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CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)
NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000

000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.

CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


TOPICS: Breaking News; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: bush43; charley; charlie; elections; fl; florida; hugelosses; hurricane; hurricanecharley; hurricanecharlie; jeb; jebbush; politics; weather
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE
How high up is the land there? Any real hills till that area west of Orlando?

The only "hills" I ever ran into in that area of Fla. were the phosphate heaps near the mines. Lakeland's got the only natural hills in the state, but nothing impressive.

1,421 posted on 08/13/2004 2:05:17 PM PDT by AngryJawa (The Original Grumpy Gen-Xer)
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To: lifacs

Hi lifacs, I have family in Sarasota and in Winter Springs. Very worried about them. The Sarasotans are elderly.

Thanks for putting together a list.


1,422 posted on 08/13/2004 2:05:20 PM PDT by theophilusscribe ("America is too great for small dreams." —Ronald Wilson Reagan)
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To: 1smallVoice
Wonder if its went to a catagory 3 yet? Wont know unless reconecence plane goes up.
1,423 posted on 08/13/2004 2:05:20 PM PDT by md2576 (Freep On!)
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To: SunnySide

OH FOR HEAVEN"S SAKES: SHUT UP!!!


1,424 posted on 08/13/2004 2:05:20 PM PDT by bonfire
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To: 1smallVoice
TD's 4 & 5 on same path as Bonnie/Charley?

Next weekend perhaps we do this again?

It all depends on what the upper air patterns look like. The only thing you can do for now is PRAY!!

1,425 posted on 08/13/2004 2:05:20 PM PDT by Pyro7480 (Sub tuum praesidium confugimus, sancta Dei Genitrix.... sed a periculis cunctis libera nos semper...)
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To: 1smallVoice

5 is on same path.......4 is further west and north..

5 will probably be the one to keep an eye on.....4 is likely to turn north to sea......regardless 4 will be severaly days behind 5.


1,426 posted on 08/13/2004 2:06:19 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: BurbankKarl

I have a little hand held short wave radio receiver w/six bands, that is still in it's box.(I just dusted it off).

Would I be able to hear any "short wave" chatter on it?

here's the "list" of channels:

SW #1=49m
SW #2=41m
SW #3=31m
SW #4=25m
SW #5=19m
SW #6=16m

These all have a selection of channels(ex.#1 6.30 to 5.90)
I don't have a clue what those mean.If you could tell me if it'll pick up any "ham" chatter I'll give it a try. Thamks!


1,427 posted on 08/13/2004 2:06:24 PM PDT by musicman
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To: Netizen

did you talk you your in-laws?


1,428 posted on 08/13/2004 2:06:28 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: 1smallVoice
TD's 4 & 5 on same path as Bonnie/Charley?

TD 4 probably will track north of the islands, TD 5 is pretty far south and should track through the Caribbean. Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll be close enough for the Fujiwhara effect to fling TD4 northward and steer TD5 slightly southward.

1,429 posted on 08/13/2004 2:07:09 PM PDT by dirtboy (Forget Berger's socks - has ANYONE searched his skin folds for classified documents?)
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To: Dont_Tread_On_Me_888
Southwest Florida is strongly Republican. President Bush carried Collier, Lee, Charlotte, Sarasota, and Manatee Counties (the approximate areas being most directly affected, south to north along the Gulf Coast from Naples to Tampa Bay) with relative ease.

The retirees in the vicinity tend to come from the Midwest, as opposed to those in Palm Beach and Broward Counties on the Atlantic Coast, many of whom moved from the Northeast.

1,430 posted on 08/13/2004 2:07:44 PM PDT by southernnorthcarolina (I used to be schizophrenic, but we're fine now.)
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To: md2576

recon plane wont go up while its over land. officially at 140mph...but probably will drop to a cat 3 within an hour or so.


1,431 posted on 08/13/2004 2:07:49 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: Guenevere

Hope your daughter does okay in St. Augustine, Guennie. I've been gone for 4-5 hours and don't have the most up to date information and we have to leave again at 6:30; will check in when we get home. Keep us updated on your daughter.


1,432 posted on 08/13/2004 2:08:01 PM PDT by Peach (The Clinton's pardoned more terrorists than they ever captured or killed.)
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To: md2576
Wonder if its went to a catagory 3 yet? Wont know unless reconecence plane goes up.

5 pm advisory had it at 140mph. Still a Cat 4 by 10 mph.

1,433 posted on 08/13/2004 2:08:05 PM PDT by dirtboy (Forget Berger's socks - has ANYONE searched his skin folds for classified documents?)
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To: bonfire

I'll say a prayer for you and the "good people" of Florida


(smiles sweetly)


1,434 posted on 08/13/2004 2:08:15 PM PDT by SunnySide
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Disney took down all their livecams ("Under construction"!). Guess they don't want us to see any damage...
http://home.disney.com/DisneyWorld/cgi-bin/allCameras.cgi


1,435 posted on 08/13/2004 2:08:20 PM PDT by Drago
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To: md2576

highly doubt it.....was very close to a cat 5 if it didn't make it there when it hit land.

Should drop in a couple hours


1,436 posted on 08/13/2004 2:08:20 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: dennis1x

Any chance Charley will muddy up the atmosphere enough to keep TD5 a depression and no more?


1,437 posted on 08/13/2004 2:08:20 PM PDT by ex 98C MI Dude (Proud Member of the Reagan Republicans)
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Comment #1,438 Removed by Moderator

To: Pyro7480

It has to be diminishing somewhat. Even so, a lot of people will be buying new mobile homes next week.


1,439 posted on 08/13/2004 2:08:39 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: rwfromkansas

#1417..Thank-you, that's encouraging.


1,440 posted on 08/13/2004 2:08:58 PM PDT by Guenevere
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