Posted on 08/13/2004 9:24:47 PM PDT by DixieOklahoma
August 13, 2004 Bush Approval at 51% Presidential contest remains tight
by David W. Moore Page: 1, 2, 3 Next GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ --
A new Gallup Poll shows a slight improvement in President George W. Bush's overall job approval rating
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
by David W. Moore
Page: 1, 2, 3 Next
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Poll shows a slight improvement in President George W. Bush's overall job approval rating, while the presidential contest remains essentially unchanged. In a two-way contest with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, Bush enjoys a slight lead among likely voters, 50% to 47%, little changed from the 51% to 47% lead he enjoyed in a July 30-Aug. 1 poll.
[graphic omitted]
Among all registered voters, the race is just a one-point difference, with Bush at 48% and Kerry at 47%. The late July/early August poll had each candidate at 48%.
If independent Ralph Nader is included in the ballot, Bush receives 48% among likely voters, Kerry 46%, and Nader 3%. Among registered voters, Bush still has a one-point lead over Kerry, 46% to 45%, and Nader gets 5%
[graphic omitted]
The changes from the last poll are within the polls' margins of error, suggesting the contest has been essentially steady over the past several weeks. Indeed, the average levels of support for the candidates in the past three polls are identical to the current results.
The current poll also shows that 51% of Americans approve, and 46% disapprove, of the way Bush is handling his job as president. For the last three months, Bush has averaged 48% approval and 49% disapproval. The current figures are a slight improvement for Bush and represent the first time he has been above the symbolically important 50% level since mid-April.
[graphic omitted]
Bush's approval ratings remain essentially unchanged on the economy (46% approval) and foreign affairs (44%), with 51% disapproving of his performance in each area.
The slight improvement in Bush's overall job rating could result from slightly more positive assessments of his handling of the terrorism and Iraq issues. While a majority of Americans continue to disapprove of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq (45% approve, 52% disapprove), this rating has improved slightly from a 42% approval to 56% disapproval rating in a June 21-23 poll.
[graphic omitted]
Bush continues to receive his highest marks on his handling of the terrorism issue, with 57% approving and 40% disapproving. This rating is slightly better than the 54% to 44% rating Bush received in mid-June.
[graphic omitted]
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,017 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 9-11, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 729 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.
For results based on the sample of 897 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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woot woot
Wider? How does going from a 51-47 lead to a 50-47 lead constitute a wider lead? Is there some DU-based encyclopedia that defines wider this way?
I think the same can be said for any incumbent with 50% or more approval at this point facing an absolute pathetic phony fraud of an individual with an imaginary friend minus his hat.
Kerry's world is crumbling along with his tall tales.
Obviously, you're not a mathemagician.
Bush's job approval rating went up. It is unheard of for a president with a job appoval rating above 50 percent to lose. A presedent with a job approval rating below 50 percent rarely wins... no matter what the canddate poll shows.
So, for the sake of this discussion, I assumed that "lead" meant the spread between the percentage for Bush vs. the percentage for Kerry.
But Bush is behind in the EC.
Right now, I think Bush will take Ohio, but is in big trouble in Florida. Right now, Kerry 308EV and Bush 221EV. Today, in Florida, Bush has an opportunity to turn it around.
Comeon dude, the Democrats just had their election and are up seven points in Florida in a flawed ARG poll and a registered voter poll by Quinnepeac, whose area of expertise is the Northeast and NOT Florida.
1) That race is closer than seven points.
2) Kerry is at his peak.
Saying Bush is behind in the electoral college right now is stating the obvious. Wait until the RNC and then start worrying. He's not in "big trouble" yet.
How many other polls have his job approval over 50%?
No, you were correct, my bad..... instead of lead widens, i should have said approval grows.
Who is 'he'? Why do so many people use pronouns instead of specific nouns? For example, four people went to a store, and "he" did such and such. Real specific, huh? Sean Hannity is a master of such foolishness. Sea will talk about someone by name, and then switch topics, and refer to the opposition by the pronoun; confusing the audience. Sean is the master of poor communication skills. Too bad that 'he' (Sean) never went to learn communication skills. If 'he' (Sean) were in the military combat zones, Sean 'he' would have caused a lot of casualties.
I believe instead of "mathemagician." you mean "mathematician".
After the ship flips over a few times, of course.
The polls i've seen has Bush ahead by 1% in florida.
And the Olympics will provide a diversion from presidential politics for the next 16 days. I remember in 1984 how Mondale pretty much fell off the face of the Earth during the Olympics. Then the Republicans held their convention.
Its based on registered voters. I suspect Bush's job approval rating among likely voters is at least three to four points higher.
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