Posted on 08/03/2004 7:02:20 AM PDT by veronica
BUSH BY A LANDSLIDE
A Yale economist, Ray Fair has constructed a model that predicts the outcome of presidential elections using economic data alone. The model’s predictive power? As good as that of any model and better than that of most.
What does the Fair model predict for 2004? Bush will win in a landslide, capturing more than 57 percent of the vote. To see for yourself, click here...
| Presidential Vote Equation |
| The following paper presents the November 1, 2002, update of the vote equation. No specification changes were made for this update from the previous update (in November 1998), which itself was unchanged from the update before that. The equation was simply reestimated using the latest data. This paper also contains the first prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update. November 2002 update paper and the November 1, 2002, prediction Compute your own prediction for 2004 using the 2002 update Predictions for 2004 using 2002 update: January 30, 2003, prediction April 25, 2003, prediction July 31, 2003, prediction October 31, 2003, prediction February 5, 2004, prediction April 29, 2004, prediction July 31, 2004, prediction Earlier update papers: 1982 1988 1990 1996 1998 Original paper: 1978 Non technical discussion: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things (Chapters 1, 3, and 4) |
The left will not stop screaming no matter what, you should not allow that to discomfort you.
I always remind myself what Rush has been saying for years: The more power they loose the kookier they get. This election season we are seeing that play out in spades IMNSHO.
Which is what I hate about national elections now. they aren't national.
Reagan won a landslide at 55%. Anything more than 10 points is a landslide.
Does it take into account all the Democrap fraud that is bound to occur? . . . as happened last time in WI (union fraud; vote buying), IO (more people voted than were registered), MI (union s stuffed ballot boxes), MO (polls kept open late), PA (documented busloads of blacks going to several different polling places), NM (2 missing ballot boxes in Republican districts in a state decided by 500 votes), CA (millions of illegals registered; 1 million absentee ballots, including military, never counted), and FL (on my God!) . . . . O.K., so I am probably forgetting some states and some instances of fraud. But, remember that Bush "lost" all of these escept MO and, yes, FL. The point is: if the election is close at all, be afraid! Be very afraid!
and yeah, once again it'll come down to the debates.
Why don't you tell us what you really think of the guy.
And what happens when they realize they have nothing more to lose?
I'm just hoping the MSCA missions we've planned don't get used.
Voters will get into the polling booth and have their moment of truth about John Kerry, Michael Moore, Howard Dean, and Islamist terrorism.
GWB wins.
Such a number would mean a landslide in electoral votes.
My gut instinct is that this election is going to be a repeat of 2000 - GWB losing the popular vote yet winning the electoral college.
Ah, you've hit the nail on the head: the first attempt at extrapolating from his data, Mr. Fair's prediction was a flop.
I haven't had my coffee yet. What does that mean?
And what happens when they realize they have nothing more to lose?
I think they'll nominate M. Moore next time. LOL
In November 2003 Albert Wang predicted 45 State Bush Blowout.
In August 2004 Albert Wang predicts 45 State Bush Blowout.
When America takes a good look at the Democratic product they will Vote W.
I think Bush will win by 3-5%. But who knows...
There can be popular vote landslides and electoral college landslides. Just for comparison, here are a few landslides of the last century. I think 1920 is particularly interesting because it clearly was a popular vote landslide but the electoral college wasn't in the same class as the others. On the other hand, 1984 wasn't quite up to the other popular vote landslides, but was right there in electoral votes:
1984
Reagan 58.8% 525 electoral votes
Monday 40.5% 13 electoral votes
1972
Nixon 60.3% 520 electoral votes
McGovern 37.7% 17 electoral votes
1964
Johnson 60.6% 486 electoral votes
Goldwater 38.6% 52 electoral votes
1936
Roosevelt 60.6% 523 electoral votes
Landon 36.8% 8 electoral votes
1920
Harding 60.5% 404 electoral votes
Cox 34.2% 127 electoral votes
MSCA - Military Support of Civilian Authority.
It's one of the National Guard's primary missions. Disaster relief, search & rescue...
...riot control and civil disorder.
Thanks, I'm going for the coffee now.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.