Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Starting with Andrew, they had held telethons to raise money and specifically told people to make their checks out to "disaster services" instead of "Hurricane Andrew". That way they could redirect the money to other disasters if needed. I was so mad at that time, telling them it was wrong to do that. People were believing that their money would go to the "Andrew" fund, but in reality, the Red Cross could use it for any disaster. I understand that they got more money than needed and they wanted to use it for something else, but I was mad that wasn't being told to the public. They should have told them by making the checks out to disaster services, the money could be going to a future disaster.
So, If you choose to donate to the Red Cross and want the money to only go to "Hurricane Charley", state that on your check. If you don't mind it going to another future disaster, state it as "disaster services".
My prayers go out to those in Florida. We got lucky here in North Carolina. We have a few damaged trees and lots of water(no flooding), but all is well.
*has never been through one of these* Ok it just got DEAD calm within the past oh ten minutes or so. There was a brief but hard downpour, just as it went calm the power flickered off for a few seconds but came right back up.
According to NBC.....
Captiva island is now SPLIT INTO TWO ISLANDS...
Wow.
you wonder why there hasn't been some news choppers up with video footage of this.
I've never believed that 26 number figure. 3 or 4 people died in my development alone due to very shoddy .. criminally negligent .. construction, and with the hundreds and hundreds of undocumented aliens working in the farm fields there, living in shoddy farmland trailer communities .. I have always believed the number was in the hundreds. There were stories at that time of refrigerator trucks full of bodies. We'll never know.
Thanks - I hope the same thing.
The worst damage we got from Isabel last year was after we had all gone to bed. We heard parts of the metal roof on the barn flapping in the wind........but there wasn't a bloody thing to do about it then!!!!
Sounds like the eye is crossing you - be prepared for the backside.
we still have barely a breeze here, as it has been all day - but it has now been raining pretty heavy for about 30 minutes.
during Isabel last year we never lost power, although it flickered a few times.......but we lost the phone, and the cable.
I was prepared for electric and cable - but not the phone. No cable meant no news and no phone meant no FR - I was a lunatic!!!
There doesn't seem to be a "backside" to this storm now.
NBC 2 has lots of video of Sanibel and Captiva up on their site.
The quality sucks really really really bad.
But, you can tell there was a definite storm surge over the islands.....lots and lots of damage.
You're right!!!
I'm watching the Salisbury, MD news right now - which is actually more local for me than the Norfolk stations.
They're saying 4-6 inches of rain and about 30mph winds with gusts on the coast of about 50.
It really torqued me off earlier today when the talking head (can't think of his name) started talking about DelMarVA - but named cities on the other side of the Bay. Call me nitpicky, but having been a reporter, I've got a problem with these talking heads not doing their homework to know what they are talking about, particularly when it comes to locations in the paths of major storms.
The rain has again picked up, but there is barely a breeze.........we'll see in about 30 minutes or so.......
We discussed this LAST storm, didn't we? I think all this talk about "Why weren't these people warned" is because the reporters we have now -- or they have us at their mercy -- are stupid; they don't know geography, they don't know science, and they sure as hell don't know how government's work in situations like this.
Definitely a small world! And I hear you about the libs - from what I remember, that whole area of PA is pretty left-leaning. Hard to understand why.
Did you see the "do not use for planning purposes"? Were they posting this before?
I think so, that is a normal disclaimer there.
You've got that all correct.
We did discuss this last storm and I had the exact same problem with the national media then. I've got no problem with the region I live in not being mentioned (I actually prefer it) but if they are - at least they should get it right.
If I learned my geography from the national media I would think Wilmington, either DE or NC, was a suburb of Philadelphia and nothing existed between NYC, Philly, DC, Atlanta, and Miami.
Dumb question from a left coaster..
Since these different models are color coded-is one more likely then the others??
In other words is the blue one the most probable?(please God NO)
Or in 24 hours, the number of people killed on 9/11. Makes the "war on terrorism" seem insignificant, doesn't it?
no. it just reflects different computer algorithms - different tracks based on future predictions of other weather steering currents etc, that affect the path.
not sure if they have any stats on how often certain models are correct.
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