Posted on 07/26/2004 7:08:56 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 94.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 75.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 60.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 10.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 78.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 6.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 14.7 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 51.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 5.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 9.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 93.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 36.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 91.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 81.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 25.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 12.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 35.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 25.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 57.2 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 51.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 41.0 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 13.5 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 40.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 6.5 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 76.3 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 53.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 96.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 38.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 37.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.5 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 92.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 80.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 97.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 5.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 80.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 22.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 61.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 41.9 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 274 | 264 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 274 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 264 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 265.68 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
so it all comes down to ohio, missouri, florida and nevada. if we lose any of those, it's over.
this is not going to be easy.
Easy now.
I think Bush has better that a 13% chance of winning New Jersey. Better that a 40% chance of winning Wisconsin or New Mexico. and better than a 35% chance of winning PA.
It looks like people are betting on the outcome of the 2000 election, not 2004.
This is what counts. Not the ridiculous daily sampling of biased polls conducted of a 100 people here and there.
sure. i noticed those also. those are the places where we go on offense (ie, we might win them but don't have to have them). at least wisconsin and PA, i don't know about new jersey....
the flip side of this is that the dems have the same problem...if they drop the ball on any state they should lock up, we win. such is the stakes of the game when the parties are at rough parity.
looks like we are going to take the home state of the D VP nominee again, then?
Until about 15 October, even the best polls are suspect. After that, the lefties will be doing all they can to really skew opinions, so we will have to pick and choose. The more outrageous the lefties become, the better we are doing...
Nevada and Florida are both sitting at 51%. Was Nevada real close in 2000?
The graph shown is for the popular vote, not the winner of the electoral college. Gore won the popular vote in 2000 and this was accurately predicted by the Iowa Electronic Market.
This is scarier than it looks if you factor in how close Florida, Ohio and Nevada are. tere are no Kerry states this close.
But we are approaching the low water mark and I think the tide will turn shortly.
Bush can win michigan if the christians come out to vote and if Kerry can't enthuse the inner city black males. See Engler.
They're mad at the nuclear dumping decision.
Bush will lose a lot of the Cuban exile vote in Florida too, because of his absurd new restrictions.
Are you sure about that? They have a "U.S. Vote Share" and a "Winner Takes All." I never did know if IEM was for an actual win, or for a simple popular vote. Seems like kind of a silly market if just vote share. After all, shouldn't the futures be traded on the actual outcome (Dem or Rep)? That is the point of the Congressional futures.
I do recall the final pricing for 2000 having the Dems win, so it did look like a popular vote thing. I didn't know when they cut off trading either and with the results delayed, the whole thing seemed simply screwed up to me.
Thanks, much appreciated.
George W. Bush -------- 301,575 ---- 49.52%
Albert Gore Jr. ---------- 279,978 ---- 45.98%
Ralph Nader -------------- 15,008 ----- 2.46%
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