Posted on 08/18/2004 1:30:42 PM PDT by crv16
In Pennsylvania, a new Quinnipiac Poll reports that John Kerry leads President Bush 47%-42% with 4% going to Ralph Nader. Why am I not concerned? As other posters have argued, polling data in some states notoriously skews Democratic. In Pennsylvania, SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac, and the Keystone Poll reported that Ed Rendell would defeat then State Attorney General Mike Fisher by 19 to 20 percentage points. It was around 8 points on election day. Moreover the Quinnipiac Poll tests registered voters. While Kerry probably has a slim margin, it's even closer than the five points reported. My expectation is that the President will pull ahead in PA after his convention.
In Nevada, two new polls are out. One by Rasmussen showing PresidentBush leading by a point. The other by SurveyUSA which shows President Bush leading 49% to 46%. (Their last poll, if I recall, had Kerry leading.) If President Bush leads in Nevada, then he cannot be tied in Colorado. It is counterintuitive. In any event, President Bush would still be wise to make a campaign swing though Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada on the way to his convention.
In Georgia and Oklahoma, President Bush enjoys big leads. In Georgia, he is ahead by 14. In Oklahoma, he leads by 20 points. My guess is that Congressman Carson is asking himself why he ever ran for the Senate. Kerry has a lead of six points in Michigan and a lead of one point in Wisconsin. Wisconsin has actually seen an improvement for the President since the last poll. You can find these polls at Quinnipiac, Strategic Vision, and SurveyUSA.
Meanwhile Gallup has an interesting report. Since early June, President Bush has gone from a 4 point lead in the Red States to a 19 point lead. His trajectory in these states has consistently been upwards. (The Red States are those which President Bush carried by more than 5 percentage points.) In the blue states, which the President lost by more than 5 percentage points, he trails by 16 points. However that is an improvement from the 20 point gap in June and the 23 point gap in late July. (There are not too many so-called Blue States with large populations. While California, New York, Maryland, and Massachusettsare included, the list also includes Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Deleware, and Hawaii.)
In the critical battleground states, where the margin was five points or less, President Bush has went from -5 gap to a -2 gap. In early July he was trailing by ten. Should all go well, he will pull ahead in these states after his convention. The bottom line is that things are looking up for the President. His base is behind him, energized, and ready to support him. He has a solid wall of electoral support in the shape of a giant L running from the Southeast to the Northwest. Now the President must use the media coverage in the next two weeks to lay out a vision appealing to swing voters and independents. I think he can do it. In fact, I know he can do it.
We are pretty close in our estimates. I haven't worked out the states as you apparently have, but I've been saying 330 EVs for months.
Cold beer in one hand, a cute UT co-ed under my arm, and another defeated Dem candidacy...whatta way to enjoy an evening!
There is a nice online electoral college calculator at:
http://www.grayraven.com/ec/
I just did it again, using both my instincts and other factors, coming up with 300 or 321 EVs for Bush, depending if he wins or loses Penn.
As of now, I am giving the entire West coast and Hawaii to Kerry, as well as most of the northeast and traditionally democratic east coast states, as well as IL, Michigan, and Minnesota. Some odd stuff can happen in NJ, especially if the McGreevey disgust can help the GOP carry the state, which is possible if they have a special election and bring a 'franchise' GOP governor candidate - I don't think it will happen though so I have it firmly as Kerry country.
In any case, I can't see Bush winning any of these Kerry states in any circumstance - the left coast (well, Maybe OR), NY, Mass, CT, Maine, Vermont, RI, Deleware, Maryland, DC, IL, Minn, and Michigan. No way.
That pretty much leaves us with 321 EVs if Penn goes our way, 300 if it doesn't (though I think it ultimately will), and I also have OH and Wisconsin going our way, which I feel they will, but I'm not sure 100%. I am 95% sure we will win at least one of those two states, though.
Freepers expecting many more than 300-325 EVs are living in fantasyland. It just isn't there.
People in MN are pretty optimistic. It was very close in 2000.
I'll take it, but I don't see it happening.
Three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Sam Clemens aka Mark Twain
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