HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST... PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE... AND THE OCEAN VERY FAVORABLE... FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND... AFTER WOBBLING A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING... THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE... 290/15. I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN... AS WELL AS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
BASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD... AND THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 77.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.3N 79.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 20.5N 81.5W 80 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 80 KT... NORTH COAST OF CUBA 48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.5W 90 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 45 KT... INLAND 96HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.5W 35 KT... EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1800Z 49.0N 60.0W 30 KT... EXTRATROPICAL $$