Posted on 08/10/2004 4:09:42 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE BONNIE HAS MAINTAINED A
TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DESPITE THE RECENT WEAKENING OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION. SHIP H3GQ REPORTED 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ABOUT 40 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z. BASED ON THIS REPORT AND A
RECON REPORTED PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY
BEING DECREASED TO 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/05. THE LAST TWO RECON POSITIONS
INDICATE BONNIE HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTH THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SUBSEQUENT
SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMS THIS MOTION...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SLIGHT
EAST OF DUE NORTH MOTION. THIS NEW MOTION IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
JUST AN EXTENSION AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. BONNIE
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24-30
HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WHICH CAN
RESULT IN RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. BONNIE MAY BE GOING THROUGH
ONE OF THOSE TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS NOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PREDICATED ON DEEP CONVECTION RETURNING WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. ARGUMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER
LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IS...THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTER
BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BONNIE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO A WEAK OR EVEN NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN 12-24 HOURS...VERY
WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE USUAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING...WHICH MAY CAP THE INTENSITY
TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND GFDL MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS.
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL
AREAS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.7N 90.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 90.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 26.8N 89.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 28.5N 87.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 31.0N 84.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 13/1800Z 37.0N 76.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/1800Z 53.5N 68.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
The computer models are pretty much in agreement that Charlie will pound Havana, so it's not all bad news.
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN OUR TRACK GUIDANCE FOR CHARLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH THAN IN
EARLIER RUNS...ERODING MORE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO CURVE
NORTHWARD SOONER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE
CHANGE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONES. THIS IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST NOGAPS RUN.
ALSO...SINCE THE FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT SLOWED THUS FAR...THE NHC
FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IF CHARLEY FOLLOWS THE INDICATED TRACK...THE
SPEED MAY VERY WELL BE TOO SLOW BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP IN 3-5 DAYS.
IF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE IS SIMILAR...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
MAY HAVE BE SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST.
ON THEIR FIRST PENETRATION INTO THIS STORM...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
REPORTED A 999 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET
SAMPLED ALL QUADRANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT BASED ON THIS
PRESSURE READING THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
RATHER WEAK...BUT THIS MAY VERY WELL BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING BUT REMAINS MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.2N 70.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 17.7N 77.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 19.4N 80.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 82.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 25.0N 83.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 33.0N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
Theresa Heinz will be devestated by this news along with Michael Moore...oh..and it will be Bush's fault.
Well we finally have some storms.
Do you use any tracking software? We just downloaded the free one from weather.com
Storm thread.
UGH.
Fuzzycat's gonna get wet in GA !!
It's not in breaking anymore.
Hey it's been some serious downtime since last hurricane season. We have a solid 3 months of this ahead of us at the least. I got some new toys this past year and relocated to the other coast of Florida from West to East. Now it looks like both will be entering from the West..lolol. So much for the stormchaser inside of me being treated kindly!
But, seriously, I'm in Sarasota ... and we'll be tracking Charlie big-time. Thankfully, I've got us loaded up with supplies.
This should definitely be bumped up to BREAKING NEWS.
More swift boat please!
It is Bush's plan to steal Florida again. /sarcasm
The naming committee missed an opportunity when they went with Charley over Clyde.
Too bad they didn't name them Bonnie & Clyde....
Charlie is the one to watch here...im using this GOES software I picked up about 6 months ago...been waiting to use it...should be tight. Bonnie is gonna be a rough afternoon of weather for the panhandle. I am over in Melbourne right now..hopped from Naples to Orlando over to this side for the next few months for work.
Charlie could cut clear across the state circa the late storm of 99 that we had but a bit further north...like near Sarasota!
You both beat me to it... they should have been named Bonnie and Clyde!
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