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Zogby: ZERO Bounce for Kerry
NewsMax ^ | 7-30-04

Posted on 07/30/2004 6:36:51 AM PDT by jmstein7

A Zogby poll taken while the four-day Democratic Convention was underway shows that the Kerry Edwards ticket has failed to add even a single percentage point to its support.

The poll of 1,001 likely voters conducted Monday through Thursday found that 48 percent support the Kerry Edwards ticket - the exact same number that backed the Massachusetts Democrat in a July 6-7 survey.

The only good news for the presidential hopeful came in the category of undecideds, which had grown to eight points in the latest survey, up from five points in the earlier sample. The latest Zogby numbers show Kerry Edwards leading Bush Cheney 48 to 43 percent. Support for Bush Cheney in the previous sample was 46 percent.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News
KEYWORDS: deadcatbounce; debkamax; dncconvention; kerry; kerrybounce; nobounce; polls; zogby
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To: Paradox

No, you're not a pessimist, but a realist.


41 posted on 07/30/2004 6:57:38 AM PDT by sissyjane (You're either with us or against us.)
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To: jmstein7

This is not good news for those Demoncrats.


42 posted on 07/30/2004 6:57:52 AM PDT by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: AmericanMade1776

"SAVE US FROM THE KING OF BOREDOM."

Insomniacs for Kerry! ;)


43 posted on 07/30/2004 6:57:56 AM PDT by proud American in Canada
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To: Baynative
And lastly his walking around the stage just showing off his Pearson

Is that legal?

44 posted on 07/30/2004 6:58:57 AM PDT by ItsTheMediaStupid
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To: All

Don't expect a big bounce from either convention. The bounce is usually due to the movement of undecideds. This year the pool of undecideds is relatively small so they wil have less of an impact on the polling numbers.


45 posted on 07/30/2004 7:01:06 AM PDT by BadAndy (Specializing in unnecessarily harsh comments.)
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To: TomServo

"If more people knew he served in 'Nam - it could turn things around for him."

After John O'Neil gets done with sKerry, the Poodle might wish he never brought up Vietnam.


46 posted on 07/30/2004 7:01:40 AM PDT by BillyCrockett
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To: BadAndy

We could be right back where we are started with Bush ahead about 2-3 points by the time September rolls around..


47 posted on 07/30/2004 7:04:57 AM PDT by gopwinsin04
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To: PianoMan

Wrong! I took the poll and it was reported as zero bounce. If you didn't take the electronic poll or weren't called by phone, you would not know the results.


48 posted on 07/30/2004 7:06:26 AM PDT by cousair
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To: Paradox

I agree with you. The sppech was good for Kerry and certainly good enough for his choir. Plus, the staging was excellent. I expect him to get a good boost; it's part of the game.


49 posted on 07/30/2004 7:06:30 AM PDT by twigs
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To: Paradox
How many swing voters were listening to the speech yesterday?

Do you know why we call them swing voters? Because they do not give a damn about politics and they only pay attention to the election until in the last three weeks of the campaign

The total number of people who watched the convention was very low and the super vast majority of them, 99%, where people who made up their mind.

Let us stop this crap about the swing voters…

50 posted on 07/30/2004 7:07:02 AM PDT by jveritas
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To: Astronaut

Zogby's big claim to fame was that he nailed it 96 and noone else was even close. Since then he has been slipping. And yes he is a lefty but it USUALLY doesn't affect his numbers.


51 posted on 07/30/2004 7:07:21 AM PDT by Sinner6 (Under capitalism life is hard, under communism life is death)
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To: jmstein7

We are all dumber for having heard him blather on for 55 minutes...........


52 posted on 07/30/2004 7:10:05 AM PDT by RushCrush (Republicans think every day is July 4. Democrats think every day is April 15- R. Reagan)
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To: cousair

When did you take the poll?


53 posted on 07/30/2004 7:12:19 AM PDT by Rokke
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To: Paradox

Those who believe in fairy/fanciful tales (AKA "the speech") will give kerry a temporary bounce. Reality will come back to some. I have turned very cynical with the poll takers (especially Zogby) after watching our country governed by so-called polls by our last president.


54 posted on 07/30/2004 7:14:07 AM PDT by daybreakcoming (We don't just live in America, America lives in US!)
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To: Paradox
Mark my words, there WILL be a significant bounce! I predict a 7 point bounce, who knows, maybe 10.

I tend to think there will be a bounce too. But just this morning I heard Susan "marlboro voice" Estrich say that J.effin.K might not see a post convention bounce , But then she quickly added he would definitely see a post debate bounce for sure. I dunno, but sounds like susan was hedging a bit on the likelihood of a bounce. Perhaps some of the dim faithful are concerned about the lack of bounce? Also , Susan took pretty strong exception to being introduced as a "democratic strategist" . They just should have announced her as a democrat shill, she would be mad at that too, but at least we would get a kick out of it.

CC

55 posted on 07/30/2004 7:14:09 AM PDT by Celtic Conservative ("Let’s not forget: The Clintons’ marriage is a dynastic marriage of ambitious swine.”)
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To: PianoMan
I agree with your assessment about NewsMax. I've seen them spin headlines like a Maytag dryer many times. However, this time they got it half right. So far, no gain for Kerry, but there is some slippage for Bush/Cheney.

Below is from Zogby.com

 While Democrats Rally in Boston,
Kerry-Edwards Leads By Five Points Over
Bush-Cheney (48%-43%), New Zogby America Poll Reveals

 

While the Democratic Party rallies in Boston at the Democratic National Convention, the presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards holds a five point lead over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney (48%-43%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1001 likely voters was conducted from Monday through Thursday (July 26-29, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.2.

Presidential Ticket  %

July27-29

July 6-7

Kerry-Edwards

48

48

Bush-Cheney

43

46

Undecided

8

5

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1001 likely voters chosen at random nationwide.  All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Monday, July 26 through Thursday, July 29. The margin of error is +/3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

56 posted on 07/30/2004 7:15:16 AM PDT by Cagey
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To: Cagey
Kerry winning in the South...... Look out it's all over..... Hell is about to freeze.



.

Zogby America Poll. July 26-29, 2004. N=1,001 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2 (total sample).

                 

General Election Trial Heats:

                 
    Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Other
(vol.)
Unsure      
    % % % %      
  ALL 43 48 2 8      
    Men 46 47 2 6      
    Women 40 49 2 9      
    East 33 55 - 12      
    South 46 48 1 5      
    Midwest 48 43 2 7      
    West 42 49 3 7      
                 
  Trend:
  7/6-7/04 46 48 2 5      
                 
    Bush Kerry Nader Badnarik Peroutka Other (vol.) Unsure
    % % % % % % %
  7/26-29/04 41 46 3 - 1 1 8
  7/6-7/04 44 47 2 1 - 1 5
                 

"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new?" Trend includes slight variations in wording.

                 
    Deserves
Reelection
Someone
New
Unsure        
    % % %        
  7/26-29/04 42 51 7        
  7/6-7/04 43 53 4

57 posted on 07/30/2004 7:22:42 AM PDT by deport (Please Flush the Johns......)
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Comment #58 Removed by Moderator

To: Cagey
Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population.

Seems odd that they add weight for region and party in a poll. Who did they poll? If this was in Taxachusettes, what did they expect?

59 posted on 07/30/2004 7:24:18 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (The RAT ticket got a lead balloon bounce from their convention. I want more f***ing balloons.)
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To: Non-Sequitur

Someone posted that here - CNN led
pretty big with Convention viewers
and all agreed that was expected.

B/c Dems watch CNN, and that's the
main demographic watching this.

Most FReepers watched on C-SPAN,
then channel-hopped to get pundits
afterward. That isn't measured by
the ratings you mentioned.


60 posted on 07/30/2004 7:25:15 AM PDT by txrangerette
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