Posted on 08/04/2004 4:11:21 AM PDT by kattracks
Kerry's a captive of the overbearing, elitist wing of his party
In 1972, The New Yorker's movie critic, Pauline Kael, won herself a place in political lore by expressing astonishment at the Republicans' 49-state landslide victory. "How could that be?" she demanded. "I don't know a single person who voted for Nixon."
I don't live in such a rarified world, but most of my friends are voting for John Kerry. And I imagine that a good many will be shocked when President Bush wins in November.
It is possible that no Democrat could beat Bush this year. The President has Ralph Nader on his side, and demography. Since the 2000 election, shifts in population have added seven electoral votes to the Red Bush states and subtracted seven from Goreland.
This alone might be enough to put Bush over the top in a tight race. But despite the polls, I don't think this election will be close, and this time the Democratic establishment won't be able to blame the Supreme Court. If they're fair, they'll blame themselves. Since this is politics, they'll blame the candidate.
John Kerry is not a bad man. He probably wouldn't make a bad President. But he is a bad candidate in a terrible situation. He represents the wing of the Democratic Party that is imbued with a sense of its own moral, intellectual, cultural and social superiority. In short, he is the standard bearer for the unbearable.
These people don't comprise a majority of the electorate or even Democratic voters (how could they and remain an elite?), but they have convinced themselves that they and their candidate - if packaged properly - will prove irresistibly attractive to lesser Americans.
Boston, with its flag-waving and saluting and balloon-blowing was supposed to be a commercial for this new and superior brand of politics. But Americans are expert TV watchers. A lot of them voted with their remotes. Those who did watch weren't impressed. The Democrats' much anticipated post-convention bump turned into a thud. George McGovern got one of those in 1972.
Kerry now has 90 days to convince voters that a Bush victory in November would be, as his wife put it in Milwaukee on Monday, "four more years of hell."
The problem is, most Americans don't regard their lives as "hell" or Bush as Satan. The economy, after all, is not really in a Great Depression. In fact, it's doing pretty well. Iraq isn't Vietnam, and won't be unless there's a draft. The Islamic jihad against America isn't Bush's fault, either. A candidate who insists otherwise is bound to strike voters as detached from reality.
Kerry ought to know this, and he may. But his party is dominated, as it was in 1972, by people who talk only to one another and who are convinced that everybody despises Bush. They will judge Kerry by how hard he goes after the Crawford Beelzebub.
Right now the polls look even. But that's an optical illusion. The President has a Republican convention coming up and the power of incumbency to shape events between now and November. In other words, he's way ahead.
Kerry is a weak campaigner. Barring some kind of national disaster, his best shot is the debates. Democratic true believers think he'll kill Bush, one on one. That's what they thought about Al Gore, too.
Calling a presidential race in August is risky, especially a race that's supposedly close. But no guts, no glory. Bush will beat Kerry in a walk. If I'm right, you read it here first. If not, well, even Pauline Kael got it wrong once in a while.
Originally published on August 4, 2004
Many thanks to you and Zev Chafets.
You speak the truth-what nuance. Oh wait, I forgot only flip-flopper Dems have numance.......
Oh dude, you got the makings of a great Photoshop Project.
That Picture with Hillary Strattling the edwards toliet taking a man Pee.
He's certainly paying a lot of attention to MI. He'll be holding another rally tomorrow evening, in Saginaw this time. He's playing for keeps!
I have seen polls that make New Jersey close and Freepers from Michigan say their state is in play. What have you heard about Washington?
Washington was close last time. There is no reason to believe it won't be closer this time.
bump
Well, ... No...
I've been reading FReepers' analysis of this year's almost exactly matching this one.
Actually, I read it at FR first.
.
I like it!
Agreed!
Has the phrase "Empty suit" yet been applied to Hanoi John Effing Kerry?
Kerry has so few REAL supporters that he has to bus the same supporters with him, as he travels from state to state. When he speaks in Wisconsin, how many folks at the rally are really from Wisconsin? Not many.
****Kerry's a captive of the overbearing, elitist wing of his party.****
My hiney!! He's a charter member.
Don't you dare get complacent about this election! You make your sick granny get out and vote. Carry her to the booth! Any God fearing American who fails to vote in this election deserves to have the ground open up and swallow him/her.
We hard red staters out here don't matter all that much. It's a given. All your electoral votes are us! But you battle-ground staters hold all our futures in your very hands. Please don't let us down.
Good point. Even the sold-lock-stock-and-barrel-to-the-rats-afro-americans hate homosexual union (eeewww). Taxachusettes just ruled that faggotry should be ordained by the state. Many many democrats of the old stripe may just stop and think whether the scion of that states needs to sit in the White House.
Well, that's easy. It's because we are all going to crawl through broken glass to vote for him.
bttt
You darn right it is an optical illusion, and every democratic human in the Media is a victim of that illusion, which pleases me to no end. Furthermore, another very important reason President Bush will be in office for 4 more years is because Terry McAWFULiffe heads the DNC and continues to mis-judge the American people and no one on the 'extreme left' wants to acknowledge that fact. So I continue to get free laughs at their expense on a daily basis. Could I ask for more?
When I moved to NC from OH 22 years ago, the natives welcomed me with open arms, saying that anyone that moved to NC from OH was a closet redneck.
Yes, I had the honor of voting for Jesse Helms three times.
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