New Zogby Poll: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43%

Zogby ^ | 8/15/04

[areafiftyone]

Released: August 15, 2004

Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1011 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (August 12-14, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.

Presidential Candidates %	Aug12-14
Democrat -John Kerry	47
Republican-George W. Bush	43
Independent-Ralph Nader	2
Libertarian-Michael Badnarik	1
Constitution-Michael Peroutka	.2
Green-David Cobb	.2
Other	.8
Undecided	7

The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).

Presidential Ticket %	Aug12-14	July 27-29	July 6-7
Kerry-Edwards	50	48	48
Bush-Cheney	43	43	46
Undecided	6	8	5

President Bush’s overall job performance rating moved up three points to 47%, with more than half of respondents continuing to express their disapproval.

George W. Bush	8/12-14	7/27-29	7/6-7	6/2-5	5/10-13
Approve	47	44	49	46	42
Disapprove	52	56	51	54	58
Undecided	1	0	0	0	0

The majority of respondents say that the country is headed on the wrong track (51%), while 42% feel the US is on the right track.

US Direction	8/12-14	7/27-29	7/6-7	6/2-5	5/ 10-13
Wrong	51	50	48	50	54
Right	42	41	47	44	40
Undecided	7	9	5	6	6

When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority (53%) still says that it is "time for someone new."

George W. Bush	8/12-14	7/27-29	7/6-7	6/2-5	5/10-13
Re-Elect	43	42	43	43	42
Someone New	53	51	53	53	53
Undecided	4	7	4	5	6

As part of the Zogby-O’Leary Report Red and Blue States Monitor, in the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 54% of support, as compared to Bush 37%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 47%, while receives 41% support.

Presidential Ticket %	Blues States	Red States
Kerry	54	41
Bush	37	47
Undecided	6	6

Nearly one in three (31%) continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (19%); the war in Iraq (14%); health care (8%); and education (4%). * This month the war in Iraq stays as the fourth important issue

Pollster John Zogby: “Kerry leads in the Blue States by 17 (54%-37%) while Bush leads in the Red States by 6 (47%-41%). Good news for the President: he is back to attracting 86% of Republicans, while Kerry gets 79% of the Democrats. However, Kerry leads 49% to 31% among Independents.

“Among the majority who say the country is headed on the wrong track, Kerry leads 84% to 5%, while Bush has the right direction voters 86% to 8%. In 1996, Bill Clinton led Bob Dole over both groups.

“Kerry leads among all age groups except 30-49 year olds, where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Catholics give Kerry a 50%-37% edge – numbers more similar to Clinton’s leads in 1992 and 1996 than Al Gore’s 51% to 46% margin in 2000. Protestants are for Bush (57% to 33%), especially on the strength of the President’s 68% to 20% margin among Born Again Protestants.

“Voters with active passports prefer Kerry 58% to 35%, while those without a passport are for Bush 48% to 39%. Union voters give Kerry a 22 point advantage – 55% to 33%.

“The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class – Kerry 45% to Bush’s 44%. Bush won this group by double digits in 2000. Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.

“Bush leads among men 46% to 43%, while Kerry leads among women 50% to 39%. Bush also leads among Northern Europeans 47% to 44% and Southern Europeans 52% to 47%. Kerry is ahead among Eastern Europeans 63% to 29%.

“Big city voters favor Kerry 58% to 36%, as do Suburban voters 49% to 41%, while small city voters are with Bush 52% to 38%. Bush leads Kerry among rural voters 42% to 39%.”

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1011 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday, August 12 through Saturday, August 14. The margin of error is +/3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[ Click Here For Methodology ]

[Nataku X]

'Fess up. You're just pulling our legs, right?

[Palladin]

Right you are Dr.Deb. As has been said so often here, the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.

[SC Swamp Fox]

"Likely Voters" is a subset of "Registared Voters" and in polling standards is usually considered to be a higher standard.

Each polling agency has it's own methods of determining which registared voters they talk to are likely to vote.

Both LV and RV are a higher standard than "Adults".

[NDJeep]

I'm serious - those were some of the questions. I wrote Zogby and told them if they were going to continue polling in this fashion to remove me from their list

[Kay]

You have a good memory. I couldn't remember all those questions.

[hflynn]

I understand that LV's are a subset of RV's, however when you see a poll stating the sample is comprised of RV's it indicates the polling organization is using purchased lists of RV's to contact the saaple group. In other words their is no question the LVs are RVs but when I see LV's I'm not sure they are RV's and without a purchased list the pollster cannot be 100% certain.

[JFC]

I say it is too close for comfort. We need to get PRO-ACTIVE and not sit idle. I can assure you the left are out in full force and very energized with their HATE for Bush.

[Zack Nguyen]

The questions they ask are very slanted.

Really? Could you go into more detail here. I'd like to know more about how Zogby conducts polls.

[Zack Nguyen]

It's better than most polls. If we treat each group as 1/3rd of the electorate, then the 18-point Kerry lead among independents would give Kerry a 6-point lead.

Ah, but here's the difference in American politics circa 2004 - we are no longer evenly split between Dems, Reps and Indies.

The total number of swing voters is 8% - 10%. It has shrunk continually over the last decade or so. There are a multitude of cultural (and religious) reasons why this is the case, but the fact is the electorate is more partisan than it has been since the post-Civil War period.

That's why this election is so close, and why Kerry received no post-convention bounce, and why Bush probably won't either. At least 90% of voters (probably more) are committed already, and nothing will change their minds.

[Zack Nguyen]

Are we really expected to believe that fully a third of people who "invested" now don't ("almost half" to 31% would be a third fewer "investors")?

I agree. That makes no sense at all. Would it not devastate the market to have that many people pull their money out? Wouldn't we have seen it?

[BSunday]

I hope they keep on polling Kerry ahead. It will make the dems apathetic and stay away from the polls. After all, it's not that they like Kerry, but that they hate Bush. And who wants to stop partying long enough to go vote for a guy who is ahead in the polls ?

[hflynn]

The more I watch Kerry, the less I worry about the election.

Zogby polls use to be reliable but understand the Zogby's are Arabs 1st and John Zogby polls reflect a Muslime bias since 9/11. John's bother Jim is the President of the Arab American Institute, the main Arab political lobby in the U.S.

[myself6]

These polls showing kerry in the lead are cover.


Ive been reading posts about dem 527's putting MASSIVE funds into "voter registration" drives otherwise known as voter roll padding.

They are going to use these additional names and address's to commit voter fraud on an EPIC scale.

Friday I was sitting in the parking lot of miller stadium tailgating before the brewers game. Along come these lefty looking college age girls registering people to vote. They stopped at the people beside us and asked if they wanted to register, some did some didnt. Before the voter babes moved on they asked this kid how old he was, the answer was 17. They then asked him to register to vote. His family got a good chuckle out of it as he registered.

That boy will not go vote and the voter babes dont really care, it was just another name and address to use as another kerry vote.

Im not kidding, this is going to get bad. Unless we as citizens do something about this they WILL get away with it.

I didnt have any video equipment with me but Im making sure I keep it in my car from now on. Please do the same and record everything you see that might be dem voter fraud in action. Im sure there are some that might have the time and energy to actively follow leftist scum around. Im not sure if the video is admissible in court but it will make a great tool for enlisting people to the cause of rebellion. Who knows, even a little vigilante payback for the a--holes who work to steal our country.