2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, July 26, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	96.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	60.0	6	0
California	10.0	0	55
Colorado	78.0	9	0
Connecticut	6.0	0	7
Delaware	14.7	0	3
District of Columbia	0.9	0	3
Florida	51.0	27	0
Georgia	93.0	15	0
Hawaii	5.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	9.0	0	21
Indiana	93.0	11	0
Iowa	36.0	0	7
Kansas	94.0	6	0
Kentucky	91.0	8	0
Louisiana	81.0	9	0
Maine	25.0	0	4
Maryland	12.0	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	35.0	0	17
Minnesota	25.0	0	10
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	57.2	11	0
Montana	93.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	51.0	5	0
New Hampshire	41.0	0	4
New Jersey	13.5	0	15
New Mexico	40.0	0	5
New York	6.5	0	31
North Carolina	76.3	15	0
North Dakota	96.0	3	0
Ohio	53.0	20	0
Oklahoma	96.0	7	0
Oregon	38.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	37.0	0	21
Rhode Island	4.5	0	4
South Carolina	92.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	80.0	11	0
Texas	97.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	5.0	0	3
Virginia	80.0	13	0
Washington	22.0	0	11
West Virginia	61.0	5	0
Wisconsin	41.9	0	10
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		274	264

[Wallaby]

If the traders' probabilities are correct, then the probability of a Bush win is 43.5% His expected value of electoral votes is 265.7 (with a standard deviation of 35.0).

[Legion04]

the only difference is, after the debates, Bush's projected winnings will be 300+

[jdege]

Date	Prob. Bush Win	Mean EVs	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8
05/17	65.2%	284.8	36.6
05/24	60.0%	280.3	36.9
05/31	61.1%	281.2	36.8
06/07	60.5%	280.6	36.5
06/14	65.0%	285.0	36.6
06/21	63.9%	284.0	36.8
06/28	58.4%	278.8	36.7
07/05	58.7%	279.1	36.7
07/12	53.1%	274.2	36.5
07/19	48.2%	269.8	35.7
07/26	43.4%	265.6	35.0

[ride the whirlwind]

Thanks for the info.

[LS]

Interesting that they stubbornly keep putting Wisconsin as Kerry, when in the latest polls Bush is up.

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks jdege!

[LS]

Interesting that they stubbornly keep putting Wisconsin as Kerry, when in the latest polls Bush is up.

[LS]

Most recent poll shows Bush up in every one of those states, plus Wisconsin and Iowa, which he did NOT carry in 2000.

[LS]

"there are no Kerry states this"

No, you're way off here: Bush, depending on the poll, is within 2-3 in Michigan and Pennsylvania; LEADS in most polls in Wisconsin; LEADS in a new poll in Iowa (and barely trails in a second); and has a 5-point gap in FL according to one recent poll. Moreover, Bush was VERY close in the last Oregon poll.

Overally, Kerry has to find some way to hold MI, PA, MN, IO, WI, NM, OR, and NJ and still be able to take OH (ain't gonna happen) and FL (ditto).

[dormee]

Most definitely. NC rarely ever votes Democrat for president. Besides, we LOATHE Edwards. He hasn't done a thing for our state except to rob doctors of their money and caused insurance premiums to go through the roof.

[Reeses]

From www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_WTA.html

The IEM 2004 US Presidential Winner Takes All Market is a real-money futures market where contract payoffs will be determined by the popular vote cast in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election. Please see the market prospectus for specific details of this market.

Kerry will probably win the popular vote. It's the electoral college where he is losing to Bush. I think we keep seeing these 50/50 elections now because of advances in marketing technology. Candidates modify their message until they are in play.

[Darth Reagan]

Oddly, Bush leads the vote-share market.

[Reader of news]

The map is like last week. It'll be interesting to see it next week. We'll able to see if Kerry will have increased his poll numbers after the rat convention.

[bluefish]

Do you think the the Popular Vote is closer to the 50/50 stuff we keep seeing, while the liklihood of Bush winning electoral votes is much higher? Even if the case, I'd like to see Bush win the popular vote by a large margin to shut the stupid Dems up. I think they forgot to attend their Civics classes.

[ride the whirlwind]

Maybe this will help in Nevada:

Nevada Small Business Owners Celebrate President Bush's Pro-Growth Policies

A fervent crowd gathered at the Sierra Nevada Construction Company in Sparks, NV to hear from Governor Guinn and small business leaders from across the state about the President’s pro-growth policies that are creating Nevada jobs. Here in Nevada, economic optimism is everywhere -- with 50,900 new jobs over the last year, about 5% more than twelve months ago, and unemployment down from 5.5 percent to 4.2 percent in the same time. Governor Guinn said that these results are no accident -- they're the rest of the President's pro-growth, pro-small business policies. And small business owners here in Nevada understand full well that John Kerry's tax increases and pro-trial lawyer agenda would be devastating to small business.

Others attending were former US Representative Barbara Vucanovich and President of Associated General Contractors Roy Walker. Vucanovich who also touted the success the Bush tax cuts and the need to make them permanent. The event was a huge success, proving once again that Nevada is Bush Country!

Brooke Buchanan and Ross Mellor Nevada for Bush-Cheney '04

[Tall_Texan]

I was commenting only on the results posted here. I'm well aware that there are other polls that show differently. The validity of any methodology, including this one, is only useful if it accurately reflects the outcome. My comment was to show that the bottom line (Bush 274-264) is even shakier than that figure would appear if you accept the premise of their projections.

As stated before, we are nearing the ebb tide in Bush's poll numbers and should see him begin to rebound after the DNC convention although he may not take command until after September.

[longtermmemmory]

I think the left is skewing now for 1. ratings and 2. campaign donations.

They need a tight race or nobody will watch the news.

They need a tight race or nobody will donate money.

[Momaw Nadon]

How did we go from 96.8% to 43.4%?

I don't understand.

Hopefully, next week will be better.

[longtermmemmory]

I would not say he would loose the vote. The Cubans I have spoken to are for putting more strain on Castro. the loosening of restrictions was done by clinton to help the cuban ecconomy/castro.

Many of the non family who took advantage of the looser restrictions were just university professors who were on a "educational" trip collecting information to come back and speak against the US embargo.


This election is going to be decided by NEW voters.

[Meldrim]

New Hampshire won't support Kerry, Maine may not either..at least the electoral vote in the North---CD 2. Educate the folks in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania about the Kerry/Edwards Boy Scout vote and those states will soon be light blue.