2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, August 16, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[BlackRazor]

so explain how EVERY pollster was off---in the SAME DIRECTION (i.e., in the Democrat's favor) in 1996;

Undecideds broke heavily for Dole. The average of the final nine pre-election polls had Clinton up 50-38. The actual result was 49-41. So they were one point high for Clinton and three points low for Dole.

how every one missed the GENERAL election results of 2002

How do you figure that? NCPP reported "very good" performance for most polling organizations in 2002:

http://www.ncpp.org/2002SenGovPoll/2002ElectionPolls.html

how most of them were substantially off in the presidential election of 2000.

I don't buy that one. 2000 was one of the best years ever for the pollsters, according to NCPP:

www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm

[comebacknewt]

W needs a bigger bump coming out of his convention than JFnK got from his. I think there is a good shot that he will get it. If he does, he will win a decisive electoral victory.

However, if there is no bump or only a very small bump, I will be very, verry worried.

[ShandaLear]

But the conventions are covered by cable news and of course CSpan. With network news viewership falling and cable news rising, people will get to see the convention in it's entirity.

[Condor51]

The GWB reelection team waited way too long to get in the game

• It sure did! Starting last August when the Yellow Cake baloney came out, the WH response was at first late, then tepid, then confused and finally WRONG. They admitted Dubya made a mistake when in fact he did not.

  But the RATS, like sharks, smelled the blood in the water and just went on from there. IIRC not one of drunk Kennedy's outlandish lies was countered.

- The 527 issue has killed us -

• I don't know if the 527's per se hurt Dubya, but the total lack of response in General to the outright lies and to the ad hominem attacks was poor at best. Scott McClellan is a TERRIRBLE spokesman and a rotten press secretary. BRING BACK ARI! Or at least someone who is NOT afraid of the DC press corp.

[comebacknewt]

But the RATS, like sharks, smelled the blood in the water and just went on from there. IIRC not one of drunk Kennedy's outlandish lies was countered.

In some ways GWB's campaign has been sadly reminiscent of GHWB's failed campaign. It certainly hasn't been that bad, but there have been accusations that have cried out for responses that have been met with silence -- not the best way to win an election.

[RogerWilko]

EVERY poll had Arnold with, at most, 28-29% of the vote, and he got over 50%.

Actually, Arnold only got 48.6%, BUT the polls were still WAY OFF! Like 15+ points!

[Redmen4ever]

When comparing the Iowa Electronics Market to the Tradesports market, bear in mind that the Iowa Market is for who will win a plurality of the popular vote, whereas the Tradesports market is for who will be elected (either by receiving 270 or more EVs, or via the Congress in the event of a tie). Thus, Kerry might be (slightly) favored in the Iowa Market, even though Bush is (slightly) favored in the Tradesports market.

[Alberta's Child]

Florida ain't a toss-up.

Remember how close the polls were in 2002, when it was projected that McBride and Jeb Bush were in a nail-biter that would go down to the wire? That election wasn't even close.

If George W. Bush can't win in a state that has one of the strongest economies in the U.S. (for obvious reasons, BTW), then he never should have been elected in the first place.

[Momto2]

Hi

- you wrote "My next little task is to start examining the 2000 polls and finding out how far off they were. I know the 1996 polls were all, EVERY ONE, off, some by as much as 8% points, and EVERY ONE, without exception, was off in Clinton's direction."

When you do this will you ping me? We are doing a homeschool project on polls and this would be wonderful for my kids to read.

Thanks in advance!

[DM1]

"GWB needs to start gaining a small but significant lead and soon -"
hopefully our convention will give Bush a much better bounce than Kerrys
with that hopefully - i pray that Bush will win
is it me or is anyone else having chest pains with this election?

[nwrep]

With network news viewership falling and cable news rising, people will get to see the convention in it's entirity.

Combined network viewership is still 10 times combined cable viewership on most nights. During the convention, it will still be around 5 or 6 times as much.

[hunter112]

I noticed that you have Washington in the Kerry column, and while that is indeed fairly sound conventional wisdom, I have to tell you about something remarkable I saw yesterday.

I haven't been to Seattle in quite a number of months, I live out in the timber country of SW WA, and while it's not too unusual to see few bumper stickers here (we know that national, and even state politicians ignore us once they get into office), but I got to Seattle yesterday. I was on a tour bus, to go to the Mariners-Yankees game, so I had plenty of time to look out the window at cars. I swear, I didn't see ONE political bumper sticker!

We've got a hot race in the Rat primary for governor, and Osama Mamma Murray is running again (she's from a neighborhood just north of Seattle), and even then, there were no bumper stickers on cars on the freeway! Yes, I know, they do mess up bumpers, but then folks put them inside the back window. I sure saw a lot of Kucinich stickers some six or seven months ago.

I'm taking this as a sign that Rat voters, in the Rattiest part of the state of WA, are NOT turned on by their candidates. Yes, most Seattlites who stumble to to polls will probably vote for Kerry and the other Rats on the ticket below him, but if there's something else compelling to do that day, they might not bother to vote at all.

In my opinion, the lack of liberal Seattle enthusiasm for their socialist friends, within three months of an election, is a good sign.

[oblomov]

Nope, IEM still favors Bush, both in the winner-take-all and voteshare markets. But IEM swung to Kerry late last week. It was obviously being manipulated through "walking up the bid" on the DEM contract. I trade on IEM, and let's just say that manipulation is very easy to detect and undo.

The good thing about a market as a barometer of public choice is that manipulation can only work temporarily.

[SuzanneC]

This is an interesting take on things. #23

[POA2]

The Indy's we are looking to pull over to GWB will not see much of the convention (just like most did not watch Kerry!) -

Those who watch on Cable are already the partisan types - and actively looking to watch politics -

The national media are trying to filter all information that goes out to the INDY vote -

[hotshu]

Do any of you have a link to a site that provides the voter turnout percentages or actual voter registration numbers by state for 2000 and 2002?

[Coop]

is it me or is anyone else having chest pains with this election?

I can't say that I see too much to be worried about, honestly.

[hotshu]

The FEC has the info I'm searching for, but only through the '98 congressional elections.

[LS]

1) NCPP is THE mouthpiece for polling organizations. So consider that when looking at their "conclusions." But here is the reality, according to their stats:

Zogby: off on Bush by 2%

CBS: off on Bush by 4%

Harris phone: off on Bush by 1%

Real Clear Politics: off on Bush by 2%

NBC: off on Bush by 1%

Harris interactive: off on Bush by 1%

Gallup, ABC, and IBD were right on Bush. Battleground and Pew were high on Bush (2% and 1%). If you exclude the "alternative method" poll (Rasmussen)

It is not true, as the site says, that "7 [of the polls] overstated Bush," even including the "alternative" Rasmussen poll. Excluding Rasmussen and Harris, 5 overstated Bush, but 5 also overstated Gore. They get their "average" by the fact that NONE OF THEM had the final right.

Equally interesting, they cover themselves in 2002 by lumping ALL senate polls together, when in fact the pollsters were badly off (as their own site implies) on the key races of CO, MN, GA, and NH.

[Squantos]

One sunny day in 2005, an old man approached the White House from
across Pennsylvania Avenue, where he'd been sitting on a park bench.
He spoke to the Marine standing guard and said, "I would like to go in
and meet with President Kerry."

The Marine replied, "Sir, Mr. Kerry is not President and doesn't reside
here." The old man said, "Okay," and walked away.

The following day, the same man approached the White House and said to
the same Marine, "I would like to go in and meet with President Kerry."

The Marine again told the man, "Sir, as I said yesterday, Mr. Kerry is
not President and doesn't reside here." The man thanked him and again
walked away.

The third day, the same man approached the White House and spoke to the
very same Marine, saying "I would like to go in and meet with President
Kerry." The Marine, understandably agitated at this point, looked at
the man and said, "Sir, this is the third day in a row you have
been here asking to speak to Mr. Kerry. I've told you already that Mr.
Kerry is not the President and doesn't reside here. Don't you understand?"

The old man answered, "Oh, I understand. I just love hearing it."

The Marine snapped to attention, saluted, and said, "See you tomorrow,
sir."