Posted on 08/18/2004 3:44:26 PM PDT by RedStateWarrior
I'm a hard numbers kind of guy. I follow the state polls every evening after I get home from work, and there's a disturbing trend developing right now: most projections give Kerry a pretty good position in the electoral college.
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Here are a few sites of electoral projections:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
http://www.federalreview.com/
http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
http://www.race2004.net/
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There are a handful of states that I'm really concerned about. Bush should NOT be worrying about these states!!! Bush should be waltzing through these and focusing on Ohio and Florida!
Nevada: Rasmussen's latest poll gives Bush a 1% lead. What's less-often reported is how many California liberals are relocating to Nevada to work and even sometimes vote there.
Colorado: Survey USA has both candidates tied at 47%. Could this be affected by reverse coattails?
Missouri: I'd always thought that MO was getting more conservative, but the latest Zogby has Bush down by 1%. I know, I know.. Zogby (yuck!), but I've seen other polls with this race close.
Tennesse: Again, how? Bush leads 48-46 in the latest Survey USA poll. That Frenchie is doing better than the Gorebot did in 2000!
Virginia: Bush holds a 3% lead here. I have faith in this state. My brother lives there outside of DC, and he says "no way" to it going Kerry. They're trying to appeal to vets, but with no good results. Still, 3% is a bit close for my comfort.
North Carolina: Sure, the Breck Girl is on the ticket, but this state was a landslide for Bush in 2000. Now it's statistically tied.
Then there are the swing states..
Ohio: I really began to worry when I saw today's Gallup numbers. Kerry has a 10% lead among registered voters, and 2% among likelies. Bush can't afford to lose this one.
Florida: the latest 3 polls have Bush trailing by an average of 6%. That's scary. I can't see us winning without Florida, unless we pull a hat trick and take Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin in return.
New Hampshire: Yeah, don't laugh.. 4EVs. But the election might be that close, and it looks like Kerry has a consistent 4 or 5% lead here.
What also bothers me is that undecideds almost always break by about 60 to 70% with the challenger. I see Bush on TV all the time, making his case (he's gotten quite good at it lately), but those damn TV goons always seem to twist things around on him. {And you know that the media are gonna have a field day with the 1000th GI death. Sickos.} I know that our convention is coming soon, and that we should get some bounce from it, but am I being a worrywart?
We all know that the map most frequently published has the colors backwards. The 'Rats rightly should be colored red, NOT blue.
This needs to be changed this election.
Moby?
I won't panic in any event. The world doesn't end if Bush loses. I have never in my life seriously asked myself such an absurd question as 'Is it time to panic yet?'
Grow up and get with the program a bit.
In any event, as I see it, Bush can conceivably win as many as 35 states or so *(and win), or as few as 25 states or so (and lose). Any anything in between.
Keep in mind that the election is about 10-11 weeks away, a lot can and will likely happen. The RNC. Peace protester unrest at the RNC. A couple of debates. A terrorist strike with a huge body count. And a whole lot of campaigning.
I ran the numbers and have Bush most likely winning 300-321 EVs. That could be very wrong if he loses some close races. "If." Don't panic on "ifs."
Don't panic, especially in the face of certain adversity. Even if you lose, it really ticks the other side off.
It's not easy to calm down, especially when all I have on all day is Fox News. I will be a dish rag come election night, but I have faith.
It's just better on all of us if the negative stuff about our President isn't posted much.
And for those fans of The Zot.. where can I get some of those cool kitten-with-a-gun pics? I want some wallpaper.. hehe..
Hey, just put your cursor over the picture, right click and save to your hard drive. Then make it your wall paper! Easy. :)
"Is it time to panic yet?"
Only if you're allergic to ozone.
Heed the words of LS
Yes, it's time to panic---if your boy is John Kerry.
In two words: Absolutely NOT!
Kudos to the strategists in the Bush campaign....they've held Kerry in limbo since the convention.
I probably made it to another do-not-call-list...
Nice about page by the way
From a "neighbor" in a battleground state just to your SE.
Nose to the grindstone, trooper. The time to panic is AFTER Kerry is elected, if that happens. Right now, you need to shut up and get back to work doing what you can to ensure that doesn't happen.
That should have been SW...
Thanks! Indiana?
My aunt and I had a good conversation about phone polls. I have NEVER been polled, nor have my parents or siblings (all registered republicans). However, my aunt (who is a democrat) claims to be called weekly or every-other-week for her opinion. Same for her adult (democrat) children.
"John has a long....mustache"
Zzzzzzzzzz..... Keep trying, Jeanine.
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