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Bush Landslide (in Theory)! Questions for Ray C. Fair
The New York Times ^
| August 15, 2004
| Deborah Solomon
Posted on 08/14/2004 4:15:09 PM PDT by quidnunc
click here to read article
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1
posted on
08/14/2004 4:15:09 PM PDT
by
quidnunc
To: quidnunc
Albert Wang has, in the face of polls predicting otherwise, boldly stated that November will be a 45 state Bush blowout.
To: quidnunc
Theres no way I'm signing up on the NYtimes web page. Can somebody please give a breif summary of the rest of this interview?
3
posted on
08/14/2004 4:18:39 PM PDT
by
Betaille
("Show them no mercy, for none shall be shown to you")
To: quidnunc
4
posted on
08/14/2004 4:19:21 PM PDT
by
Uncle Hal
To: AlbertWang
It's only bold if it turns out he is right.
To: quidnunc
Bush Landslide Period!
The only chance of another outcome would be complacency of Bush supporters to the point of not going to the polls.
6
posted on
08/14/2004 4:20:07 PM PDT
by
EGPWS
To: AlbertWang
Cripplecreek thinks Albert Wang may be onto something.
7
posted on
08/14/2004 4:20:08 PM PDT
by
cripplecreek
(Here, bite down on this.)
To: Betaille
His theory is that elections follow the economy, and predicts that because the economy is so good Bush will win in a landslide. The reporter is snippy because the professor is a Kerry Democrat predicting a Bush landslide.
8
posted on
08/14/2004 4:21:06 PM PDT
by
labard1
To: quidnunc
If Prof. Fair's model proves to be anywhere near an accurate predictor of the November result, it will be a hard nail in the coffin of the professional pollsters - whose trade is already shaky since (1) people don't answer their phones, and (2) don't give valid answers.
To: AlbertWang
Such a Wang Wowee, if true, or even just a Fair Frolic of 57.5%, would surely include substantial legislative coattails.
To: Betaille
me either, but I'd sure like to see it
11
posted on
08/14/2004 4:21:37 PM PDT
by
The Wizard
(DemonRATS: enemies of America)
To: Malesherbes
"don't give valid answers"
Part of the problem is that many pollsters ask such loaded questions.
For example "Should the Federal Marriage Amendment be passed, or should it be up to the states to ban gay marriage?"
Well wait a minute! Somebody who beleives in the state deciding isn't necessarily against the FMA. Why not just ask the question straight:
"Should the Federal Marriage Amendment be passed?"
If they asked the question that way, you would see that an overwhelming majority answer YES! So why do pollsters ask it the first way, which is less accurate? Need I even ask?
12
posted on
08/14/2004 4:25:42 PM PDT
by
Betaille
("Show them no mercy, for none shall be shown to you")
To: AlbertWang
Albert Wang has, in the face of polls predicting otherwise, boldly stated that November will be a 45 state Bush blowout.If it even begins to look that bad for Kerry you can bet he's going to get a bad case of Toricelli-itis and drop out of the race in favor of Edwards.
13
posted on
08/14/2004 4:26:15 PM PDT
by
Tallguy
(If Clinton did a good job stopping the Millenium Bomber, I've got 2 Towers in NYC to sell you...)
To: quidnunc
As a professor of economics at Yale, you are known for creating an econometric equation that has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy.
How did he do in 2000?
14
posted on
08/14/2004 4:27:16 PM PDT
by
lelio
To: quidnunc
To: Betaille
go to www.bugmenot.com - it has passwords for all the MSM websites.
To: Betaille
Theres no way I'm signing up on the NYtimes web page. Can somebody please give a breif summary of the rest of this interview? Sure. Go to BugMeNot.com so you won't have to worry about registering for any newspaper you don't want.
17
posted on
08/14/2004 4:29:47 PM PDT
by
rdb3
("The Republican Party is the ship and all else is the sea." ---Frederick Douglass)
To: quidnunc
For once, I want what the NYTimes said to be true!
To: EGPWS
Well, that's one way. Another is that the media succeeds in fostering the public perception that the economy is doing poorly. If the NYT, LAT, WP, ABC, etc can drum that into their readers' and viewers' minds, it won't matter if there's an economic boom with close to full employment. Very few voters actually check the numbers.
To: lelio
How did he do in 2000?
He predicted Gore. His answer is that he was right about the popular vote (different article).
20
posted on
08/14/2004 4:32:02 PM PDT
by
labard1
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