Posted on 07/23/2004 9:15:08 PM PDT by ckilmer
EXO WORLDS
First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak
Will the 20s see ET roar onto center stage Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004 If Intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their transmissions within two decades. That's the bold prediction from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California. Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in computing power.
Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals.
For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and 1 million radio transmitters in the galaxy.
To find them will involve observing and inspecting radio emissions from most of the galaxy's 100 billion stars. The time necessary for this formidable task can be estimated from the capabilities of planned radio telescopes- such as SETI's 1-hectare Allen Telescope Array and the internationally run Square Kilometre Array- and expected increases in the power of the microchips that sift through radio signals from space.
Shostak assumed that computer processing power will continue to double every 18 months until 2015- as it has done for the past 40 years. From then on, he assumes a more conservative doubling time of 36 months as transistors get too small to scale down as easily as they have till now.
Within a generation, radio emissions from enough stars will be observed and analysed to find the first alien civilisation, Shostak estimates. But because they will probably be between 200 and 1000 light years away, sending a radio message back will take centuries.
Paul Shuch, executive director of the SETI League, a separate organisation in New Jersey, says Shostak's prediction ignores one important factor. "It is altogether reasonable to project the development of human technology, based upon past trends and planned investments," he says.
"But predicting the date, the decade or even the century of contact is another matter because the 'other end' of the communications link is completely out of our hands. It would be nice to think we know something about the existence, distribution, technology and motivation of our potential communications partners in space, but in fact, we don't."
Shostak admits that there are myriad uncertainties surrounding his prediction, but he defends the basis on which he made it. "I have made this prediction using the assumptions adopted by the SETI research community itself."
Okay, I downloaded the program, it's running and sent them my email address. I didn't see a password I can use to "join" the freepers. Do they send that to me?
Yup - just wait for your SETI password and your set to go. The password is only so that if you need to change you account info, you can.
Doesn't this guy know that Eisenhower met with space aliens back in the 50's, and they gave us the technology for the transistor, gravity propulsion systems, and velcro? Seesh!
Hardly welcoming
This serious-looking equation gave SETI an serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses-just so we're clear-are merely expressions of prejudice.
It's been awhile since I've done this. ;-)
I didn't see anywhere it asked for me to put in a password. It asked for my email and if I wanted it posted next to my screen name and the zip code where I lived.
I'll delete it and reload if I have to.
OK then, wait for SETI to send you a password. I can't remember, it's been so long now...
ROFLOL
It's too bad Roy and Pris won't live--but then again, who does?
We could do endless permutations and combinations of what ifs. Individual people can adjust to seismic shifts of percept, societies are destroyed.
Again, complete ignorance. I will not bother to itemize all the errors in this post.
However. Ever wonder why the galaxy is flat like a pancake? The solar system is flat for the very same reason.
[BTW, Pluto does not orbit in the plane of the ecliptic.]
When a structure forms--like the galaxy or the solar system, the total motions of all the accreting stuff has a net angular momentum vector. Bodies moving with a different angular momentum vector are preferentially ejected from the forming system, leaving--eventually--only bodies with the same vector as the ensemble of the original cloud or mass. These bodies orbit in a plane precisely normal to that vector. End of story.
--Boris
It is very simple: if time travel into the past were possible, you would be deposited in deep space--where the Earth is now--but where it wasn't then.
So that is not a valid objection to pure time travel. If you expected to land in your own house ten years ago, the inventor of the time machine will tell you that your expectations were unrealistic.
However, don't worry: time travel into the past is impossible for many other (valid) reasons.
--Boris
That's all true, but irrelevant to the discussion of the speed of Gravity.
The planets in our Solar System do not orbit around the point where the Sun was located 8, 30, 90, 120, or 1200 minutes ago. Instead, they rotate around the point where the Sun is located at this very moment.
That is very different from what we see. Because it takes light 8.3 minutes to travel from the Sun to the Earth, we here on Earth see the Sun in its position from 8.3 minutes ago.
What one thing can explain why our planets' orbits are around a point different from where we see the Sun?
Could it be that Light and Gravity propogate at different speeds?
5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires
The Fermi Paradox rules.
Codswallop. There is no paradox at all. The Fermi Paradox is nonsense.
Somehow, I figured I'd be hearing from you, just not this quickly.
Just popped in and saw the end of the thread.
You already know my arguments agaist this, but I will be glad to repost them again if you would like.
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