both times that Clinton carried New Mexico, the Perot vote played a significant factor. The strong showing Perot made here suggests that this is a state concerned with Mexico, both from an immigration perspective and from a jobs perspective.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	43%	Dem +3
3/15/04	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque**	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	47%	Push
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/4/04	Rasmussen (L)	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option, Badnarik an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7

** Poll was not exactly a matchup poll, but rather a comparison of the favorability for each.

Punditry: The Badnarik campaign commissioned this poll, and Nader was not included. The deadline for inclusion on the ballot is in September. The result is in line with the American Research Group, but my policy is that polls commissioned by a party do not cause ECB category redesignations. Slight Advantage for Kerry.

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			New Hampshire
			Electoral Votes: 4
			2000 Result
			Bush 48%
			Gore 47%

Background: Clinton won twice here, and the second time would have been even without Perot. The first time, he likely would have lost. Johnson won here. Other than that, Republican wins back through Dewey beating Truman. The elder Bush crushed the man who Kerry was Lt. Governor for, Mike Dukakis.

Both last time and this time, New Hampshire started as a slight advantage for Bush. When looking at the other offices, it is hard to understand just why this state is not more firmly in his control. The Republicans hold all the House seats, both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, and hold all major executive branch offices, while having a 37%-26% registration advantage.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/27/03	Franklin Pierce College	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Even
9/11/03	American Research Group	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +14
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
12/10/03	American Research Group	NA	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +12
10/16/03	Research 2000	Link	RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	39%	Bush +12
1/20/04	Associated Press	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	55%	Kerry	40%	Bush +15
2/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	511 LV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +15
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader an option	4.6%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
3/18/04	American Research Group	Link	463 RV, Nader not an option	4.6%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
4/1/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
4/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/26/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	491 LV	4.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +4
6/9/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/20/04	Becker Group	Link	401 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
6/20/04	Becker Group	Link	401 RV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
7/20/04	University of New Hampshire	Link	LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +5
			LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
7/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
			600 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
8/5/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
			600 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

Punditry: American Research Group measures a 5 point bounce in New Hampshire for neighboring Kerry. That sounds about right for me at this point, and moves New Hampshire to Leaning Towards Kerry.

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	Oregon
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Gore 46.96%
	Bush 46.52%

Background: The last 10 elections have gone 1-5-4. Without Perot, Clinton would likely have lost his initial run here though. From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% here was Michael Dukakis; Reagan and Nixon each broke 50% in their re-elect.

In early 2000, Oregon was polling strongly for Bush. The left coast influence eventually took hold and turned it into a very even state, and it starts this year as a tossup. Democrats hold 4 out of 5 Representative seats, while the Senate seats are divided, just as control of the state legislative chambers is split. The Democrats hold most of the executive branch positions. Democrats hold a 3% lead in registration, 39%-36%.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/5/04	Hibbits	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +5
4/7/04	University of Oregon	Link	440 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
4/29/04	Research2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
5/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	45%	Push
5/10/04	Research2000	Link	603 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +4
5/10/04	Research2000	Link	603 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
5/10/04	Riley Research	Link	776 LV	3.51%	Bush	44%	Kerry	39%	Bush +5
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
6/1/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6

Punditry: From an eight point lead to a six point one; a difference well within the range typically explained by random statistical variance. The approval gap sits at five points.

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	Pennsylvania
	Electoral Votes: 21
	2000 Result
	Gore 51%
	Bush 46%

Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/13/03	Quinnipiac	Link	952 RV	3.2%	Bush	56%	Kerry	34%	Bush +22
10/9/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,116 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
11/23/03	Muhlenberg College	Link	430 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	40%	Bush +7
12/14/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,092 RV	3%	Bush	50%	Kerry	42%	Bush +8
2/18/04	Quinnipiac	Ling	1,356 RV	2.7%	Bush	45%	Kerry	50%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Keystone Poll	Link	392 RV	4.9%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Dem +1
3/?/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	RV	?%	Bush	?%	Kerry	?%	Push
3/3/04	Pennsylvania Public Mind	Link	1750 Adults	2.4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
3/11/04	Survey USA	Link	802 RV	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +2
3/15/04	Qunnipiac	Link	1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option)	3	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
			1,022 RV (Nader given as an option)	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/29/04	Keystone Poll	Link	565 RV	4.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	40%	Bush +6
4/19/04	Quinnipiac	Link	769 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
			769 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	39%	Bush +6
4/25/04	Pew Research	Link	867 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	42%	Push
5/3/04	Bennett, Petts, And Blumenthal (D)	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
5/7/04	Susquehanna Polling (R)	Link	650 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
5/14/04	Muhlenberg College	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
5/25/04	Quinnipiac	Link	701 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
6/9/04	SurveyUSA	Link	684 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/22/04	Quinnipiac	Link	839 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +1
			839 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/11/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,157 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
			1,157 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
7/20/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	815 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +10
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	748 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
8/4/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5

Punditry: One of these recent polls is not like the others. Dales' rule of thumb: when one pollster is showing things markedly different than all other pollsters, that pollster is probably the one who is off. Pennsylvania remains Leaning Towards Kerry.

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			Hawaii
			Electoral Votes: 4
			2000 Result
			Gore 55%
			Bush 37%

Background: Since McKinley annexed Hawaii and it became a state, only twice has it gone Republican: Nixon's re-election against McGovern and Reagan's re-election against Mondale. It has rarely been close.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
8/3/04	SMS Research	Link	685 RV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	48%%	Kerry +7

Punditry: Perhaps I had categorized Hawaii too far to the left, as my buddy Coop had been trying to tell me. Not that I think it will become competitive unless the race markedly changes, but it is not in the safe range. By this poll it should go into the "Leaning" designation, but I want another poll before I do that (always a problem with Hawaii though). Strong Advantage for Kerry.

Oddly, it does not appear that Democrats have fully "come home" for Kerry here. Bush gets 16% of Democrats. In this heavily Democratic state, that is not enough, but it is interesting.

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	Maine
	Electoral Votes: 4
	2000 Result
	Gore 49%
	Bush 44%

Background: Despite having only a single more electoral vote than tiny North Dakota, Maine gets a bit more attention due to its proximity to the media hotbeds in New England. However, it is rarely listed as a swing state for the coming election, which is a mistake. Bush lost to Gore by only 5 points last time, and over the past 10 elections it has split evenly between the parties. The best way to describe Maine is streaky, as those elections have been Democrats for two straight, Republicans for five straight, and now Democrats for the last three. Perhaps it is because Nader picked up 5% that people assume that Maine will be less competitive this time.

Maine is currently a slight advantage for Democrats, which is a change from ECB 2000 where it started as a slight Bush advantage. While the Republicans hold both Senate seats, everything else is in the hands of the Democrats, who enjoy a 31%-29% registration lead.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +11
9/12-26/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +9
3/3/04	Omnibus Poll/Strategic Marketing Services	Link	400 RV	5.0%	Bush	38%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +13
5/20/04	Critical Insights	Link	552 RV	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	35%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +19
6/12/04	Strategic Marketing Services	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	41.0%	Kerry	43.5%	Kerry +2.5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4

Punditry: Still relatively close, especially considering how Kerry is from a neighboring state. Slight Advantage for Kerry. According to Rasmussen, "Kerry has secured the vote from just 70% of Maine liberals. Bush is supported by 71% of the state's conservatives. Among moderates, Kerry leads 54% to 36%."

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	Michigan
	Electoral Votes: 17
	2000 Result
	Gore 51%
	Bush 46%

Background: 2-5-3 in the last ten elections. Without Perot, it likely would have been 2-6-2. Since Lyndon Johnson, only Reagan in his re-elect has approached 60%. Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Michigan has gone from leaning Bush to having a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have 9 of 15 Representatives, Democrats hold both Senate seats, while Republicans hold both houses of the state legislature. The state executive is split; Democrats hold the Governor and Lt. Governor positions while Republicans have the Secretary of State and Attorney General slots.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/26/03	Epic/MRA	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	48%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Bush +7
9/21/03	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Unnamed Democrat	49%	Dem +5
12/10/03	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	53%	Kerry	43%	Bush +10
2/3/04	Survey USA	Link	724 LV	3.7%	Bush	46%	Kerry	51%	Dem +5
2/22/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	49%	Dem +4
3/1/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
3/14/04	Marketing Resource Group	Link	600 RV	4.1%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/1/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
4/4/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
5/2/04	Survey USA	Link	536 LV	4.3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/12/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	413 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	40%	Bush +4
5/31/04	Survey USA	Link	567 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6
6/6/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	40%	Bush +2
6/30/04	Survey USA	Link	594 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
6/30/04	Detroit News/Mitchell Research	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	43%	Bush +1
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/1/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/8/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
7/8/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/17/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
8/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	608 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
8/10/04	Epic/MRA	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

Punditry: Still Leaning Towards Kerry but indicative of some movement since the last Epic/MRA poll. I am not sure why but they are still including Nader in their poll, but the best information I have says there is no way that Nader can appear on the Michigan ballot.

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	New Jersey
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Gore 56%
	Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/4/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	643 RV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +6
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader not an option	2.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
5/16/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,129 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
6/20/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,167 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +6
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
7/26/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	834 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +2
7/28/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +10
7/30/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	624 RV	4%	Bush	32%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +20
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	38%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +13
8/2/04	Quinnipiac	Link	996 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	36%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +13
8/9/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
			801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +12

Punditry: Strategic Vision checks in right in the same neighborhood as everyone else, although showing that Nader does draw away from Kerry somewhat in the Garden state (he is on the ballot there). There is no approval gap to speak of, which suggests that there is not much room for growth for the President unless perceptions change. New Jersey remains a Strong Advantage for Kerry.

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			Florida
			Electoral Votes: 27
			2000 Result
			Bush 48.85%
			Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as nearly every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3
5/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	723 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	38%	Bush +10
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
			1,209 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	LV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/20/04	Insider Advantage	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
7/19/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
			600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/21/04	LA Times	Link	729 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	44%	Bush +1
7/21/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	47%	Bush +3
			699 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	46%	Bush +4
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
8/4/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	48%	Push
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	47%	Bush +1
8/5/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +7
8/10/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,094 RV, Nader Not An Option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
			1,094 RV, Nader An Option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +6

Punditry: At this point it appears that Florida is Leaning Towards Kerry, showing that in this key state the Senator enjoyed about a 7 point bounce. If that holds then this would obviously be extremely bad news for the President.

Bush and Kerry are getting pretty much identical support from within their own parties, but Kerry is winning independents by 17 points- a margin that is not uncommon in the period between conventions. One bit of caution for Kerry is that Nader, who will be on the ballot in Florida, gets 10% of the independent vote when he is added to the mix. This shows that some of Kerry's support is soft on his left flank.

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			Ohio
			Electoral Votes: 20
			2000 Result
			Bush 50%
			Gore 46%

Background: Since Truman, Ohio has gone Democrat four times. LBJ crushed Goldwater, Carter edged Ford by an extremely slim margin, and Clinton won twice, both times relying on Perot heavily.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/7/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	59%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Bush +23
9/19/03	Ohio Poll	Link	RV	4%	Bush	57%	Kerry	38%	Bush +19
3/16/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
3/24/04	Ohio Poll	Link	632 RV	3.9%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
4/2/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,344 RV	2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/13/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
5/25/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	1500 RV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	44%	Bush +2
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	722 RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +3
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	41%	Bush +4
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
7/19/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
7/22/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +2
7/22/04	Gallup	Link	639 LV, Nader not an option	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +6
			639 LV, Nader an option	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/23/04	Columbus Dispatch	Link	3,047 RV	2%	Bush	47%	Kerry	44%	Bush +3
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
8/3/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
			801 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
8/11/04	American Research Group	Link	LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3

Punditry: I am going to classify Ohio, for the time being, as Slight Advantage for Kerry. However, I am not confident that is the correct designation; this is close to the best result for the President this year in an ARG Ohio poll. Further, there have been 18 polls taken in Ohio this campaign season. Of these, eight have shown Kerry ahead-- including all four ARG polls.

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	New York
	Electoral Votes: 31
	2000 Result
	Gore 60%
	Bush 35%

Background: From 1960 onward, Republicans have carried the Empire State only three times. Nixon beat McGovern, Reagan beat Carter, and Reagan beat Mondale. Even Dukakis won here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Dem +7
9/23/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +16
10/28/03	Quinnipiac	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Dem +8
11/19/03	Zogby	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Dem +5
1/7/04	Marist	Link	617 RV	4%	Bush	34%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Dem +2
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader an option	2.7%	Bush	35%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +14
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader not an option	2.7%	Bush	36%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +17
4/15/04	Marist	Link	602 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +18
4/22/04	Siena Researh Institute	Link	625 RV	3.9%	Bush	32%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	57%	Kerry +23
6/14/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,466 RV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +18
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	30%	Kerry	58%	Kerry +28
7/15/04	Siena Research	Link	604 LV	4%	Bush	29%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +22
8/9/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,161 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	35%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +18
			1,161 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	35%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +20

Punditry: Still sitting at Safe for Kerry. Bush's approval rating is lower in New York (37%) than just about anywhere except DC.

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	Washington
	Electoral Votes: 11
	2000 Result
	Gore 50%
	Bush 45%

Background: The Democrats have won the last four, and 6 of the last 10, with all four Republican wins coming consecutively (Nixon, Ford, ReaganX2). It is unclear as to if Clinton would have won the first time here sans Perot; it would likely have been extremely close. The Dukakis/Bush race was very close. The Clinton/Dole race was not.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/5/04	SurveyUSA	NA	975 RV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +1
2/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	975 RV	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +12
3/24/04	SurveyUSA	Link	698 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +4
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
4/5/04	The Elway Poll	NA	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +5
4/18/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
6/4/04	SurveyUSA	Link	654 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +5
6/11/04	Moore Information (R)	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
6/11/04	Mason-Dixon**	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
6/24/04	Moore Information (R)	NA	500 RV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +6
8/2/04	SurveyUSA	Link	585 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +8
8/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +9
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7

** Done for a 'private public policy client'.

Punditry: Washington is still Leaning Towards Kerry, although less close than most of the other 'leaning' states. The President has a five point approval gap in Washington.

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	California
	Electoral Votes: 55
	2000 Result
	Gore 53%
	Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV		3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	455 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +9
4/17/04	Rasmussen	Link	502 LV	5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
5/6/04	SurveyUSA	Link	635 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	40%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +15
5/24/04	Field	Link	647 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +14
7/12/04	Public Policy Institute of California	Link	1,378 LV	3%	Bush	38%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +11
7/22/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +11
7/25/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	55%	Kerry +18
8/4/04	Field	Link	633 LV	3.4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
8/11/04	Strategic Vision (R)	Link	801 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
			801 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +10

Punditry: The good news for President Bush is that California is about as close as some proported battleground states, such as Washington. The bad news is that this is not because California has gotten closer. California remains a Strong Advantage for Kerry.

---

	North Carolina
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Bush 56%
	Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
6/16/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
7/12/04	Gallup	Link	680 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	41%	Bush +15
7/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
7/14/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5
7/26/04	SurveyUSA	Link	906 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
7/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	45%	Bush +5
8/11/04	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3

Punditry: North Carolina has been floating right around the border between the leaning and slight designations, and the latest Research2000 result shows the margin just slightly below that threshold. Of the last five polls, two have been in the slight advantage range including this one, and three have been in the leaning category. Either designation would be perfectly appropriate, but at this point I will leave it at Leaning Towards Bush, because 1) more of the recent polls have fit that designation, and 2) the state normally goes Republican. If the next result for the Tar Heel state shows the race this close, the designation will change.

---

Effective National Popular Results: Kerry 46.5%, Bush 44.9%

Kerry					Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	OR (7) K47-B41 7/31/04	WV (5) K47-B44 7/28/04	NV (5) K49-B45 7/23/04	VA (13) B49-K46 7/31/04	CO (9) B48-K43* 6/18/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ND (3)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	PA (21) K51-B43 8/4/04	ME (4) K48-B44 7/31/04	MO (11) B50-K46 7/31/04	AR (6) B46-K46 7/31/04	AZ (10) B48-K45 8/1/04	SC (8) B51-K44 7/12/04	NE (5)
CT (7) K50-B32* 6/28/04	MD (10) K53-B39 6/30/04	NH (4) K49-B42 8/5/04	WI (10) K49-B46*R 8/2/04	-	-	TN (11) B48-K46 8/2/04	LA (9) B54-K38 7/??/04	WY (3)
MA (12) K56-B30 7/28/04	IL (21) K54-B39 7/31/04	MI (17) K49-B42 8/10/04	MN (10) K47-B45*R 8/3/04	-	-	NC (15) B48-K45 8/11/04	KY (8) B52-K42 7/26/04	MS (6) B61-K30 4/21/04
NY (31) K55-B35* 8/9/04	NJ (15) K49-B40*R 8/9/04	FL (27) K47-B41* 8/10/04	IA (7) K48-B46*R 8/3/04	-	-	-	GA (15) B51-K42*R 8/2/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
-	HI (4) K48-B41 8/3/04*	WA (11) K39-B42*R 8/11/04	NM (5) K50-B43*L 8/4/04	-	-	-	-	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	CA (55) K53-B41*R 8/11/04	-	OH (20) K48-B45 8/11/04	-	-	-	-	ID (4) B55-K25 6/14/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B55-K37 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AK (3) B56-K33*R 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B59-K35 7/??/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B47-K26* 7/12/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B56-K34 7/28/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
57	111	87	61	16	19	45	43	99
255			96			187

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

---

Last week's quiz:

"Everyone and his sister has heard time and again that no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Well, there's a less-heralded factoid that no Democrat has won the White House without winning a certain state. Do you happen to know which state that is?"

AntiGuv is going to have to speak up to verify, but unless I am mistaken, no Democrat has won the White House without winning Missouri, and since Arkansas has been in the union, it too. AntiGuv, how did I do?

He provides this week's question as well. "No Republican has ever won the White House without winning two states. One is Ohio, the other is ... ?"

[Dales]

Ping

[Prime Choice]

I'll never understand how Kerry can possibly lead in this contest when all he offers up are lies, vague platitudes and contradictory position statements.

[John Lenin]

There are two issues that can put Bush over the top, gay marriage and the stopping the illegal invasion of America. Don't hold your breath for him to step up to the plate on either issue.

[COEXERJ145]

I'll never understand how Kerry can possibly lead in this contest when all he offers up are lies, vague platitudes and contradictory position statements.

As long as ARG polls are added to the mix, Kerry will always be ahead. I have yet to see one poll of theirs that isn't sauced by a nice pro-Dem margin.

[Numbers Guy]

I believe Nader will be certified as an independent on the Michigan ballot based on the more than 30,000 petition signatures his people submitted (with the help of the GOP).

[Reagan79]

Ohio and Florida is a must win for the President. If not he has to flip the table in a bunch of Gore / Kerry states.

[ableChair]

Without question, if the election were to occur today, Senator John F. Kerry would be elected.

This entire article is rubish. As of now Bush commands a larger popular vote. Check the electronic markets, which are far more accurate. The data they use here is garbage...and propaganda.

[GeronL]

Many polls are weighted toward the Democrats but how do we measure that?

[Squantos]

Well this poll just makes me all warm and fuzzy......not......damn , it reads like GW has lost already ?

Is this info valid in your opinion ?

Stay safe !

[over3Owithabrain]

You do remember Clinton was elected twice? Bush is in heap big trouble. We're all waiting for his trump cards, but he has run a shitty campaign this entire year. The economy is slowing at the wrong time too. We will look back someday at the "No WMDs" as the turning point. Before that W had high approval, after that he started tanking.

[Sam Spade]

I think the answer going back to 1860 is New Hampshire. (I had to look this up, but I would have guessed it anyway). Though Alaska and Arizona have never gone Dem during Rep victories also.

[MikefromOhio]

Bush had better get moving....


I am starting to worry for one....convention or no convention....there is a lot of Anti-Bush sentiment

[COEXERJ145]

Like I said, as long as ARG polls are included, it is going to give Lurch a nice big bounce. They are always bias toward the Rats.

Also, I find it interesting how one pro-Kerry poll shoves a state into the Kerry column while the best with pro-Bush polls is a "tossup".

[RockinRight]

No, Gallup has W ahead. This poll is s%it.

[Texasforever]

This entire article is rubish.

No it isn't. I am becoming more and more convinced that this country is about to commit national suicide. The other factor is the absolute across the board naked partisanship of the main stream media. In my 6 decades of life I have never seen the media so open about their preferences and their suppression of anything that is positive for the GOP candidate. I don't know how Bush can counteract this.

[HarryCaul]

Pfft. Bush has run a fantastic campaign, whereas Kerry has had nothing but a series of misteps. There is one thing, and one thing only supporting Kerry at this point, and that's anti-Bush sentiment. When it comes down to it, that won't be nearly enough.

Complaining about the incumbent in August doesn't translate to voting for the challenger in November, a lesson that has been repeated over and over and over in American history.

Oh well, we'll see come November.

[dc-zoo]

Kerry just had a bad week or two with the swiftvet's ad and his own mouth working against him. Most of these state polls are nearly a week, up to two weeks old. The latest Gallup Poll shows movement in Bush's favor. There are brighter days ahead IMO.

[basil]

I didn't read all those charts, but I'm sure that they say: BUSH BY A LANDSLIDE!