Click Image to Watch Alexandra Kerry at 2004 DNC
Tell Her Favorite True Story About Her Father
(1.57 MB .wmv Video)
Posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:48 PM PDT by SamAdams76
Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).
If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.
Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.
When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.
By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!
Here are the convention bounces of other losers...
Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points
Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.
So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.
Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.
"I want a landslide because I don't intend to spend the next 4 years like the last 4 years listening to the dems whine about stealing an election. I want there to be NO question, I want the french to shut up, I want the dems to shut up, and I want the terrorist supporters to shut up. If this country is fully behind our president the entire world will shut up!"
That is EXACTLY what I want. I am SO sick and tired of
all of the whining. I want a slam dunk!
Thanks for the ping, Howlin.
I didn't want you to miss this fantastic post, onyx.
So did I. It seems that when favorable pollings results are obtained for Democrats, they are trumpeted to no end. But when polling results are not favorable for Dems, we just don't hear about them at all.
Maybe some more favorable polls will be baked up this weekend for Monday, but by then the DNC convention will be old news and media attention will start to focus on the upcoming RNC convention. For the most part, the Kerry campaign has reached its high-water mark and the tide is rolling out.
I agree......I think the RNC has some great speakers lined up.....
I am afraid of being too confident, but I'm feeling good after reading how low the "bounce" was historically.
I'm telling every "undecided" I know to vote for Bush and why they should......! Get the word out to those who don't pay attention!
It is GWB's responsibility because of his weak dollar policy. The good news is Kerry is the worst candidate I've ever seen.
Dick Morris really hit on this hard the other day. His quote about Kerry was a classic:
"His autobiography ends at the age of 24."
If I read this info on another thread correctly, MSNBC has a new "Gestopo." He will not allow right wing politics.
Have you noticed Pat Buchanan and Scarborough's sudden political change lately? If they want to keep their jobs, they have to be pro-Kerry.
I suspect that hillary is behind the bunny suit photo. Bob Graham is in the Clinton mafia. I'm not sure about Bill Nelson, but I wouldn't be surprised. They are both familiar with NASA and probably knew that Kerry would look worse than Dukakis in that suit.
According to IEM, Kerry's stock has dropped from 51.6 on the 26th, the day the convention started, to $0.481 yesterday. That's a 3.5 pt. DROP! If you look at the numbers even closer, you will see an even bigger drop. On Friday, Kerry dropped from $0.524 to $0.481, which id 4.3 points! MY take on a 4.3 pt. drop in a single day is because that's the day everybody read about Kerry's speech in the papers (nobody watched).
In contrast, Bush went from $0.492 on the 26th to $0.515 yesterday and holding steady through the day. That's 2.3 point bump -- for Bush! In fact, Bush stock peaked as high as $0.54 on Friday. That's nearly a 5-pt. bump for Bush!
http://128.255.244.60/quotes
Don't forget the debates.
I appreciate those stats but am wondering if you know what these successful challengers' polling numbers were before their respective bounces. If Reagan was at , say, 38% before his big bounce, that would suggest that fewer people were commited to Reagan before the convention; whereas more people now eem committed to Kerry before the convention, meaning that there were fewer undecideds to begin with and thus fewer points vailable for a bounce,
Again, I don't know Reagan or clinton's pre-convention polling numbers. But the abov scenario seems plausible to me. Do you happen to have this data?
You bet they will. My concern is the Democrats trying to suppress that vote, knowing that it will overwhelmingly be in favor of their Commander in Chief.
They did it in 2000, and in my mind there is no doubt they will attempt it again.
IF ANY VOTE IS WORTH ANYTHING, IT HAS TO BE THE VOTE OF A SOLDIER, AN AIRMAN, A MARINE.
God bless our brave Defenders
Ok then. Canadians are affecting us, and messing with our elections.
Protect your own boarders.
Americans - Boycott Canada. Buy American.
How's that? Feel better?
Good point. 1984 wasn't a rejection of leftist policies either -- and Mondale/Ferraro lost 49 states (and almost lost 50)!
I have a theory to explain the "Bush Naderites".
The Kerry campaign is openly hostile to the Naderites. They have been suing them left and right. Their basic premise is "you cost Al Gore the election - you are all scum and must be destroyed".
Is it possible that that is not an appealing message to the Naderites? It's like getting a horse head in your bed with a note attached: "Vote Kerry Or Else".
Everyone's assuming that the Naderites will break for Kerry because the Naderites in 2000 broke for Gore. But Gore WAS an environmenalist wacko. Kerry is just an empty suit.
Here in Arizona, the Naderites collected tens of thousands of signatures to get Ralph Nader on the ballot (mine included). These signatures were thrown out, not because they were invalid but because of questions about some of the people who gathered the signatures.
If I were a Naderite, I would be mad as hell about this. Tens of thousands of people said "put this man on the ballot" and handful of hack lawyers found an unelected judge to thwart the Will Of The People.
If I were a Naderite, I would vote for Bush as my protest against John Kerry and the heavy-handed tactics of the DNC.
I try not to watch MSNBC. :-)
That post #52 is too pickin' funny :o)
BTTT...I can't wait to show that to everyone at work on monday! LOL.
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