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Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat - Thread Sixteen
Yahoo ^ | 8-02-04 | AP

Posted on 08/02/2004 5:12:31 PM PDT by JustPiper

click here to read article


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To: Rutles4Ever

I can only tell you what I am allowed to.

I cannot post anything "sensitive" on the internet.

I am not going to risk losing my job.

This site is monitored by DHS.

I will however, tell you what I can.


301 posted on 08/03/2004 8:53:31 AM PDT by Mossad1967
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To: Domestic Church

That article concerned me as well!



302 posted on 08/03/2004 8:54:24 AM PDT by Velveeta
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Comment #303 Removed by Moderator

To: All

Alerts keeping police hopping

It was a rude awakening for cops and civilians alike: a suitcase left in the middle of a bustling Park Slope, Brooklyn, street at 7 a.m. (snip)
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/local/story/218506p-187922c.html


304 posted on 08/03/2004 9:01:19 AM PDT by Velveeta
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To: tmp02; Oorang; drymans wife; MamaDearest; nwctwx; Domestic Church; Rushmore Rocks; Labyrinthos; ...
Very busy weekend and I’ve had to play catch-up. The DHS alert and recent intelligence from captured AQ personnel and equipment in Pakistan is very significant and is commented on in various sections of this summary. Things could be breaking very fast based upon what they find. Please let me know if you want to be on the distribution list. I’ve tried to be inclusive as possible but I may have missed some, please forgive.

Summary 8/03/04 - Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
(8/1/04) Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C

1. Attack threat windows - (8/3/04) An operative, described as "credible" by British intelligence, told his debriefers that the attack would take place "60 days before the presidential election" on Nov. 2, according to a former senior National Security Council official. On Sept. 2 (60 days prior) President George W. Bush is expected to address the Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden.. The news report is not specific, but the general context suggests that the operative was one of those recently captured by Pakistan.

Secondary window: Between now and Nov 2, 2004. This window is based upon AQ threats to disrupt our national elections. However, OBL has released a tape (see below) and that could open the gates for the next round(s) of attacks worldwide.

International

(7/31/04) OBL has reportedly released a new message condemning the Jews, the U.S. and countries supporting the US in Iraq. Interesting note is that Spain is still included on the ‘hate’ list of countries. Guess OBL didn’t get the memo on the change in leadership there after 311.
(8/1/04) Things generally happen shortly after a message release. However, not sure at this time if the following are related: AQ attacks churches, see Iraq below, parallel additional threats to Italy and heighten alert status in US.

(8/02/04) A courier has been reportedly been intercepted inside of Iraq with a message from Al-Zarqawi attempting to contact Bin laden.

Iraq - (8/1/04) I’ve left Iraq out because of the daily activity levels. However on Sunday, 5 out of 6 (the 6th failed to go off) car bombs exploded at Christian Churches throughout Iraq within 15 minutes of each other. This is a significant change in targets and the attacks bear the trademark of AQ. They occurred after OBL’s latest message and seem to be linked to the most recent al-Masri warning to Italy.

Italy. – (8/1/04) Associated Press. A new warning from Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades gave Italy another 15 days to withdraw its troops from Iraq before sending "waves of earthquakes to erase your country," according to a statement sent to the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper, an Arabic newspaper Sunday. It was the fifth threat since the end of the European ‘truce’ on July 15. The statement urged the Italians to remember the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist bombings in the United States and the bombs in Madrid last March. Rome has been specifically mentioned in other threats. Previous threats issued July 2, 16, 26, 28 & 30. An additional communiqué from Tawhid on July 25th threatens Australia and reiterates the al Masri threat to Italy. In the face of these numerous threats, if something doesn’t happen soon, then al-Masri and AQ risks losing face. Some U.S. officials and some terrorism experts believe Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, lacks credibility and has only tenuous ties to al-Qaida.

England (8/3/04) BRITAIN’S security forces were yesterday put on "heightened readiness" for a potential terrorist attack, after detailed al-Qaeda plans to attack UK targets were uncovered. Although in the case of the UK no specific targets have been named, e-mails about attacks on both the US and Britain had been found on a computer belonging to Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, wanted for the 1998 twin US embassy bombings in Africa. The intelligence gathered over the weekend pointed to al-Qaeda tactics of a car or lorry bomb.

Japan – nothing new to report

Australia – No new threats issued today.

Uzbekistan (8/1/04) — Remains on high alert after at least two Uzbeks were killed in suicide attacks at the U.S. and Israeli embassies on Friday.

Turkey – (7/28/04) News services reported that airport security went to level ‘yellow’ second highest based upon threat that AQ would launch a 911 style attack or blow-up an airliner.

Iran – (8/2/04) Iran’s determination to continue with its nuclear program continues to keep tensions high with the west.

Syria – Information suggests that they are supplying terrorists with rocket components to attack Israeli targets from S. Lebanon.

Israel - (8/3/04) The Palestinian militant group Hamas has issued a video threatening daily attacks on the Israeli town of Sderot unless soldiers halt a month long operation aimed at stopping rocket attacks. .

United States

(8/3/04) Additional information from the AQ computer geek identified other sites in the US and apparently in England. Current media reports are dismissing the 8/1 alert because indications are that the surveillance info is in some cases pre-911. However, surveillance of the 911 targets began 6 years before the attack. Additionally, it appeared that some of the target data had been recently updated. Secondly, media reporting that DHS has stated that the data is from multiple, confirming sources. Additional unverified information coming from Pakistan suggests that an attack may be planned for the week of the RNC in NYC. This could be the reason behind the image of OBL and a map of NYC with explosions marked at various locations. With the heightened awareness around these targets, AQ will either have to cancel, delay or go after secondary targets.

AQ has developed a desire to time attacks to influence the electorate based upon their successful Madrid bombings. However, there is speculation on whether or not an AQ strike before the elections would help or hurt the President. Either case, it would be a big gamble for AQ, especially since our LEA and intel folks are looking for it.

(8/2/04) The plans for attacks in the U.S. and U.K were found in e-mails on the computer of Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, a Tanzanian arrested July 25. Also, Pakistani authorities have in custody another top Al-Qaida agent. Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan, was described by a Pakistani intelligence official as a 25-year-old computer engineer, arrested July 13, who had used and helped to operate a secret Qaeda communications system where information was transferred via coded messages.

(8/1/04) DHS increased the threat level to Code Orange for the financial services sector in New York City, Northern New Jersey and Washington, D.C. More details under Dept of Homeland Secty below.

2. Attack method.

A. (8/2/04) DHS briefing of 8/1 (see below) indicates attack method using car or truck bombs. Since 5 specific locations were identified, it would be assumed that they would be hit in a coordinated manner. The recent Madrid attacks indicated that AQ has worked up to a higher number of coordinated efforts. As described by DHS, this has the makings for a classic AQ strike – 5 targets in regionally close proximity, somewhat lower on the radar screen than other, more key locations, thus with the potential to be less well guarded.

(8/2/04) Nearly 1.5 tons of stolen ammonium nitrate are unaccounted for in North Carolina. Theft was reported on July 9. Mixed with fuel oil, ammonium nitrate is a favored ingredient used in al Qaeda truck bombs. Nearly a month after the theft was reported, 59 bags (2,950 pounds) of the volatile fertilizer are still unaccounted for. Is it uncertain if the theft is related to the current heighten threat status of NY, NJ and DC but is a troubling possibility.

B. Discussion in TM, internet and from national news sources indicate continued AQ interest in aircraft hijacking. Thoughts range from using far more people to putting together a ‘weapon’ of some sort in a toilet. This weapon could be an explosive device or a chemical of some sort. Another aspect is having more terrorists on the plane to help keep the passengers subdued if they can take over the craft. One piece of the puzzle missing is how the terrorists would get past the reinforced doors to the cockpit.

C. (8/3/04) IMHO, AQ nuclear option, though still rumored, does not appear to be as strong given the intel surrounding the 8/1 DHS alert, which indicates a more traditional truck bomb approach. One answer could be that the AQ computer guy did not have access to that ‘compartment’ of the terror planning. However, given that he was the one who set up their secure comms system, for him NOT to be aware would be surprising.

Personnel - (7/30/04) DHS is more concerned about terrorists infiltrating into the US from Mexico. This could be why the US Border Patrol is increasing its attention to the southern border. Southern Arizona has been considered by some to be a terrorist haven area. According to the Tombstone AZ newspaper, a total of 77 ME men were captured between June 13th and 21st in S. Arizona.

One purpose the infiltration of ME men in to the US could serve would be to supply more people for more initial and follow-on car/truck suicide bomb attacks. The effect of dozens of simultaneous car-bomb attacks at soft targets (malls, amusement parks, sporting events, etc) would create substantial panic as this would reveal to the American people that we are far more vulnerable than the general person on the street thinks we are.

A second reason is that the US Moslem community is absent martyr complex and substantial cultural ‘brain washing’ prevalent with the Middle East jihadists and not inclined to commit suicide, thus the bulk of people needed to commit suicide bombings are having to be ‘imported’. With the exception of 911, the suicide car bomb has been the weapon of choice, needing only willing martyrs and the careful accumulation of explosive material (fertilizer, etc).

(7/28/04) A South African woman, Farida Goolam Mohamed Ahmed, was picked up in Texas at McAllen Miller International Airport on July 19. She had illegally entered the US via Mexico and is suspected of being associated with Al-Qada.

(7/28/04) The American Muslim Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development charity and seven of its officers were charged Tuesday with providing millions of dollars in support to Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist organization blamed for dozens of suicide bomber attacks in Israel.

(7/28/04) Michael Wagner, 44, of San Diego, was arrested this week and said he had knowledge of terrorist activities and people and groups tied to al-Qaida and the Taliban. Wagner also said that he knew about things in the Muslim communities in San Diego that would interest federal authorities. IMHO this guy is a thug wannabe using the terrorist angle to try to get off easier.

(7/29/04) The FBI and Orlando Police have confirmed 3 Middle Eastern men were detained last week trying to board a flight at Orlando International Airport. As they were checking in for a flight to Oman at the ticket counter the name of one of the men appeared on a computerized "do-not-fly" list compiled by the Transportation Security Administration. All 3 men were placed into the custody of a federal agent.

4. Significant meetings canceled:

A. (8/2/04) None I am aware of.

5. Security has been heightened in specific cities
(8/1/04) NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are now at threat level ORANGE.

(8/02/04) Until further notice, trucks are now banned from taking the Williamsburg Bridge into Lower Manhattan. The Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels are now closed to all in-bound commercial traffic. Police in Washington DC announced plans to block all traffic flow around the Capitol, and to search some of the vehicles, to ensure that explosives do not get near the building.

GENERAL: (8/01/04) New Mexico officials also decided to raise the threat level for banking and financial companies there, and Massachusetts officials planned to send a letter advising financial institutions to review security measures.

Boston, Philly, Seattle, LA. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Some of this is in response to the upcoming republican convention. Other major financial office centers in many cities are taking additional precautions.

Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary. However, this appears to be in part in line with scheduled increased security posture and not necessarily in response to a specific threat.

6. Military operations. The fleet is deployed conducting various maneuvers and exercises.

The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.

The first national ABM missiles are being installed in Alaska.

(7/29/04) Elements of the 2nd Infantry division stationed in Korea are deploying to Iraq as scheduled.

(7/29/04) The first successful test of the Israeli Arrow anti-missile system was successfully conducted over the Pacific Ocean from Vandenberg AFB.

7. Dept of Homeland Scty.
(8/1/04) Key excerpts from Sec. Ridge’s briefing:
” This afternoon, we do have new and unusually specific information about where al Qaida would like to attack. As a result, today, the United States Government is raising the threat level to Code Orange for the financial services sector in New York City, Northern New Jersey and Washington, D.C.”

“This is the first time we have chosen to use the Homeland Security Advisory System in such a targeted way. Compared to previous threat reporting, these intelligence reports have provided a level of detail that is very specific. The quality of this intelligence, based on multiple reporting streams in multiple locations, is rarely seen and is alarming in both the amount and specificity of the information.

“While we are providing you with this immediate information, we will continue to update you as the situation unfolds. As of now, this is what we know: reports indicate that al Qaida is targeting several specific buildings, including the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York . Let me assure you, actions to further strengthen security around these buildings are already underway. Additionally, we’re concerned about targets beyond these and are working to get more information. “

“We have talked with the executive leadership of the companies that own these businesses and operate these buildings – the people who know these facilities best. We have told them that, at this time, there is no information that indicates a specific time for these attacks beyond the period leading up to our national elections.

Other details now emerging not covered in the briefing is the level of detail the surveillance of the target locations. Average numbers of pedestrians, security, structural details, best coffee shops to stop at to permit surveillance were among the data collected in regards to this threat. See this link for more details:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1183005/posts

(7/30/04) The FBI says they received intelligence late last week that al-Qaida may have had an attack planned on New Mexico in May, but scrubbed it because of heightened security.
(7/29/04) The FBI warned police in California and New Mexico that it received information about possible terrorist activity in their states. However, the warning wasn't specific about particular targets or a method of attack, a federal law enforcement official said Thursday. The FBI decided to pass along the threat information but warned that it was considered unsubstantiated and uncorroborated, said the official, who spoke only on condition of anonymity.

8. Domestic Terror Currently Not Linked to Jihadists

a. None currently identified.

305 posted on 08/03/2004 9:01:43 AM PDT by Godzilla (Bush/Cheney 04 - because my life does depend upon it.)
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To: MamaDearest
"Those deriding the "old information" about NY, etc. are truly ignorant of the way AQ operates. Years and years of planning go into their operations."

Exactly. It is exasperating that some folks don't get it!

306 posted on 08/03/2004 9:02:30 AM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: liz44040; Mossad1967
perhaps you could think of some cryptic way of letting us know without revealing sensitive information.

I vote that M67 not do the cryptic stuff. It would be divulging info and could be misinterpreted into false speculation.

307 posted on 08/03/2004 9:03:54 AM PDT by Godzilla (Bush/Cheney 04 - because my life does depend upon it.)
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To: JustPiper

LOL!


308 posted on 08/03/2004 9:04:00 AM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: Velveeta
"I've mentioned before that last summer I witnessed 2 guys filming a building in Chicago. Like a kid with their hand caught in a cookie jar, when I walked within their view....the one guy quickly put the camera down to his side. Later, when I looked back...they were filming again."

WE need to all be carrying cameras or videocams, and snap pictures or film those guys that are filming buldings, bridges, tunnels.

309 posted on 08/03/2004 9:06:03 AM PDT by CharlotteVRWC
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To: Velveeta

Thanks for the info on Kerry Vel. I've copied and printed it to show to some of my friends who support the creep.


310 posted on 08/03/2004 9:06:30 AM PDT by appalachian_dweller (Threat Level: HIGH -- For a list of survival gear go to my FR Homepage.)
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To: HipShot

A sharp blow to the point of the nose with the palm of the hand also works well. There are nerve bundles between the shoulder joint and base of the neck, which if struck firmly will cause temporary paralysis. There are also nerve bundles on the mound of the forearm just below the elbow that if struck firmly will temporarily immobilize the arm. The top of the foot near the leg bone is also a painfull spot. One of the best carry on weapons is a belt with a heavy metal buckle. Always carry a sharp pen and a key ring so that the ring fits into your palm when you make a fist and the longest key sticks out between your index and middle finger. The key is to focus and to size up your potential opponent before you have to act so that you have a plan of attack if the need arises.


311 posted on 08/03/2004 9:08:30 AM PDT by Labyrinthos
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To: HipShot; mindspy

Sounds silly, but it may not be. Their messages appear to be citing how we worked with codes during both World Wars and other wars. Whatever we used that was effective remains in play for them if they want to try it.


312 posted on 08/03/2004 9:08:49 AM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: Godzilla

Thanks...........great post and info..........again.


313 posted on 08/03/2004 9:09:45 AM PDT by Rushmore Rocks
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To: liz44040

I think he already did.


314 posted on 08/03/2004 9:10:20 AM PDT by mindspy
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To: Velveeta

Copied and emailed out to the usual suspects...


315 posted on 08/03/2004 9:10:20 AM PDT by null and void (Nothing like a near-death experience to change bad habits...)
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To: Mossad1967

It's cool. Reveal what you can, but don't cross the line.


316 posted on 08/03/2004 9:12:28 AM PDT by LikeLight (__________________________)
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To: Mossad1967

Fair enough.


317 posted on 08/03/2004 9:12:42 AM PDT by null and void (Nothing like a near-death experience to change bad habits...)
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Comment #318 Removed by Moderator

To: Selene

I know, this gets me pissed, too. The media puts their wrong, wishful spin on everything.

We know that the info old or new doesn't really matter. We either use it to prevent an attack now or in the future. Afterall, we know that al qaeda ain't canvassing for nothing.

In fact, that the extensive background info is older is even more worrying. This morning, an administration spokeswoman (I forget her name; works for Tom Ridge) said that the info is older and some has been refreshed. This fits al qaeda's strike MO. They do years of prep and then do a revisit to get current right before an attack.


319 posted on 08/03/2004 9:17:43 AM PDT by Donna Lee Nardo
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To: Godzilla
Re #305

Excellent summary Godzilla! Thanks for your hard work.
320 posted on 08/03/2004 9:17:49 AM PDT by appalachian_dweller (Threat Level: HIGH -- For a list of survival gear go to my FR Homepage.)
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