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Zogby: ZERO Bounce for Kerry
NewsMax ^ | 7-30-04

Posted on 07/30/2004 6:36:51 AM PDT by jmstein7

A Zogby poll taken while the four-day Democratic Convention was underway shows that the Kerry Edwards ticket has failed to add even a single percentage point to its support.

The poll of 1,001 likely voters conducted Monday through Thursday found that 48 percent support the Kerry Edwards ticket - the exact same number that backed the Massachusetts Democrat in a July 6-7 survey.

The only good news for the presidential hopeful came in the category of undecideds, which had grown to eight points in the latest survey, up from five points in the earlier sample. The latest Zogby numbers show Kerry Edwards leading Bush Cheney 48 to 43 percent. Support for Bush Cheney in the previous sample was 46 percent.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News
KEYWORDS: deadcatbounce; debkamax; dncconvention; kerry; kerrybounce; nobounce; polls; zogby
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To: Baynative

It didn't even play in Martha's Vineyard. They are dedicated Clintonians there.

Kerry talks about uniting the nation. He can't even unite the Party. There are two definite wings to the Dem Party--the Kerry/Ted Kennedy, and the Bill/Hillary Clinton.

And they hate each other's guts.


101 posted on 07/30/2004 9:31:59 AM PDT by Palladin (Proud to be a FReeper!)
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To: Non-Sequitur

"I wonder about that. I think that this time the electorate is so strongly polarized to one side or the other by now that the undecided pool to get a bounce from is small compared to past elections."

Maybe, we won't know for sure til November. What I think has to be of primary concern is there isn't ANY movement in the overnight polling data.

Given the huge amounts of cash spent, and the four nights of coverage, I think no movement at all was inconceivable to any political operative.

If his keynote address bored everybody to the point nobody cared....that would explain no movement in the polls.

"Cahill's Gambit" is what I'm calling it for now, in honor of Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's Campaign manager.

It will either be used in the future as a punchline, or as a viable strategy.

I suspect punchline is far more likely.


102 posted on 07/30/2004 9:43:42 AM PDT by Badeye ("If you Don't Vote, YOU are the PROBLEM")
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To: Lunatic Fringe
DEAD CAT BOUNCE!


103 posted on 07/30/2004 9:49:22 AM PDT by Not A Snowbird (Official RKBA Landscaper and Arborist, Duchess of Green Leafy Things)
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To: Badeye
Given the huge amounts of cash spent, and the four nights of coverage, I think no movement at all was inconceivable to any political operative.

On the other hand, after $85 million spent on opposition adds the GOP is still, at best, neck-and-neck with Kerry. Their best effort to define the man and it was a flop. I don't think anyone expected that to result in no movement.

I don't know, this time around. This is a strange one. I talk to people and I can't believe how strong opinions are. I literally do not know a single undecided. Everyone I know is either pro-President or else want him out so bad that they can taste it. Not even Reagan's reelection comes close to it in terms of vehemence, and people talk about the throw-the-bum-out Democrats from that one. And people keep saying that the anybody-but-Bush people are weak support for Kerry but I disagree. When you don't care who you vote for so long as you vote out Bush then there is nothing Kerry could possibly to to change their vote away from him. So I don't think that there will be a bump from the DNC or the RNC. I don't know if the few remaining swing voters out there will be converted to either side, or if they'll just stay home come November. This election is definitely one for the books.

104 posted on 07/30/2004 10:14:13 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur (Jefferson Davis - the first 'selected, not elected' president.)
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To: Non-Sequitur

"On the other hand, after $85 million spent on opposition adds the GOP is still, at best, neck-and-neck with Kerry. Their best effort to define the man and it was a flop. I don't think anyone expected that to result in no movement."

I think you miss what that 85 million actually bought.

That "defining" of Kerry as a liberal was so effective the Senator couldn't mention his 19 years in office at that level. Kerry couldn't say anything about Gun Control, couldn't say anything about Welfare Reform, couldn't say anything about Taxes. It was so effective, the entire liberal rants and raves were cut from the convention, with the exception of Al Sharpton, who nobody takes seriously.

I know what you mean about people having made up their minds already. Here in southern Ohio, its Bush country 100%. Up around Cleveland, it clearly isn't. Center of the state reflects its location between the two points.

Where we differ is I don't believe enough people will go out of their way to vote come November for a man, Kerry, that they don't strongly believe in. I suspect the Democrats are going to be stunned by the low turnout, in much the same way Dean was stunned by the low turn out of the Deaniacs during the primaries. Remember, the Dem primary in Iowa was going to be dominated by those cute orange hats of the Deaniacs.

Thats the "core" of the support to replace Bush. To date, they have not showed up at any polling booth in the primaries, which is how Kerry got the nomination.

The internet is a great tool, but the Dean campaign shows just how illusory "posted support" can be when required to go beyond the virtual world we inhabit here at FR, or over at DU.

Either way, both of us will be watching this play out with great interest.


105 posted on 07/30/2004 10:27:36 AM PDT by Badeye ("If you Don't Vote, YOU are the PROBLEM")
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To: wagglebee

bttt


106 posted on 07/30/2004 10:34:11 AM PDT by ConservativeMan55 (http://www.osurepublicans.com)
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To: jmstein7; Howlin; Liz; ALOHA RONNIE; RonDog; Mudboy Slim
...the Kerry Edwards ticket has failed to add even a single percentage point to its support.

Nothing for the Breck girl - nothing from a week long convention. Just wait until folks actually get to know them!

107 posted on 07/30/2004 3:02:24 PM PDT by Libloather (What did Bergler stow - and when did he stow it?)
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To: jmstein7

I get polled by zogby about once a week, via an online form. Kinda cool.


108 posted on 07/30/2004 3:05:03 PM PDT by HitmanLV (I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants

French poodles bounce. In 1991 when Clinton was elected I kicked one over a hedge and he bounced several times.


109 posted on 07/30/2004 3:20:49 PM PDT by 12chachacha
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To: jmstein7
LOLOL! I heard Judy Woodruff stammering this morning about "sometimes the bump takes a little while to kick it..."

And sometimes, Judith, the bump NEVER SHOWS UP!

After watching the convention as dispassionately as possible, our son observed that if Kerry wins this election, it was rigged from the start.

110 posted on 07/30/2004 3:51:43 PM PDT by Dr. Eckleburg
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To: TomServo

"If more people knew he served in 'Nam - it could turn things around for him."

I don't know if you know this, but he got 3 purple stars. That's almost one per months of service (/sarcasm).


111 posted on 07/30/2004 4:01:17 PM PDT by cowtowney
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To: jmstein7
Well as I was saying to my cat late last night, I just see no bounce for Kerry at all here. Kerry has the anti-Bush vote locked up and had it locked up long ago. People who are for Kerry are for him not because of him but because he is not George Bush.

Bush on the other hand has the chance to win back a lot of votes with a strong campaign and a clear message at next month's convention.

Thus I see a "bounce" for George Bush during the next 6-10 weeks. By the time of the debates, I expect Bush to be close to a 10 point lead in these much-ballyhooed daily tracking polls.

If Bush is able to make mincemeat of Kerry at the debates, Bush might beat Kerry by even a wider margin than the one that his father beat Mike Dukakis by.

112 posted on 07/30/2004 4:08:30 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I never had the makings of a varsity athlete)
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To: jmstein7

**the Kerry Edwards ticket has failed to add even a single percentage point to its support.**

I predict that they will be down by four or five points next week.


113 posted on 07/30/2004 4:10:54 PM PDT by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: SamAdams76

yes...but we must remain earnest in pursuit of our victory.


114 posted on 07/30/2004 4:12:12 PM PDT by wardaddy
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To: gopwinsin04
This is stunning news if it holds. Clinton had something like an 18 point bounce in 1992..

I think Gore had even a bigger bounce in 2000. A huge bounce. If I'm not mistaken, Bush went from 17 points up to 10 points down in about a week. That's a 27 point bounce! And remember that the RNC convention was held first that year so some of us thought Bush was toast.

I remember Rush practically having a heart attack over this and many of us here were in shock as those post-DNC polls came out.

115 posted on 07/30/2004 4:21:42 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I never had the makings of a varsity athlete)
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To: gopwinsin04
This is stunning news if it holds. Clinton had something like an 18 point bounce in 1992..

I think Gore had even a bigger bounce in 2000. A huge bounce. If I'm not mistaken, Bush went from 17 points up to 10 points down in about a week. That's a 27 point bounce! And remember that the RNC convention was held first that year so some of us thought Bush was toast.

I remember Rush practically having a heart attack over this and many of us here were in shock as those post-DNC polls came out.

116 posted on 07/30/2004 4:21:42 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (I never had the makings of a varsity athlete)
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To: jmstein7

As I have said before...Zogby skews stuff pretty favorable for dems.

So I never worry when they say things like..."Kerry leads in the South". If you look at their internal data.....a lot of times it does not add up. And their sample is always in an area the gets them what they want.


117 posted on 07/30/2004 4:28:28 PM PDT by ArmyBratproud
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118 posted on 07/30/2004 4:29:36 PM PDT by Rebelbase (H.W.O.V. (How Would Osama Vote?))
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To: jmstein7

Did anyone else find it a little "weird" tat Kerry took a movie camera with him to VietNam???? Also, we have a disconnect here, unless I missed something during Steven Speilberg's ad naseum video tribute. The narrator said: In 1966 he volunteered to go to VietNam to serve his country. If he came back in 1971 to start his anti war antics with Jane Fonda, and only served 14 weeks in VietNam due to "wounds" from paper cuts, what did he do the rest of the time???

Also mysteriously missing was his great accomplishments in the U.S. Senate.

This jerk REALLY is the Manchurian Candidate!!! Be afraid. Be VERY afraid!!


119 posted on 07/30/2004 4:51:08 PM PDT by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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To: Lunatic Fringe

Acually, the Zogby polls appear to show a bounce. The Newsmax article describes the Zogby results in a deliberately confusing manner. Before, Zogby reported a 48/46 split. Now, Zogby reports a 48/43 split, with more undecided. By my book, that is a move from up 2 percentage points to up 5. Not much of a bounce, but a bounce. It's true that Zogby reports Kerry's percentage has stayed constant, but it's the difference between the 2 candidates' numbers that counts. I am quite convinced that Zogby is an unreliable, pro-Democrat pollster, but it doesn't help our cause to distort or "spin" Zogby's results.


120 posted on 07/30/2004 6:13:18 PM PDT by maro
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