How did he do in 2000?
He predicted Gore. His answer is that he was right about the popular vote (different article).
When an election gets as close as it was in 2000, it's almost impossible to predict with much confidence who will win. He's applied his model all the way back to 1916 and it holds up surprisingly well.
"How did he do in 2000? He predicted Gore. His answer is that he was right about the popular vote"
First of all I'm not so sure "Incumbency" applies to Vice Presidents. Secondly, he was actually quite accurate in that. Few people would have predicted gore to win the day before the election. I was a democrat at the time and even me and my freinds were predicting that Gore would lose by up to 10 points.