Posted on 07/20/2004 6:23:23 AM PDT by ICX
I was saying three weeks ago that Jersey might go for Bush! Hope it happens!
I like Forrester a lot. I look forward to voting for him again next time around. I like Schundler too, but Forrester seems a little more solid as a person. Slightly more businesslike. But I like Schundler too.
Forrester is in. McGreedy will be out.
Bush will win NJ by 5 points.
I sure hope Bush is not counting on NJ putting him over the top.
"Bush will win NJ by 5 points."
that would be wonderful but i dont share your optimism
Unions will be sure that the dead vote a few times in NJ and everywhere in the Northeast
This isn't as far-fetched as it might seem. Just a few days ago I read an article that suggested the Kerry campaign might lean on McGreevey to resign before November. Their fear is that that large numbers of New Jersey moderates will turn out and vote against the Democratic candidate simply out of outrage over the ongoing stories over McGreevey's corruption.
I don't see Bush by 5. That just isn't going to happen in Jersey. But I could see him eeking out a win. It might be Florida close, but in the EC, they go to the winner regardless of whether it was close or a blowout.
If I had to put a range on it, I'd say NJ ends up between 2 points Bush and 4 points Kerry. It'll be close, unless something changes....meaning a big victory one way or the other. If the nation as a whole is close and the election is close, NJ will be close...and quite possibly decisive.
NJ is winnable, but far from a lock.
My wife and I are transplants from Texas. We are more than happy to help NJ lean to the right.
One in seven NJ residents work for local/state/federal government. Largest group is public school teachers. GOP must field a candidate that attracts a sizeable chunk of free thinking independents (fiscally conservative, but socially liberal) to overcome this Democrat voting block.
It would be tantamount to conceding that he is a criminal. It would effectively end his political career a la Torricelli.
What could Kerry do for him? Make him Secretary of Health and Human Services or something?
McGreevey is far too ambitious to become just a functionary in a Kerry administration.
McGreevey wants to fight the charges, wiggle out somehow, get reelected and then replace Lautenberg in the Senate.
While I predict a Bush lLandslide, NJ will not go to Dubya. I abandoned all hope for Joisey after the Torch-Lautenberg-NJSC fiasco. I just do my best to rally our base here and force Kerry to spend time and money here.
If the Kerry campaign has to spend any time and money in a state that Al Gore won by 16 points in 2000, he's doomed.
I don't know. That kind of behavior seems to make politicians more endearing to the RAT voters.
New Jersey may be as left-wing a state as you will find anywhere, but it also has a history of "vindictive voting" in state politics. In a heavily Democratic state, it took the Democrats 12 years to recover from Jim Florio. You don't think those Democratic assemblymen and state senators are aware of this?
I disagree. There aren't that many battleground states. Kerry can spend time and money in Jersey without overly compromising his efforts elsewhere.
What it does do is move where the battleground is. If Kerry is defending NJ, he is not attacking Arkansas/Missouri etc.
If the battleground favors Bush, as it looks to, that bodes well, but it does not mean that Kerry can't still win in those states.
This election will be a close run affair and it is essential that we win. And it will be essential until the Dems start taking national security seriously.
Absolutely.
It alienates swing voters, however.
Hope you are right, but the New Jersey GOP seems to be made up of "country club Republicans" that would rather remain in the minority than have a office holder that isn't a lap dog for the GOP's special interests in that state.
Just my opinon. I don't live in NJ, so my impression could be mistaken.
Imagine that ...
NJ going to Bush.
Miss Cathy will be SOOOOO PO'd
I'll never let her live it down.
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