Posted on 08/18/2004 1:30:42 PM PDT by crv16
We are pretty close in our estimates. I haven't worked out the states as you apparently have, but I've been saying 330 EVs for months.
Cold beer in one hand, a cute UT co-ed under my arm, and another defeated Dem candidacy...whatta way to enjoy an evening!
There is a nice online electoral college calculator at:
http://www.grayraven.com/ec/
I just did it again, using both my instincts and other factors, coming up with 300 or 321 EVs for Bush, depending if he wins or loses Penn.
As of now, I am giving the entire West coast and Hawaii to Kerry, as well as most of the northeast and traditionally democratic east coast states, as well as IL, Michigan, and Minnesota. Some odd stuff can happen in NJ, especially if the McGreevey disgust can help the GOP carry the state, which is possible if they have a special election and bring a 'franchise' GOP governor candidate - I don't think it will happen though so I have it firmly as Kerry country.
In any case, I can't see Bush winning any of these Kerry states in any circumstance - the left coast (well, Maybe OR), NY, Mass, CT, Maine, Vermont, RI, Deleware, Maryland, DC, IL, Minn, and Michigan. No way.
That pretty much leaves us with 321 EVs if Penn goes our way, 300 if it doesn't (though I think it ultimately will), and I also have OH and Wisconsin going our way, which I feel they will, but I'm not sure 100%. I am 95% sure we will win at least one of those two states, though.
Freepers expecting many more than 300-325 EVs are living in fantasyland. It just isn't there.
People in MN are pretty optimistic. It was very close in 2000.
I'll take it, but I don't see it happening.
Three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Sam Clemens aka Mark Twain
Are you related to John Titor?
If you don't know who he is, google search for him and civil war.
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