I was just reading through your posts and wanted to drop in on this one.
I'm no 'weather expert' but I felt it was painfully apparent what this storm might end up doing back on Wednesday. All things appeared quite conducive to create a system that was going to explode in intensity after passing Cuba. I felt that it should have been conveyed to the public that the storm was almost certain to hit somewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast due to the abnormal trough for this time of year. The media also should have informed people that the chances of a large storm were great because of the normal August bath-water SST's in that region.
I do not think the general public understands just how difficult it is to predict exactly where the strongest winds will be with a hurricane (especially one like Today's - with small eye walls). Once the evacuation orders were issued, people should have taken the warning very seriously. The fact of storm surge alone should have scared those who were near the water into leaving. I feel like the storm was largely ignored until it bombed out to a strong Category 4 this afternoon. People were laughing at the Category 2 just north of Cuba last night, they were not told that there was a great likelihood the storm would blossom as it did.
I think the NHC did a good job but speculated that the model consistency meant a hit in Tampa. Whenever I heard someone talk about the storm yesterday, they said it was going to Tampa. That was a mistake in my opinion, but the NHC continued to use strong wording (even through this morning) that it was headed for Tampa (this mornings doubly ominous statement from Tampa NWS did not help matters either). I suppose the language chosen was partly in order to get people convinced to leave the Bay area. If this had taken the original forecast track, we might be wondering why we had no news out of TPA yet.
Again, I am no expert, but I was able to deduce the following on Wednesday evening (in concert with the NWS). There are some errors, but it ended up similar to what I typed up.
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Charley is still a big question mark. A Florida hit appears likeliest at this point, but some things today are focusing my attention towards the FL Panhandle/Coastal Alabama area. So far, Charley has stayed further south than any computer models suggested. This will allow the storm to have less interaction with land, and it is quite possible that it will be a very strong storm (verging on Category 3/Major) once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. The bigger the storm gets, the less it will be pulled along by the jet stream to the north. If it can gain enough steam to become a major hurricane, all bets are off. By late tomorrow evening, questions in regards to a Florida hit will be answered. This East Coast Trough (frontal system - jet stream buckle) is VERY strong for august and is actually much more typical once we get into Autumn in the US. If Charley does not manage to "create it's own weather", he will certainly go right up the east coast after the initial hit somewhere in the eastern GOM.
This following image is a historical map of where storms have gone that have been in Charley's neighborhood. If western Florida does get hit, this will be a very unusual August storm system.