CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)

NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

[Jeff400000]

000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[stlnative]

Floridians Scramble to Duck Hurricane

The Associated Press

PUNTA GORDA, Fla. Aug. 13, 2004 — Don Paterson was sitting in his kitchen when Hurricane Charley did a "half-twist" on his single-wide trailer.
It sent the microwave oven flying into his head, "then the refrigerator came down on top of me. Then I'm pinned. And then a huge gust came, and I'm unpinned."

Paterson, a 68-year-old Army veteran, made it out of his home and weathered the storm behind a riding lawn mower. Debris hit the machine like shrapnel.

His home destroyed, Paterson walked along Taylor Road with a dazed look and blood trickling from several head wounds.

"Happy Friday the 13th," he said.

Charley delivered its bad luck especially hard to Punta Gorda, a city of 15,000 about 80 miles southeast of Tampa, and other parts of Charlotte County. About 50 injured people came to a Punta Gorda hospital, but it was so badly damaged officials had to send patients to other facilities via Coast Guard helicopters.

At a nursing center north of Punta Gorda in Port Charlotte, Charley broke windows and ripped off portions of the roof, but none of the more than 100 residents or staff was injured, administrator Joyce Cuffe said.

"The doors were being sucked open," administrator Joyce Cuffe said. "A lot of us were holding the doors, trying to keep them shut, using ropes, anything we could to hold the doors shut. There was such a vacuum, our ears and head were hurting."

About 100 shelters were open in Florida, and more were expected to open, Red Cross spokeswoman Carol Miller said.

"People seem to be calm. They're well organized," she said by phone from Charlotte County.

But even in shelters, things could get frightening.

In Arcadia, about 25 miles northeast of Punta Gorda, the roof blew off a civic center serving as a shelter for 1,200 people. At least one person was hurt.

"You could hear this popping and zipping noise like a giant Ziploc bag," said Alida Dejongh.

Newspapers in Charley's path were determined to go to press Friday.

The Charlotte Sun, which was in the direct path of the storm, was forced to evacuate from its building near Charlotte Harbor, said Buddy Martin, the newspaper's managing editor.

Martin, who was home when the storm hit, said he had been unable to reach his colleagues late Friday and believed they were operating from a local telephone company owned by the newspaper company.

The eye of the storm also passed over the barrier island community of Sanibel, where about 100 people refused to evacuate.

Cheryl and Robert Anderson said they stayed because they both felt ill, and also wanted to stay with their six birds. Cheryl Anderson said the hurricane, which knocked off her chimney, sounded just like the tornado she survived as a child in Missouri but lasted a lot longer.

"I wouldn't recommend it," said Cheryl Anderson, 59, guest relations manager for a resort. "As I was sitting in the bathtub I was asking, 'Why am I doing this?'"

The hurricane had been forecast to hit the more heavily populated Tampa area, which was spared when the storm took a turn to the east. Residents filled sandbags, boarded up windows, filled up shelters and made a run on gas stations in the morning, but many were headed home before sunset.

In the Florida Keys, tourists also had been told to evacuate, but the storm brushed by the island chain Friday morning, with winds up to 50 mph and drenching rain. The Monroe County Sheriff's Department reported periodic power outages.

"I guess we got lucky," said Wayne Rainboth, sitting atop a ladder as he removed plywood from the front of Jack Flats, a bar and restaurant in Key West. The establishment planned to reopen later in the day.

[wxdawg]

Yea, FL doesn't do much to weaken hurricanes...because of the flat topography...especially if they are moving quickly like Charlie. Looks like Orlando took their worst hit since Donna in 1960. Will have to see what the damage looks like in the morning in Orange Co. and surrounding areas.

Became very worried tonight about inland areas when I saw this report on the NWS wire...

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG WAUCHULA 27.55N 81.81W
08/13/2004 HARDEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE OVER COUNTY...UNNUMBERED INJURIES. HOSPITAL OUT OF SERVICE.

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG ZOLFO SPRINGS 27.49N 81.79W
08/13/2004 HARDEE FL AMATEUR RADIO

EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE. POWER LINES DOWN. MAJOR ROADS BLOCKED. CANNOT GET INTO ZOLFO SPRINGS. MOBILE HOME PARKS DESTROYED. ROOF DESTROYED AND COMMS TOWER DOWN AT HOSPITAL.

[SC Swamp Fox]

My brother is a maintenance man (sub-stations) for Tampa Electric. I think he will be getting a lot of overtime in the next couple of weeks.

[BurbankKarl]

Golfview subdivision took a direct hit... trees down, sheds blow apart.. roof damage.

The city of Wauchula is devastated.. businesses destroyed.. a usual 15 minute ride took over an hour to get to the Sheriffs Department. You need to send crews in to see the major damage done to this small town.

(from Tampa Bay Online)

[stlnative]

Charley Carves Swath of Destruction in Florida

[meyer]

I'm pretty concerned about Orlando as well. One sister lives in Windermere, and the parents and other family live in Clermont. I spoke with the parents yesterday afternoon, and they were prepared as far as food and water are concerned. Home is recent construction, with Florida's stricter hurricane-resistant building codes. Should be OK, but I'm going to contact them in the daylight hours to be sure.

[SC Swamp Fox]

It does appear to be restrengthening again.

I agree. The trip across Florida didn't disorganize the circulation as much as I would have expected.

The radar out of Jax is now showing yellow, orange and red to the west and south of the eye where there was none as it was leaving Daytona.

[NCjim]

I just got back from EI and the house is now boarded up. I saw few signs of preparation other than the movie marquis and hardware store marquis had their letters removed so as not to blow away. I did not want to take a chance as tomorrow will be too late to go down and back! It's 2:30 and WAY past my bedtime... I'll catch up on the thread tomorrow.

[stlnative]

Three Dead as Hurricane Charley Slams into Florida Coast

Damage was especially heavy in downtown Punta Gorda on Charlotte Harbour.

“It looks like a war zone – power lines down everywhere, street signs, pieces of roofs blown off, huge trees uprooted,” said Buddy Martin, managing editor of the Charlotte Sun.

Martin said he saw homes ripped apart at two trailer parks. “There were four or five overturned semi trucks – 18-wheelers – on the side of the road.”

Extensive damage was also reported on exclusive Captiva Island, a narrow strip of sand west of Fort Myers. ~SNIP~

[wxdawg]

They should be fine in a newly constructed home...esp. with current FL building codes. The highest wind gust I saw in Orlando was 105mph...and a well constructed home should weather that fine...but could have roof damage. I imagine we will see a lot of damage in Orlando to signs, trees, some roofs, and older or not-well constructed buildings.

[wxdawg]

And it's now raining in DC...

[meyer]

How about sending a little rain over to Chattanooga? :)

[SC Swamp Fox]

With the CCW rotation and the low pressure, what kind of "high tide" or storm surge do you think this "back-door" hurricane is causing in Jacksonville?

[wxdawg]

You can have it ;) Has rained plenty in the mid-Atlantic this summer....

[wxdawg]

I would think about a 2 to 4 ft. storm surge in Duval Co.

[nwctwx]

However, if I was in a hurricane warning area..on the coast..with a well organized storm heading in my direction...no matter its current intensity...I would get out. But, unfortunately, this is not often well conveyed by the broadcast media...

I was just reading through your posts and wanted to drop in on this one.

I'm no 'weather expert' but I felt it was painfully apparent what this storm might end up doing back on Wednesday. All things appeared quite conducive to create a system that was going to explode in intensity after passing Cuba. I felt that it should have been conveyed to the public that the storm was almost certain to hit somewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast due to the abnormal trough for this time of year. The media also should have informed people that the chances of a large storm were great because of the normal August bath-water SST's in that region.

I do not think the general public understands just how difficult it is to predict exactly where the strongest winds will be with a hurricane (especially one like Today's - with small eye walls). Once the evacuation orders were issued, people should have taken the warning very seriously. The fact of storm surge alone should have scared those who were near the water into leaving. I feel like the storm was largely ignored until it bombed out to a strong Category 4 this afternoon. People were laughing at the Category 2 just north of Cuba last night, they were not told that there was a great likelihood the storm would blossom as it did.

I think the NHC did a good job but speculated that the model consistency meant a hit in Tampa. Whenever I heard someone talk about the storm yesterday, they said it was going to Tampa. That was a mistake in my opinion, but the NHC continued to use strong wording (even through this morning) that it was headed for Tampa (this mornings doubly ominous statement from Tampa NWS did not help matters either). I suppose the language chosen was partly in order to get people convinced to leave the Bay area. If this had taken the original forecast track, we might be wondering why we had no news out of TPA yet.

Again, I am no expert, but I was able to deduce the following on Wednesday evening (in concert with the NWS). There are some errors, but it ended up similar to what I typed up.
--------------

Charley is still a big question mark. A Florida hit appears likeliest at this point, but some things today are focusing my attention towards the FL Panhandle/Coastal Alabama area. So far, Charley has stayed further south than any computer models suggested. This will allow the storm to have less interaction with land, and it is quite possible that it will be a very strong storm (verging on Category 3/Major) once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. The bigger the storm gets, the less it will be pulled along by the jet stream to the north. If it can gain enough steam to become a major hurricane, all bets are off. By late tomorrow evening, questions in regards to a Florida hit will be answered. This East Coast Trough (frontal system - jet stream buckle) is VERY strong for august and is actually much more typical once we get into Autumn in the US. If Charley does not manage to "create it's own weather", he will certainly go right up the east coast after the initial hit somewhere in the eastern GOM.

This following image is a historical map of where storms have gone that have been in Charley's neighborhood. If western Florida does get hit, this will be a very unusual August storm system.

[SC Swamp Fox]

I'm going to check the tides...2 to 4 extra feet of water will put a lot of things below sea level in Duval and St. Johns counties.

[PleaseNoMore]

Do you know what the appx water temps are off the Atlantic coast and are the temps very conducive to significant strengthening?

[PleaseNoMore]

Can you see my #238 and give your opinion? Thanks...

[SC Swamp Fox]

Low tide at Mayport Naval Station was a 1:27 am.