New Zogby Poll: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43%

Zogby ^ | 8/15/04

[areafiftyone]

Released: August 15, 2004

Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43% In Multi-Candidate Race; Voters With Passports Give Kerry 58%-35% Edge; Candidates in Dead Heat Among Investors; New Zogby America Poll Reveals

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1011 likely voters was conducted Thursday through Saturday (August 12-14, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.

Presidential Candidates %	Aug12-14
Democrat -John Kerry	47
Republican-George W. Bush	43
Independent-Ralph Nader	2
Libertarian-Michael Badnarik	1
Constitution-Michael Peroutka	.2
Green-David Cobb	.2
Other	.8
Undecided	7

The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).

Presidential Ticket %	Aug12-14	July 27-29	July 6-7
Kerry-Edwards	50	48	48
Bush-Cheney	43	43	46
Undecided	6	8	5

President Bush’s overall job performance rating moved up three points to 47%, with more than half of respondents continuing to express their disapproval.

George W. Bush	8/12-14	7/27-29	7/6-7	6/2-5	5/10-13
Approve	47	44	49	46	42
Disapprove	52	56	51	54	58
Undecided	1	0	0	0	0

The majority of respondents say that the country is headed on the wrong track (51%), while 42% feel the US is on the right track.

US Direction	8/12-14	7/27-29	7/6-7	6/2-5	5/ 10-13
Wrong	51	50	48	50	54
Right	42	41	47	44	40
Undecided	7	9	5	6	6

When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters responded positively, while the majority (53%) still says that it is "time for someone new."

George W. Bush	8/12-14	7/27-29	7/6-7	6/2-5	5/10-13
Re-Elect	43	42	43	43	42
Someone New	53	51	53	53	53
Undecided	4	7	4	5	6

As part of the Zogby-O’Leary Report Red and Blue States Monitor, in the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 54% of support, as compared to Bush 37%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 47%, while receives 41% support.

Presidential Ticket %	Blues States	Red States
Kerry	54	41
Bush	37	47
Undecided	6	6

Nearly one in three (31%) continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on terrorism (19%); the war in Iraq (14%); health care (8%); and education (4%). * This month the war in Iraq stays as the fourth important issue

Pollster John Zogby: “Kerry leads in the Blue States by 17 (54%-37%) while Bush leads in the Red States by 6 (47%-41%). Good news for the President: he is back to attracting 86% of Republicans, while Kerry gets 79% of the Democrats. However, Kerry leads 49% to 31% among Independents.

“Among the majority who say the country is headed on the wrong track, Kerry leads 84% to 5%, while Bush has the right direction voters 86% to 8%. In 1996, Bill Clinton led Bob Dole over both groups.

“Kerry leads among all age groups except 30-49 year olds, where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Catholics give Kerry a 50%-37% edge – numbers more similar to Clinton’s leads in 1992 and 1996 than Al Gore’s 51% to 46% margin in 2000. Protestants are for Bush (57% to 33%), especially on the strength of the President’s 68% to 20% margin among Born Again Protestants.

“Voters with active passports prefer Kerry 58% to 35%, while those without a passport are for Bush 48% to 39%. Union voters give Kerry a 22 point advantage – 55% to 33%.

“The two candidates are in a dead heat among self-identified members of the investor class – Kerry 45% to Bush’s 44%. Bush won this group by double digits in 2000. Not only has this group shrunk from almost half of all voters to only 31%, but Bush is now tied among a group he will need for victory.

“Bush leads among men 46% to 43%, while Kerry leads among women 50% to 39%. Bush also leads among Northern Europeans 47% to 44% and Southern Europeans 52% to 47%. Kerry is ahead among Eastern Europeans 63% to 29%.

“Big city voters favor Kerry 58% to 36%, as do Suburban voters 49% to 41%, while small city voters are with Bush 52% to 38%. Bush leads Kerry among rural voters 42% to 39%.”

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1011 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday, August 12 through Saturday, August 14. The margin of error is +/3.1 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[ Click Here For Methodology ]

[afraidfortherepublic]

I was part of the Zogby poll and I guess they got tired of me saying that there was no way that I was going to change my vote from GW Bush. They dropped me this time.

The questions they ask are very slanted.

[Palladin]

Zogby needs to get a real job.

[TheExploited]

A little sauce applied to diminish the impact of the true Gallup poll...

[areafiftyone]

Thats what I was thinking. I notice right after a poll comes out that is in favor of Bush Zogby has one favoring Kerry. Amazing!

[COEXERJ145]

Zogsauce claimed three months ago that Kerry would win. Now he has to keep spiting out these polls if he wants to maintain any credibility.

[hflynn]

I see Zogby is calling on Saturday and is talking to likely voters as opposed to registered voters. Oh well, whatever you have to do to come up with Kerry ahead.

[areafiftyone]

Thats what I was thinking. I notice right after a poll comes out that is in favor of Bush Zogby has one favoring Kerry. Amazing!

[kingattax]

i wouldnt believe Zogby if he had a poll saying 90% say

the sky is blue..

He is done as an objective pollster. NO credibility.

[COEXERJ145]

I'm also curious as to the breakdown of Dem, Rep, Other in this poll. I didn't see it listed here or on Zogsauce's website.

[BlackRain]

Zogby polls are no longer reliable since he inserted himself into the story rather than reporting it.

Does he truly believe that his polls will taken as credible once he exposes his political bias on talks shows, forums, and in newspapers?

[Nick Danger]

Poll Puts Mondale Even With Reagan

By Norman D. Atkins Washington Post Staff Writer. The Washington Post (1974-Current file). Washington, D.C.: Jul 23, 1984. pg. A3, 1 pgs

Democratic presidential nominee Walter F. Mondale, on a post-convention fishing vacation in Gunflint Lake, Minn., did not catch any fish but hauled in some good news yesterday from a poll that showed him pulling even with President Reagan.

Wait! There's more!

New York Times, 7/26/88:

In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll. This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

[areafiftyone]

I guess Zogby has to keep the DUers happy because of all that whining over the Gallop Poll.

[SandRat]

Once the results are in may Zogby deserve a ZZZZZZZOT! and a shredding from the Viking Kitties!

[BluH2o]

Horse-pucky, pure horse-pucky ... Zogby, take your biased polling and stick it. By the way Zogby does the term "landslide" invoke fear? Well, get used to it come November when Bush kicks Kerry's butt every way but loose in the general election. Explain your polls then AH.

[austingirl]

This is only a measure of the leftists hatred of Bush - no one is for Kerry it seems - and BTW, why on earth would they be? He is a zero.

[Right_in_Virginia]

New Zogby Poll: Kerry Favored Over Bush 47%-43%

Nice try, Zobgy.

[Soul Seeker]

Well, Zogby is the one that said this was Kerry's race to lose. He is the one that said Kerry was strong in the South. He is the one that said 'his' people didn't like G.W. but were split in support of Kerry.

Even if his polling was shown to be conducted honorably, he has biased his results by his editorial comments. The results cannot be trusted due to his held bias.

[austingirl]

yes, Kerry is strong in the South, South Iran, South Saudi Arabia, South Yemen, and so on.

[ThreePuttinDude]

Zogby sux sewer spew