Posted on 07/20/2004 6:23:23 AM PDT by ICX
GOP Eyes Garden State Tuesday, July 20, 2004 By Peter Brownfeld STORIES •New Jersey a Toss-Up in November?•Virginia: A Surprising Swing State•Bush Defends Iraq War in Wis. Visit•Bush, Kerry Request Embarrassing Material•Poll: Kerry-Edwards Bounce in Pa. •Poll: Voters Cite Kerry for Intelligence, Bush for Optimism WASHINGTON — Editor's note: This article is the second in an occasional series about unexpected swing states in the 2004 presidential race.
If fictional Mafia bigwigs were the key to winning New Jersey, John Kerry (search) would have the state all sewn up. Unfortunately for the Democratic presidential candidate, endorsements from actors James Gandolfini and Steve Buscemi of the mob show "The Sopranos" are not enough in this surprisingly close northeastern state race.
George W. Bush's (search) poll numbers have been largely static nationally. Meanwhile, New Jersey has been reliably Democratic in recent elections. But recent polls show an unexpectedly competitive race in the Garden State (search). According to state Republican party officials, voters in this wealthy, mostly suburban state are attracted to Bush because of his economic policy and homeland security credentials.
"Homeland security is at the forefront of minds of people in the state," said Brian Nelson, executive director of the New Jersey Republican State Committee (search), who noted that nearly 1,000 New Jersey commuters were killed in the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. "[It's] one of the reasons we see greater support for [Bush]."
In addition to homeland security, Nelson said that New Jerseyans, many of whom are investors and work on Wall Street, have taken advantage of Bush's economic initiatives and would like to see them extended.
"We've got a lot of individuals that benefited from the capital gains cuts," he said, adding that tax cuts and falling jobless numbers in the state are almost directly correlated.
Although state Democrats acknowledge the race is closer than they would like, they point out that strong numbers in July guaranteed nothing come November and, they argue, Bush is weak on a wide range of issues that New Jersey voters care about.
"In general, people in New Jersey believe that George W. Bush has taken the nation in the wrong direction," said Adam Green, communications director for the New Jersey Democratic State Committee (search). Education, the environment, tax fairness and support for veterans "all are big issues in New Jersey and all are ones where Bush has let down families."
Green said he doubts that homeland security, the topic Bush and the GOP hope to capitalize on, will be an issue that benefits the president.
"Homeland security (search) is a huge issue in New Jersey, and it's an issue that Democrats really will take Bush to task on. In New Jersey, we have ports that have not been protected by this president. We have firefighters and policemen who have seen their funding cut by this president," Green said. "We are significantly underfunded by George W. Bush. We aim to make this one issue in a long list of issues."
Despite the hard charges against the president by Democrats, as well as Democrats' trouncing of Republicans in the last three presidential elections, Kerry's lead over Bush is far from commanding.
A Quinnipiac University poll released June 23 found Kerry leading Bush by six points in a three-way contest with Ralph Nader. In a head-to-head contest Kerry bested Bush by eight points. The poll of registered voters in New Jersey was taken before Kerry named John Edwards as his running mate, and had a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
Although this lead is outside the margin of error, it is much smaller than the 16-point victory scored by Al Gore over Bush in 2000 or the 18-point margin that Bill Clinton had over Bob Dole in 1996.
To pull off a win and rake in New Jersey's 15 electoral votes, Republicans will have to buck this history. And to hear them speak, they sound like they think they have a real shot at winning the state.
"It certainly is in play. A number of polls have consistently shown the president within just a couple of points. Basically, there is a statistical dead heat with John Kerry in the state," Nelson said.
"The state was written off for John Kerry, but as we see now a number of people are putting it in the purple category," he added, referring to the red-state designation for Republicans on electoral maps and the blue-state label for Democrats. "This is certainly something that the Bush campaign and the RNC has started paying attention to."
The state is likely to be saturated with advertising and political information in the coming months, albeit inadvertently. The Republican convention will be held in nearby New York City at the end of August, and Pennsylvania is a major battleground state that will be fought for over the airwaves in nearby Philadelphia.
While losing New Jersey would be a devastating blow for the Kerry campaign, Larry Bartels, professor of politics and public affairs at Princeton University (search), told FOXNews.com that it's too early in the race to rely on polls.
"I think polls at this time of the year are virtually meaningless. People haven’t really started to think seriously of who they are going to vote for," Bartels said, adding, "If he's doing badly in states that have looked as favorably as New Jersey has, he will be doing worse presumably in states that are real battleground states."
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
I was saying three weeks ago that Jersey might go for Bush! Hope it happens!
I like Forrester a lot. I look forward to voting for him again next time around. I like Schundler too, but Forrester seems a little more solid as a person. Slightly more businesslike. But I like Schundler too.
Forrester is in. McGreedy will be out.
Bush will win NJ by 5 points.
I sure hope Bush is not counting on NJ putting him over the top.
"Bush will win NJ by 5 points."
that would be wonderful but i dont share your optimism
Unions will be sure that the dead vote a few times in NJ and everywhere in the Northeast
This isn't as far-fetched as it might seem. Just a few days ago I read an article that suggested the Kerry campaign might lean on McGreevey to resign before November. Their fear is that that large numbers of New Jersey moderates will turn out and vote against the Democratic candidate simply out of outrage over the ongoing stories over McGreevey's corruption.
I don't see Bush by 5. That just isn't going to happen in Jersey. But I could see him eeking out a win. It might be Florida close, but in the EC, they go to the winner regardless of whether it was close or a blowout.
If I had to put a range on it, I'd say NJ ends up between 2 points Bush and 4 points Kerry. It'll be close, unless something changes....meaning a big victory one way or the other. If the nation as a whole is close and the election is close, NJ will be close...and quite possibly decisive.
NJ is winnable, but far from a lock.
My wife and I are transplants from Texas. We are more than happy to help NJ lean to the right.
One in seven NJ residents work for local/state/federal government. Largest group is public school teachers. GOP must field a candidate that attracts a sizeable chunk of free thinking independents (fiscally conservative, but socially liberal) to overcome this Democrat voting block.
It would be tantamount to conceding that he is a criminal. It would effectively end his political career a la Torricelli.
What could Kerry do for him? Make him Secretary of Health and Human Services or something?
McGreevey is far too ambitious to become just a functionary in a Kerry administration.
McGreevey wants to fight the charges, wiggle out somehow, get reelected and then replace Lautenberg in the Senate.
While I predict a Bush lLandslide, NJ will not go to Dubya. I abandoned all hope for Joisey after the Torch-Lautenberg-NJSC fiasco. I just do my best to rally our base here and force Kerry to spend time and money here.
If the Kerry campaign has to spend any time and money in a state that Al Gore won by 16 points in 2000, he's doomed.
I don't know. That kind of behavior seems to make politicians more endearing to the RAT voters.
New Jersey may be as left-wing a state as you will find anywhere, but it also has a history of "vindictive voting" in state politics. In a heavily Democratic state, it took the Democrats 12 years to recover from Jim Florio. You don't think those Democratic assemblymen and state senators are aware of this?
I disagree. There aren't that many battleground states. Kerry can spend time and money in Jersey without overly compromising his efforts elsewhere.
What it does do is move where the battleground is. If Kerry is defending NJ, he is not attacking Arkansas/Missouri etc.
If the battleground favors Bush, as it looks to, that bodes well, but it does not mean that Kerry can't still win in those states.
This election will be a close run affair and it is essential that we win. And it will be essential until the Dems start taking national security seriously.
Absolutely.
It alienates swing voters, however.
Hope you are right, but the New Jersey GOP seems to be made up of "country club Republicans" that would rather remain in the minority than have a office holder that isn't a lap dog for the GOP's special interests in that state.
Just my opinon. I don't live in NJ, so my impression could be mistaken.
Imagine that ...
NJ going to Bush.
Miss Cathy will be SOOOOO PO'd
I'll never let her live it down.
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