The evolution continues. Included are some of my own opinions. Improvement suggestions are welcome. Please let me know if you want to be pinged when this is posted. I’ve tried to be inclusive as possible but I may have missed some, please forgive.
Summary 7/29/04 - Current Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
1. Attack threat windows - Many dates have been put forth here on TM based upon Islamic / Jihadist ‘special days’, numerology and rumor. Fortunately these dates have proven to be false (although some evaluation of the relation of 911 to 311 is useful). Therefore we may need to review and look for other indicators of impending attack such as changes in communications / chatter levels, etc. The best understanding I have is that the next round of attacks will be sequential with Italy being hit first, then England and the US. If this threatened pattern appears, then we could look more closely at the activity at the time to try to narrow the attack window further.
International
Italy. - Terrorist group Brigades of Abu Haf al-Masri has issued a third threat (7/28/04) against all of Europe and specifically Italy since the end of the so-called ‘truce’. Rome has been specifically mentioned in other threats. Previous threats issued July 2, 16, 26. Additional threat from Tawhid on July 25th threatens Australia and reiterates al Masri threat to Italy (thanks Vel). In the face of these numerous threats, if something doesn’t happen soon, then al-Masri and AQ risks losing face. Some U.S. officials and some terrorism experts believe Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, lacks credibility and has only tenuous ties to al-Qaida. It has issued claims for events in which it almost certainly had no involvement, including blackouts in North America and Britain.
England - nothing new to report
Japan – nothing new to report
Australia – No new threats issued today.
Turkey – On 28 July 2004, news services reported that airport security went to level ‘yellow’ second highest based upon threat that AQ would launch a 911 style attack or blow-up an airliner.
Iran – (7/28/04) Reuters and Israeli news agencies reporting that Iran is trying to purchase key components for the nuclear weapons program from Russia. Israel is rumored to be sharpening its talons for a preemptive strike. Iran is threatening total destruction of Israel if they attack. What is unknown is what degree of cooperation the US will provide. Key indicator to watch are deployments of additional carriers to the ME region to back up US forces quickly if Israel strikes independently. US ground forces are insufficient to maintain Iraq security and attack into Iran. Any US strike into Iran likely to be via aircraft, special ops and cruise missiles.
Syria – Information suggests that they are supplying terrorists with rocket components to attack Israeli targets from S. Lebanon.
Israel - Moslems warn all out war if the Dome of the Rock or the Al-Aksa Mosque, located on the Temple Mount are damaged or destroyed.
United States
U.S. - Jihadist ‘chatter’ has been on-going for many months about the impending death strike to America. The first significant opportunity is the Democrat convention in Boston. For AQ, there would be many pros and cons to such a strike.
Pros - Heavy news coverage Concentration of political power in small area Potential to influence national election
Cons - Heavy security, higher risk of detection May cause support for the President and not Kerry (who is viewed to be more sympathetic/softer).
AQ has shown savvy towards timing an attack to influence the electorate as shown in the Madrid bombings. However I think they misjudged American response to 911 and are leery to strike at a sympathetic party. Homeland security seems to think it will be ‘soon’, some ‘unnamed’ sources to the media expect an attempt prior to the national elections in November.
2. Attack method.
A. Jihadist chatter suggests something big and devastating to hit US. This has been a common theme. There has been significant discourse on whether AQ has small nukes or the capability to deploy them. No significant proof has been provided to prove they possess them.
B. Discussion in TM, internet and from national news sources indicate continued AQ interest in aircraft hijacking. Thoughts range from using far more people to putting together a ‘weapon’ of some sort in a toilet. This weapon could be an explosive device or a chemical of some sort. Another aspect is having more terrorists on the plane to help keep the passengers subdued if they can take over the craft. One piece of the puzzle missing is how the terrorists would get past the reinforced doors to the cockpit.
C. Personnel - A more disturbing development are reports of considerable numbers of arabs crossing the US - Mexican border. This could be why the US Border Patrol is increasing its attention to the southern border. Southern Arizona has been considered by some to be a terrorist haven area. More people would permit more car/truck suicide bomb attacks that if dozens were to occur simultaneously, would cause substantial panic, as well as sustained attacks. The US Moslem community is absent martyr complex that is prevalent with the Middle East jihadists, thus people will to commit suicide bombings have to be ‘imported’. With the exception of 911, the car bomb has continued to be the weapon of choice, needing only willing martyrs and the careful accumulation of explosive material (fertilizer, etc).
(7/28/04) A South African woman, Farida Goolam Mohamed Ahmed, was picked up in Texas at McAllen Miller International Airport on July 19. She had illegally entered the US via Mexico and is suspected of being associated with Al-Qada.
(7/28/04) The American Muslim Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development charity and seven of its officers were charged Tuesday with providing millions of dollars in support to Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist organization blamed for dozens of suicide bomber attacks in Israel.
(7/28/04) Michael Wagner, 44, of San Diego, was arrested this week and said he had knowledge of terrorist activities and people and groups tied to al-Qaida and the Taliban. Wagner also said that he knew about things in the Muslim communities in San Diego that would interest federal authorities. IMHO this guy is a thug wannabe using the terrorist angle to try to get off easier.
(7/29/04) The FBI and Orlando Police have confirmed 3 Middle Eastern men were detained last week trying to board a flight at Orlando International Airport. As they were checking in for a flight to Oman at the ticket counter the name of one of the men appeared on a computerized "do-not-fly" list compiled by the Transportation Security Administration. All 3 men were placed into the custody of a federal agent.
4. Significant meetings canceled:
A. OPEC’s meeting in Vienna Austria has been canceled, unprecedented.
5. Security has been heightened in specific cities - Boston, NYC, Philly, Seattle, LA, DC. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Some of this is in response to the upcoming democrat and republican conventions.
Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary. However, this appears to be in part in line with scheduled increased security posture and not necessarily in response to a specific threat.
6. Military operations. The fleet is deployed conducting various maneuvers and exercises.
The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
The first national ABM missiles are being installed in Alaska.
(7/29/04) Elements of the 2nd Infantry division stationed in Korea are deploying to Iraq as scheduled.
(7/29/04) The first successful test of the Israeli Arrow anti-missile system was successfully conducted over the Pacific Ocean from Vandenberg AFB.
7. Dept of Homeland Scty. (7/29/04) The FBI warned police in California and New Mexico that it received information about possible terrorist activity in their states. However, the warning wasn't specific about particular targets or a method of attack, a federal law enforcement official said Thursday. The FBI decided to pass along the threat information but warned that it was considered unsubstantiated and uncorroborated, said the official, who spoke only on condition of anonymity.
8. Domestic Terror Currently Not Linked to Jihadists
a. (7/28/04) Trace amounts of the deadly poison ricin have been found in two jars of baby food that had been tampered with from S. California, the FBI said Wednesday . IMO this is likely a generic criminal act as some reports indicate that specific police officers were named on the notes found in the bottles.
