Posted on 08/10/2004 11:15:32 AM PDT by RWR8189
In the second tightening of US monetary policy since May of 2000, Alan Greenspan and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the Federal Funds Rate target 25 basis points to 1.50%, as expected.
More...
Been hearing that same tune for years. Not gonna happen. Not having any problem selling treasuries, either.
they won in 92, 96, and won the popular vote in 2000. and now in 2004, a guy who should be 15 points behind, especially in the aftermath of 9-11, is leading by a few points in most polls.
I'm glad the "experts" don't understand the American economy to the degree that they can start predicting the outcomes of their changes with mathematical precision. Otherwise, they would be futzing with the control knobs on the greatest economy on earth more than they already do.
ocenview is a smart person.
------
To: jveritas
they won in 92, 96, and won the popular vote in 2000. and now in 2004, a guy who should be 15 points behind, especially in the aftermath of 9-11, is leading by a few points in most polls.
42 posted on 08/10/2004 12:53:55 PM PDT by oceanview
If I get a job by the election I'm voting for Bush. If not, I'm voting for Kerry.
fair enough
But why did we win and why did they lose in 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, and yes 2000??!!!
BTW, if you're not already aware of this, pls be advised that the capped rate futures mkts are pricing in about 75-76% probability of another 25 bp hike at the Sep meeting. I don't see it, m'self, given that Greenbean is completely a political animal and doesn't want to roil the waters, usually. However, he may be getting on to thinking himself politically invulnerable in front of the election (and, of course, he'd be quite accurate to think so; the Sheeple think this chap is the greatest financial whoozis since Morgan, whereas he pales in ability next to Volcker, who did all the really heavy lifting in the 1980s). However, I **never** argue with the mkts -- can't win, so why play, eh?
Good trading and FReegards to you!
the country is changing. the demographics are changing. the public schools are graduating more sheeple every year - into a higher education system that is dominated by liberalism. the popular media culture is liberal - and increasingly involves itself in politics. Look at the organized effort to use movies and concerts against Bush.
For all the talk about the "alternative media", we've got talk radio and web sites like this - but their reach is limited, and the audience draws from the same pool that is already on board. The one cable news channel our side had, is also drifting left.
Someone like Kerry should be 15-20 points down - he is a weak candidate, a weak man, from an ultra liberal state, trying to become president at a time when this nation faces its greatest peril, 3000+ dead in our own homeland.
And you mention 80/84/88. Recall in the restrospectives around the time of Reagan's death - his political and communications team was the best. Deaver said that Reagan knew his #1 job was to effectively communicate to the American people. How well would you rate Rove et al, against the Reagan team? Those wins in 80/84/88 are attributed to that team and to Reagan.
They had telegraphed it, so do go counter that would have caused more problems than proceeding as planned.
Most of the time the Bush team is silent. And when they do talk they use the same carefully parsed wordsmithing that I hear in the partisan media hacks that attack him. He speaks their language, he debates on their terms. God Forbid he should ever sound like a tough guy. What ever happened to "If they want some, bring it on?" It's like they've defeated him already -- forced him to be somebody he's not, and he KNOWS you can't win an election like that. You certainly can't pacify Iraq that way.
I guarantee you there will be an FF rate increase in December, perhaps even 50 bp, and very possibly one in November also -- but, the FOMC meeting is on election day in November, and Greenbean will have to be rather adroit in his timing of any announcement(s) of action(s), lest he be roundly condemned by one or another party.
They didn't NEED to change their course. Productivity is cruising, hiring is up...especially with ISM data, and the economy is humming.
The answer is Yes, he was.
Was he ahead of GHW Bush by 17 points in the polls all the way till August. Yes he was.
Who won the election. GHW Bush.
By how much?
Almost 8 points and 41 states.
week=weak
We'll see. Debt-based expansions always come to a bad end.
but, but, but... this can't be so -- the economy is in the sh!tter. (sarcasm)
Bastard.
It's really bad for guys like me. Commercial real estate mortgages will go up probably 75-100 basis points for the next few weeks or months till the panic subsides. Damn...I am in the middle of trying to fix two projects right now. Last week I could do my 5 year balloon on a 20 year AM at around 5.5%....bet it's over 6% now and that translates into considerably higher debt servicing and lower cash flow and will result in higher cap rates soon. I think Greenspan is too far ahead of the curve. He damaged W the elder remember. I have trouble trusting anyone married to Andrea Mitchell.
May I ask WHERE Elaine Chao, the phantom Labor Secretary, is? I know she is probably campaigning for her hubby, Mitch McConnell, but really, she is doing a LOUSY job of communicating on the jobs numbers. If she is not doing the job, fire her and get someone who can.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.