Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
The only "hills" I ever ran into in that area of Fla. were the phosphate heaps near the mines. Lakeland's got the only natural hills in the state, but nothing impressive.
Hi lifacs, I have family in Sarasota and in Winter Springs. Very worried about them. The Sarasotans are elderly.
Thanks for putting together a list.
OH FOR HEAVEN"S SAKES: SHUT UP!!!
Next weekend perhaps we do this again?
It all depends on what the upper air patterns look like. The only thing you can do for now is PRAY!!
5 is on same path.......4 is further west and north..
5 will probably be the one to keep an eye on.....4 is likely to turn north to sea......regardless 4 will be severaly days behind 5.
I have a little hand held short wave radio receiver w/six bands, that is still in it's box.(I just dusted it off).
Would I be able to hear any "short wave" chatter on it?
here's the "list" of channels:
SW #1=49m
SW #2=41m
SW #3=31m
SW #4=25m
SW #5=19m
SW #6=16m
These all have a selection of channels(ex.#1 6.30 to 5.90)
I don't have a clue what those mean.If you could tell me if it'll pick up any "ham" chatter I'll give it a try. Thamks!
did you talk you your in-laws?
TD 4 probably will track north of the islands, TD 5 is pretty far south and should track through the Caribbean. Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll be close enough for the Fujiwhara effect to fling TD4 northward and steer TD5 slightly southward.
The retirees in the vicinity tend to come from the Midwest, as opposed to those in Palm Beach and Broward Counties on the Atlantic Coast, many of whom moved from the Northeast.
recon plane wont go up while its over land. officially at 140mph...but probably will drop to a cat 3 within an hour or so.
Hope your daughter does okay in St. Augustine, Guennie. I've been gone for 4-5 hours and don't have the most up to date information and we have to leave again at 6:30; will check in when we get home. Keep us updated on your daughter.
5 pm advisory had it at 140mph. Still a Cat 4 by 10 mph.
I'll say a prayer for you and the "good people" of Florida
(smiles sweetly)
Disney took down all their livecams ("Under construction"!). Guess they don't want us to see any damage...
http://home.disney.com/DisneyWorld/cgi-bin/allCameras.cgi
highly doubt it.....was very close to a cat 5 if it didn't make it there when it hit land.
Should drop in a couple hours
Any chance Charley will muddy up the atmosphere enough to keep TD5 a depression and no more?
It has to be diminishing somewhat. Even so, a lot of people will be buying new mobile homes next week.
#1417..Thank-you, that's encouraging.
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