the country is changing. the demographics are changing. the public schools are graduating more sheeple every year - into a higher education system that is dominated by liberalism. the popular media culture is liberal - and increasingly involves itself in politics. Look at the organized effort to use movies and concerts against Bush.
For all the talk about the "alternative media", we've got talk radio and web sites like this - but their reach is limited, and the audience draws from the same pool that is already on board. The one cable news channel our side had, is also drifting left.
Someone like Kerry should be 15-20 points down - he is a weak candidate, a weak man, from an ultra liberal state, trying to become president at a time when this nation faces its greatest peril, 3000+ dead in our own homeland.
And you mention 80/84/88. Recall in the restrospectives around the time of Reagan's death - his political and communications team was the best. Deaver said that Reagan knew his #1 job was to effectively communicate to the American people. How well would you rate Rove et al, against the Reagan team? Those wins in 80/84/88 are attributed to that team and to Reagan.
Most of the time the Bush team is silent. And when they do talk they use the same carefully parsed wordsmithing that I hear in the partisan media hacks that attack him. He speaks their language, he debates on their terms. God Forbid he should ever sound like a tough guy. What ever happened to "If they want some, bring it on?" It's like they've defeated him already -- forced him to be somebody he's not, and he KNOWS you can't win an election like that. You certainly can't pacify Iraq that way.
The answer is Yes, he was.
Was he ahead of GHW Bush by 17 points in the polls all the way till August. Yes he was.
Who won the election. GHW Bush.
By how much?
Almost 8 points and 41 states.
Exactly - It is starting to dawn on some people within the GOP (those stone-faced types that say there is NO WAY GWB can lose) -
Well, at a recent GWB meeting here in MI (last Thursday) I seen two of these type people finally "blink" shall we say - They know there is something amiss out there - That perhaps the GWB camp sitting back and doing NOTHING from OCT 2003 until March of 2004 was about as dumb a strategy as there ever could be!! -
GWB allowing the false premise to be set on the Economy is killing him - and the lack of any coherent systematic policy to get the premise back is hurting him even worse -
Not addressing the Nation once this year to set the premise straight on Iraq and the economy is about as dumb as anything his reelection team has or hasn't done -
You nailed it oceanview. (See comment #49) This is why it's so important for President Bush to be reelected. We need conservative judges on the SCOTUS. Hopefully there's still time to turn the ship around. If not, we are surely headed for ruin. There are times I'm very glad I'm not 25 yrs old.