Posted on 08/15/2004 1:43:18 PM PDT by Willie Green
For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.
HARRISBURG - More Pennsylvania voters believe U.S. Sen. John Kerry has a better plan than President Bush to strengthen the nation's economy, which ranks as voters' No. 1 issue, according to a new statewide poll.
The Massachusetts Democrat holds an 11-point lead over Bush on the economy, 51 to 40 percent.
Kerry's lead is bigger regarding job creation and lowering the cost of health care, the poll reveals.
Bush holds a slight edge on having the better plan to respond to the threat of terror, 48 to 44 percent. The candidates are nearly even on who has the best plan to deal with Iraq, with Kerry leading 46 to 45 percent.
Conducted by SurveyUSA for WNEP-TV 16, the poll surveyed 593 registered voters across the state on Aug. 6. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.
The poll results could indicate that Pennsylvania isn't as much of a swing state as many political watchers would believe, says Len Champney, chairman of the University of Scranton political science department.
"The national pundits have been referring to Pennsylvania as a toss-up state, and I'm not sure that it is. I think Pennsylvania looks very good for John Kerry."
Kerry campaign spokesman Mark Nevins said: "I think that this is a validation of the positive approach we've taken on the issues, about creating jobs, about the economy and about ending outsourcing. I think these results are a rejection of the Bush campaign's strategy of negativity and attack, rather than having their own agenda."
However, Bush campaign spokesman Kevin Madden said: "What this shows is that Americans don't know a whole lot about the record of John Kerry. Kerry has a senate record of higher taxes and more regulation. ... That's clearly something that is not going to resonate with voters.
"There are a lot of polls out there that show people don't know John Kerry's record. They don't know because he doesn't talk about it. And he doesn't talk about it because it's a dismal record."
Both campaigns acknowledge the economy is a top issue for Pennsylvania voters.
The poll shows 71 percent of voters believe the economy is very important and 23 percent believe it's somewhat important.
The threat of terror, health-care costs and handling of Iraq were reported as very important issues by 60 percent of voters; 58 percent of voters called job creation very important.
"Unless there is some dramatically good news on the economy, Bush is going to be the underdog," said Robert J. Bresler, professor emeritus of public policy at Penn State Harrisburg. "Or, he needs some event on Iraq or the war on terrorism that catapults that issue over the economy."
The Bush campaign has focused much of its advertising blitz in Pennsylvania on the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism, and Kerry has hammered more on economic issues. Both campaigns say they'll continue to press those issues leading up to the Nov. 2 election.
Although voters appear to be split on which candidate has the best plans for terrorism and Iraq, Nevins said that's a better showing for Kerry than would be expected for a challenger during wartime.
"I think these numbers indicate a lot of public discomfort and disapproval of George Bush's war on terror and war in Iraq. For a challenger to be basically tied with an incumbent president on these issues is almost unheard of."
W is behind in PA...and that;s a FACT.
I am going to go back to my experience in 2000 where I watched every poll night and day. Polls mean diddly until after the Pubbie convention.
KQQL you can pontificate yourself as some poll guru all you want, but this a 9 day old poll and the situation is fluid.
I don't partake in your gloom and doom.
SURVEYUSA IS NOT A BOGUS POLLSTER.
MAson DIXON IS NOT A BOGUS POLLSTER EITHER.
NOR IS GALLUP.
Which one Willie or KQQL?
WHAT EVER.
-----
I have a good record in calling races.............MY RECORD speaks for itself.
You don't pay attention , that's why you say that.
I NEVER EVER HAVE SAID THE ELECTION IS OVER NOR KERRY WILL WIN FOR SURE.
"SURVEYUSA IS NOT NOT A BOGUS POLLSTER."
A ONE DAY quickie poll of REGISTERED VOTERS with a MOE of 4.1 is a BOGUS poll -- polling affiliation does NOT trump (flawed) polling methodology!
That's fine, whatever you want to think.
Interesting that this newspaper is trumping up a 9 day old poll, especially after the favorable results of the latest Gallup.
Sorry but W is behind in PA.
I'd say we have almost no chance in PA.
Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1011 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (August 12-14, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.
Presidential Candidates %
Aug12-14
Democrat -John Kerry
47
Republican-George W. Bush
43
Independent-Ralph Nader
2
Libertarian-Michael Badnarik
1
Constitution-Michael Peroutka
.2
Green-David Cobb
.2
Other
.8
Undecided 7
The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).
Presidential Ticket %
Aug12-14
July 27-29
July 6-7
Kerry-Edwards
50
48
48
Bush-Cheney
43
43
46
Undecided
6
8
5
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=851
Exactly.
Survey USA is in business and they will conduct the poll the way the customer(newspaper) wants it conducted.
In this case, a quickie one day poll.
LOL.....
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Gov. James E. McGreevey's approval rating has not suffered from his disclosure that he had an affair with another man and will resign in November, according to a Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll released Sunday.
Among 400 adults polled by telephone after McGreevey's announcement, the governor's approval rating was 45 percent, or 2 points higher than it was in a similar poll conducted two weeks earlier.
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Sapranos must be proud of NJ voters...lol
Gore won it in 2000, didn't he? If so, well, it shouldn't be too much of a surprise.
Unfortunately, Americans have short memories, even of Sept. 11.
If it takes every effort in a Repub mind like mine to just remember what happened that horrible day, just how much harder it must be for apolitical folks to remember that black day.
The director of surveusa is no LEFTy liberal, so can't say they are bias or can be bought.
The poll by Survey USA that contained the President question was conducted over three days and of LIKELY VOTERS.
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040803pressen.pdf
The poll that is the subject of the thread is flawed, but there is NO question about who you'd vote for for President.
The director of surveusa is no LEFTy liberal, so you can't say they are bias or can be bought.
One more time, get it through your
head: DrDeb said the methodology
of this one POLL, NOT POLLSTER,
is flawed in her informed opinion.
So stop screaming that she said
the POLLSTER is bogus. She didn't.
And if you avg. in the #s from any
poll that has K. over W by 11 pts.
in PA, then all you've got is more
garbage in - garbage out.
Just an observation, interesting that newbies are showing up spreading doom and gloom.
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