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Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins
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Posted on 08/11/2004 2:48:37 PM PDT by Republican Red

Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins

By E&P Staff

Published: August 11, 2004

NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters out there who think the Iraq war will have a major influence on the fall election, or who think the Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a landslide.

In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small."

Fair, who claims to be a Kerry supporter, is described by the Times in the Aug. 15 issue as being known for creating an econometric equation that "has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy." His most recent book, in fact, is titled, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things."

How does he explain media expectations of a close race? Polls are "notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election," he said, while his model has allegedly proven accurate to within 2.5%.

Economic growth and inflation are really the only things that matter in a presidential race, he argues, with the current war and social issues such as gay marriage having negligible impact.

Asked if his prediction will boost Bush's prospects, Fair replied, "If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: economicmodel; electionmodel; electionpresident; elections; gwb2004; predictions; rayfair
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To: Republican Red

No matter how certain it looks that Bush will be re-elected, we all know that the Democrats are going to use every trick in the book (the one they wrote) to steal this election. Forget the polls and the pundits. I'm relying on the only thing that got Bush there in the first place--Prayer.


41 posted on 08/11/2004 3:21:53 PM PDT by giotto
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To: reagan_fanatic
"The worst prediction, George H.W Bush's 1992 re-election effort, was about four percent off, and inaccurately predicted Bush as the winner."

Didn't some dem judge or somebody indict a high ranking Bush official a few days before the election? This could account for this miss.

42 posted on 08/11/2004 3:22:37 PM PDT by lstanle
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To: Ciexyz
Just read a link on Drudge that said a majority of Israelis believe that Bush's reelection would be better for Israel, than a Kerry win. Wonder what the American Jewish leaders think about that statement?

They will rush out and vote in record numbers for whatever democrat is on the ticket.

43 posted on 08/11/2004 3:24:37 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (The time is coming for all true Patriots to rise up and take back this Republic!)
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To: numberonepal
Same here. I say 40 states. Remember folks, the Prez hasn't played all his trumps yet.

That's my call as well. Like Dukakis (who was crushing Bush Sr. at this stage), Kerry will hit a negative tipping point once the public more fully gets to know him. His ardent supporters will lose heart, the GOP base will be incredibly motivated, and the sheep and underinformed will follow Bush since that's the way the wind is blowing.

I'm an optimist, but a realistic one. And I think in December of this year, the press will laugh at anyone who thought Kerry ever had a chance.

44 posted on 08/11/2004 3:25:07 PM PDT by inkling
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To: Republican Red

Take nothing for granted!
Plan to vote. Make plans for transportation, time, and place.
Tell your friends to vote.
Spread the truth, and spread it far and wide.


45 posted on 08/11/2004 3:25:55 PM PDT by BlueNgold (Feed the Tree .....)
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To: Republican Red

QUESTION: Many of us (I live in Pennsylvania) have by choice had our phones placed on "Do not call lists". This is so we will not be harassed by fundraisers, product pushers, etc. I assume this also is the reason I have not been called
by anyone asking me who I plan to vote for.
If pollsters are blocked out by literally thousands, how
can these polls be accurate in any sense of the word?


46 posted on 08/11/2004 3:32:51 PM PDT by Winfield
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To: Republican Red
Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins

Ahhh---Finally, a headline to bring a smile to the soul.

47 posted on 08/11/2004 3:32:59 PM PDT by Right_in_Virginia
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To: stylin19a

Typically, this means a 95% confidence interval around the point estimate, plus or minus the standard error. In other words, the real number will be outside of that interval only 1 time out of 20.


48 posted on 08/11/2004 3:35:46 PM PDT by rebel_yell2
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To: Bigh4u2

"If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
Kinda like the "gay marriage" issue will turn out the believers.


49 posted on 08/11/2004 3:37:04 PM PDT by Winfield
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To: BlueNgold
Take nothing for granted!

Amen! Campaign like tomorrow is election day!

50 posted on 08/11/2004 3:37:44 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: lstanle

Yeah, they indicted former Secretary of State Al Haig! But the real reason the model blew the 92 race was Ross Perot's historic showing for a third party, drawing disproportionately from 41. Without Perot, Clinton would have remained a little-know governor from a small southern state. His ignominious place in history is safe, as is a warm place after he leaves this earth. Perot, that is.


51 posted on 08/11/2004 3:41:20 PM PDT by rebel_yell2
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To: A CA Guy

"Greenspan is trying along with the Arabs to sabotage Bush.

Twice they raised rates now before an election and they did not do that for years. "

You know why? Because the economy is improving! So his raising of the rates is a sign that greenspan believes the economy has been and will continue to get better. He's even said so.

Wall street knows it too.


52 posted on 08/11/2004 3:41:39 PM PDT by flashbunny (Click on my name!!! I dare you!!!)
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To: Republican Red
he argues, with the current war and social issues such as gay marriage having negligible impact.

BS Not when the nation has been attacked right where it lives
53 posted on 08/11/2004 3:45:10 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: Republican Red

bookmarked


54 posted on 08/11/2004 3:45:20 PM PDT by pctech
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To: Republican Red

Get out all voters! Don't take anyone's so-called "expert word" for it, and become compacent. Here in southcentral Penna, I'm taking 3-4 neighbors and employees to the polls, in the early morning on Nov 2.


55 posted on 08/11/2004 3:48:12 PM PDT by 7.62 x 51mm (• Veni • Vidi • Vino • Visa • "I came, I saw, I drank wine, I shopped")
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To: Truthsearcher

"This is why Fair's method predicted that GHWB would beat Clinton. Because although the economy had turned around before Nov 1992, the public didn't recognize the improvement til after."

-- No. He mispredicted that one due to the Perot Factor. He got 18% of the popular vote and up to 24% in some key states, including 23% in CA (Bush won CA in '88). If Perot didn't run GHWB would have won, bottom line. Furthermore, Fair's model would have still been accurate.


56 posted on 08/11/2004 3:57:31 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
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To: QQQQQ

"The Fair model's failure to take third parties into consideration may account for its failure to predict Bush's 1992 loss, when third-party candidate Ross Perot disproportionately hurt Bush, and Al Gore's loss in 2000, when Ralph Nader disproportionately hurt Gore."

-- How can you compare Perot's 18% with Nader's 3%???


57 posted on 08/11/2004 3:59:05 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
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To: wrathof59

Perot wasn't included and it screwed up the entire equation.


58 posted on 08/11/2004 4:00:54 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
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To: Ciexyz

The Jewish vote in florida is about 3 - 4%, not chump change.


59 posted on 08/11/2004 4:01:42 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis (Freedom is Not Free)
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To: Republican Red; DrDeb

Polls this far out may be off but why then is money spent on running them? Who is throwing away the money?


60 posted on 08/11/2004 4:03:01 PM PDT by TruthNtegrity ("No man works harder for his money than he who marries it.")
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