Posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:48 PM PDT by SamAdams76
Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).
If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.
Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.
When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.
By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!
Here are the convention bounces of other losers...
Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points
Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.
So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.
Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.
Kerry doesn't have baggage!? He's a freekin gigalo married to a billionaire whackjob foreigner. If that ain't baggage I don't know what is. Clintoon was a selfmade evil genius with a penchant for strange tail. If I had to take one or the other it would be the sink meister.
Thats funny
hehehe! :^)
You don't address the fact that the onus on reporting such electoral tampering falls on those who observe it, thus they must determine and report to the proper authorities the identities of the offenders for any corrective action to be taken. It's not as clear cut or negligible an issue as you'd apparently like to believe.
Clear enough?
Kerry's only bounce is when he throws out the first ball in a baseball game.
Yesterday there were reports of a negative bounce for Kerry.
"Plan 4 Prosperity. Marry Wealth & Sue The Rich."
Great Bumper Sticker.....
...."and boy, did the Dems pick a dud."
Dean imploded, Kerry was the last choice. Bwahahahaha.
Excellent analysis!
I've been thinking it will be a landslide. I just cannot see people going for Kerry even in a pre-9/11 world. We're at war and people won't change presidents during a war.
Yes it is. I'm sure there are clever Freeper designers here who could make this one look like a bona fide John Kerry sticker
Not true. Humphrey got the last minute bounce from the October 31 bombing halt ordered by Johnson. Over the weekend, however, it became clear that South Vietnam would not participate in the sham peace talks engineered for political purposes, and the election was drifting back to Nicon. Another week, and Nixon would have won decisively.
..
This goes without saying but I'll mention it anyway. If Osama Bin Ladin then the GOP convention tv audience and Bush's numbers go through he roof :o)
Lord, please allow it to happen.
Lord, please allow it to happen.
Lord, please allow it to happen.
Or killed. Don't forget killed.
In fact, if Osama is killed, name that guy and make him a hero. The Tom Lanphier of the War on Terror.
Like Ralph Peters, I hope the "guy" who kills Osama is a gal. Nothing like adding insult to injury.
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