Posted on 08/10/2004 4:09:42 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA...AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42001
...INDICATE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS STRENGTHENED. BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 45 NMI NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 41 KT WITH A GUST
TO 52 KT. GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING A 10 MB PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BONNIE AND BUOY 42001 INDICATE NEAR 50-KT WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY
INCREASED TO 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/05. IT APPEARS THAT BONNIE HAS
PASSED NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BONNIE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TURN
MORE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...IF IT HASN'T DONE SO ALREADY. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LANDFALL
OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE MID-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY 24 HOURS...BONNIE COULD MAKE A
SHARP TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EAST JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS WOULD BE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK AND THIS SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY EVALUATED FOR THE NEXT
ADVISORY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL STROM WATCH AREA.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION...TOPS AS COLD AS -83C...THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTER THIS MORNING. IF RECON FINDS AN EYE OR EYEWALL FORMING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BONNIE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR TIME PERIODS...BEFORE
WEAKENING OCCURS DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
FACTORS SUPPORTING POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE INTENSITY
ARE -- BETTER INNER-CORE WIND FIELD ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY
ONGOING...DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER...LOW SHEAR
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND BONNIE PASSING OVER A
WARMER GULF EDDY IN 12-18 HOURS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.9N 90.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 29.6N 86.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 32.3N 83.4W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/1200Z 36.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
Can we please keep this in breaking news until these storms are over? This is huge news and for some reason is not being kept in the bar...big mistake..especially with landfall of both in the next 36-48 hrs.
Nice program
Jeez, one right after the other. I'm at the Jersey shore, so we won't get the full tilt, but the leftover rain, wind and high tides will make things interesting - meaning that every tourist in the area will be converging on the shore in hopes of seeing a house get washed away. Grrr.
Just think, if the names had been slightly different the title would be...State of Florida On Alert For Bonnie and Clyde
Between the frontal system and these 2 systems it should be a mess for sure at the beaches this weekend.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
...BONNIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND GETTING STRONGER...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY.
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT
205 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY
MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT ARE 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND REPORTS ALSO
INDICATE THAT A SMALL EYE MAY BE FORMING. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BONNIE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF
BONNIE REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST
TO 67 MPH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS SATURATED THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF BONNIE
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N... 89.5W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
Charley now a Hurricane
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...CHARLEY BECOMES A HURRICANE...RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER
JAMAICA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
CHARLEY HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...BANDS OF SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 993 MB...29.31 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.6 N... 76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
Bump...a hurricane now..and still no sidebar
Was it you that posted a new tracking that has the eye going over Naples?
Talk about waste of bandwith...if the mod's would have just kept this in breaking news since last night..they would have saved 5 current threads on hurricane bonnie and charley.
EM: Collier should begin
preparations for Charley
UPDATE: Collier County has issued an advisory for visitors and residents to make final preparations for landfall of Hurricane Charley. At its current velocity and direction, the storm is estimated to affect Southwest Florida late Thursday evening with a potentially dangerous storm surge. Officials encourage visitors to begin voluntary evacuations. "Should this storm hit between Fort Myers and Naples it could affect travel along I-75 northbound, so today is the day to use I-75 for voluntary evacuations," Emergency Management director Dan Summers said. Residents should begin the process of gathering emergency supplies including a three to seven-day supply of food, water, pet supplies, clothing and a first-aid kit. Homeowners should begin storing loose objects located outside their homes as a preventative measure. Click here for the latest on Charley... | Click for NHC track map... | Click for Navy track map... | Blood center open later today...
Latest NWS advisories:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...CHARLEY MOVING NEAR JAMAICA...HEADED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF OR VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF JAMAICA TONIGHT. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 77.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST... PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE... AND THE OCEAN VERY FAVORABLE... FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND... AFTER WOBBLING A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING... THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE... 290/15. I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN... AS WELL AS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
BASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD... AND THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 77.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.3N 79.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 20.5N 81.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 80 KT... NORTH COAST OF CUBA 48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.5W 90 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 45 KT... INLAND 96HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.5W 35 KT... EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1800Z 49.0N 60.0W 30 KT... EXTRATROPICAL $$
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