Posted on 07/20/2004 6:57:09 AM PDT by truthandlife
Two weeks ago, both Democratic and GOP strategists were talking about the coming Kerry poll bounce. The bounce would have two stages: the VP nominee selection, and then the Democratic convention. The GOP, trying to highball the number, estimated that Kerry would take a 15 point lead by the beginning of August. The Democrats more modestly estimated an 8 to 12% bounce. Well, the first bounce, the Edwards selection bounce, has come and gone. And President Bush has not only recovered from it, but has retaken the lead.
The Rasmusen daily tracking poll records voter preferences from 500 voters every night. The survey has recorded remarkable stability in the relative standing between the two nominees since Kerry wrapped up the nomination on March 2nd. Both candidates have, with very few exceptions, stayed within 3 points of the 45% support level, and neither candidate has opened up a bigger lead than 4%. Right after the Edwards pick, and over the course of a few days, Kerry built up his first 4 point lead, and maintained a 3 to 4 point edge over six days, the longest stretch for either candidate to maintain a lead that large. In the last four days, that lift the Kerry ticket received from the Edwards pick has disappeared. President Bush has been picking up strength every day, and now leads by 2%.
We are 15 weeks from the election, both conventions are yet to be held, there are 4 presidential and vice-presidential debates that will occur, and any number of national and international events might have a substantial impact on the election. But the poll results indicate what I think is an obvious set of conclusions.
Kerry received his poll bounce when the media was saturated with feel-good stories about the new ticket, and Edwardss smiling face and lovely family were everywhere to be seen. Even some reporters who had gotten used to Kerrys soporific speaking style, remarked on the new energy he showed in Edwardss presence. But then suddenly Edwards was sent-off on his own, and Kerry resumed control of center stage, the more visible member of the Democratic ticket.
For several months, Kerry had been almost a non-factor in the campaign. Some pundits suggested he had been hidden from view. The ups and downs recorded by Rasmusen and other pollsters reflected primarily changes in support for President Bush, reflecting bad news -- high casualties in Iraq in April, and Abu Ghraib in May -- or good news -- better economic numbers announced in June, and the early turnover of sovereignty in Iraq. But with the election and convention drawing closer, Kerry can no longer be hidden by his handlers. And with the exception of the two final nights of the Democratic convention, and the Vice Presidential debate, Edwards will be off the front page, and more importantly, not playing smiling sidekick to the stone faced Kerry.
In Edwardss absence, the Kerry sleep walk appears worse than ever. In a speech on intelligence failures last week, Kerry seemed drugged. It was as wooden a performance as I have ever seen by a major candidate for President. It made one long for even the charisma of Florida Senator Bob Graham. It is very difficult to see how Kerry can personally connect with swing voters.
But more voters are now paying attention to the campaign. Newspapers and TV news shows are devoting a higher percentage of their space and time to the campaign. As a result, the election is no longer all about Bush. Many Americans, who have not yet been much engaged in the race, will now have to decide whether to stick with the guy they know, and his flaws, or switch horses in the midst of a war.
Iraq is an unfinished story, of course, and the Kerry and Edwards now face questions on Iraq and the war on terror, and their answers are subject to close scrutiny. So far, the answers from both candidates have been very weak. The Kerry approach seems to be that in the future we need to keep the French and Germans happier, and work more with the UN. This is neither a winning nor an intelligent message. Edwards is beginning to be hammered on the inconsistency of his gung-ho approach to Iraq back before the primaries, and his much softer pose now. Like any good trial lawyer, he is trying to find connections in the record that do not exist.
The Democrats have many advantages going forward. They have a very large, motivated Bush-hating base. While the angry face of the activists also creates some problems for Kerry, the activists have provided Kerry with a funding and manpower edge. To date, there have been more pro-Kerry or anti-Bush ads run in the battleground states than Bush ads. The 527 support groups may not be legally allowed to coordinate their efforts with the Kerry campaign, but they have already spent over $50 million on ads, and registration and organization efforts in the very same states where the Kerry team is making its effort.
Then throw in the Michael More movie, Fahrenheit 9/11. With a box office gross now over $90 million, upwards of 10 million people have already seen the film, and perhaps 15 million will see it by Election Day. Even if only 10-20% of the viewers are Republicans or undecided voters (as suggested by a survey taken on the movies opening weekend), if a few percent of these viewers change their allegiance as a result of this propaganda piece, it could be costly to the Presidents re-election effort. Regrettably only a few thousand people will probably read the lengthy listing of the films deceits and outright lies prepared by David Kopel.
And finally, there are the traditional, and supposedly neutral media: national evening news shows, newspapers, and news weeklies. These opinion makers all seem to have a stake in getting Kerry elected as well, regardless of their honesty about it .
Bush will have to work hard to win. He will need to do well in the debates, and have some favorable news developments to support him, most importantly an improving economy and job numbers. But Kerry may be his secret weapon.
bttt
Right on the nose.
Strangely enough, after reading Richard Prebble's take everything I'm reading here seems quite optimistic by comparison. (To those who don't know about him Prebble, or Preb as nickname, was the leader of conservative ACT Party of New Zealand in NZ Parliament. He was also once Labour Party government minister. He is conservative even by US standards - my guess is he is a bit like Bobby Jindal type - and that makes him very conservative in NZ)
He seems to be suggesting we should start calling Kerry President-elect now because all seems to be lost with W. and he looks like definitely on his way out by November:
http://www.act.org.nz/item.jsp?id=25876
Of course I don't quite agree with Preb's take. This take seems to be better.
I just pray not too many felons, and dead people are allowed to vote.
His father's re-election campaign was one of the most poorly orchestrated on record. It lacked energy and enthusiasm, it was almost as if they fully expected to be re-elected therefore all that was required was a "go-thru-the-motions" type effort. Hopefully, although I'm not optimistic, GWB has learned something from his father's failed re-election campaign.
Bush has learned a lot from his dad's administration. You can already tell by the way he has run the country.
A lot of people think that Bush has been too passive but I believe they are sitting on a huge "October surprise." I think that this Berger/Clinton/Kerry stuff is the tip of the iceberg.
And the news gets worse. Kerry ain't no Klintoon. Blacks will not turnout for him in the strong numbers he will need to keep this close.
Kerry will lose. But Bill and Hillary already know that.
Kerry and Edwards are both empty suits.
The whole election boils down to how savagely the media can bash Bush and hide the real qualities of Kerry and Edwards from the voters until the election is safely done. Also, how much illegal soft money the Democrats can pour into the race, and how many dead people and illegals they can persuade to vote for their ticket. Last time I think it was around 3 million, but they miscalculated in Florida. This time all the stops will be pulled out.
Bush has done reasonably well because the orchestrated campaign by the media to Bash Bush took a break after Reagan died. Now I suspect they will take a break over the summer and only twist the news reflexively. But the election will depend on how successfully the Democrats can lie, cheat, and steal next fall. Believe me, it will be fierce.
It might even make you 'optimistic.'
I see it the same way the author does, especially the Kerry as a secret weapon factor.
Kerry doesn't generate enthusiasm. He doesn't have a policy thats coherent on any given topic. And finally, he's apparently oblivious to what happened to Mondale regarding taxes in 1984, and what happened to Carter concerning the economy in general in 1980.
Barring some unforeseen event, I'm much more confident about a Bush victory than I was eight weeks ago.
"Then throw in the Michael More movie, Fahrenheit 9/11. With a box office gross now over $90 million, upwards of 10 million people have already seen the film, and perhaps 15 million will see it by Election Day"
Wow, you mean maybe 15 million CRATS will see the movie. Just how much is that compaired to the total population of the US. And just remember, not all that 15 million CRATS will come out of the theater still a believer in CRAT S@@.
kerry, testimony before Congress, 22 April, 1971, kerry says, "I have been to Paris. I have talked with both delegations at the peace talks, that is to say the Democratic Republic of Vietnam and the Provisional Revolutionary Government,...."*(not on any authorised mission by the U.S. Government or by the U.S. military, kerry and his VVAW group meets and negotiates with the then enemy).
*excerpted from the Official U.S. Congressional Record dated 22 April, 1971.
"revamp the U.S. military", read as kerry's plan to PURGE the U.S. Military of Pro U.S. Military Veterans and Republicans, make it totally dependant on U.N. forces support for any significant achievement capable military(similar to france,germany, etc.), Turn home based U.S. Armed Forces, Intelligence agencies and Law Enforcement agencies into the democratic party's{including CPUSA and DSA} Praetorian Guard!!!!
kerry stabbed U.S. in the back continually since his return from Viet Nam. How much more backstabbing from this 22 April, 1971 testimony(self confessed traitor) before Congress that he(kerry) met with the then enemy in Paris, are we supposed to stand????
Some More Interesting historical news about kerry:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1091943/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1160580/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1165078/posts
Some of kerry's friends listed below:
http://www.cpusa.org/
http://www.dsausa.org/
DSA's "Progressive Caucus" Links below:
http://bernie.house.gov/pc/
http://bernie.house.gov/pc/members.asp
They are the Enemy Within!!!!
I have at least one or two interesting posts about said such subject matter, below:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1165983/posts
And see:
http://tonkin.spymac.net/hanoikerry1.html
More: Communist Party Backs the RATS!!!! below:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1171176/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1172055/posts
According to the Rasmussen poll, Kerry is still quite a bit ahead in the electoral college.
What happens if this time Bush wins the national vote, but Kerry the electoral college.
The obvious answer is that Kerry is President, but does it start a movement to change the Constitution?
Then throw in the Michael More movie, Fahrenheit 9/11. With a box office gross now over $90 million, upwards of 10 million people have already seen the film, and perhaps 15 million will see it by Election Day. Even if only 10-20% of the viewers are Republicans or undecided voters (as suggested by a survey taken on the movies opening weekend), if a few percent of these viewers change their allegiance as a result of this propaganda piece......it will probably be to vote for GWB.
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