2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, July 19, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[AlienCrossfirePlayer]

I very much prefer the color scheme used in the map at #3 compared to the usual. Does anybody know why red is typically used for Republican (just my taste).

[jdege]

Date	Prob. Bush Win	Mean EVs	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8
05/17	65.2%	284.8	36.6
05/24	60.0%	280.3	36.9
05/31	61.1%	281.2	36.8
06/07	60.5%	280.6	36.5
06/14	65.0%	285.0	36.6
06/21	63.9%	284.0	36.8
06/28	58.4%	278.8	36.7
07/05	58.7%	279.1	36.7
07/12	53.1%	274.2	36.5
07/19	48.2%	269.8	35.7

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks jdege!

[KellyAdmirer]

I agree, that entire Michigan/Wisconsin/Iowa/Minnesota corner is up for grabs. Florida is always in play, but I seriously doubt that Ohio will go for Kerry. Every election I can remember, Ohio was considered soft by the liberals with all the media scare stories of unemployed and rust belts and all that, but in the clutch it comes through.

Pretty much every other Blue state looks pretty solid to me. Arizona is solid, judging by recent polls, and Nevada will come through unless it's a big Kerry day, which I highly doubt. West Virginia will vote for the incumbent like it always does. Colorado would go for the liberals only if Ross Perot were to rise from the political graveyard and turn the clock back to 1992. Edwards won't be enough for Kerry in North Carolina, pretty boy does absolutely nothing for Kerry anywhere. Kerry lost Missouri for good when he stiffed Gephardt.

On Kerry's side, there is a lot of softness. New Hampshire and one of Maine's votes are up for grabs, putting them all in Kerry's column is pretty cheeky. Kerry will have to fight hard for Oregon and New Mexico. Pennsylvania is increasingly iffy for the Democrats. Even Hawaii is showing some restlessness on the liberal plantation. Kerry has a lot more to worry about than the President.

[Gritty]

Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire - all too close to call and the first two are in the GOP column!

[Graymatter]

Plus, folks in the panhandle won't be getting the hint that it's over already and they needn't bother voting.

[rocky88]

Don't count out NJ either. If you visit there, not a Kerry sticker to be found, but Bush stickers and patriotic stickers everywhere. Flags on the highway overpasses plus MUCHO dissatisfaction with their Rat governor, McGreedy...

[Reader of news]

I don't think OR goes to President Bush. Maine and NM are in the Kerry's columm, although may be won by the President.

[Reader of news]

Is it happening in whole NJ?

[LincolnLover]

This hasn't been mentioned much, but I can't help but think that Jeb Bush will factor in to helping the state go GOP this fall.

I can't find recent approval ratings for the Gov., but he was riding as high as 56% approval in 2003. How such a popular two-term governor not be able to turn out a substantial vote for his own party's Presidential nominee----his own brother, for Pete's sake---sure seems odd to me.

Common sense tells me that Jeb and his people have learned lessons in turning out the vote in 2000 that will come to bear this November.

At least I hope so...

[KellyAdmirer]

NJ imho goes for us if it is a moderate blowout. After PA, it is the weakest Kerry northeast must-win stronghold. If it weren't completely dominated by liberal NYC/Philly media, it would be a true leaner.

[EKrusling]

I very much prefer the color scheme used in the map at #3 compared to the usual. Does anybody know why red is typically used for Republican (just my taste).

I think the color scheme is traditionally based on which party controls the whitehouse. If they stick to that system Republicans should be blue in this year's electoral maps, even on the big media networks.

I have to say that I prefer the Republican blue as well.

[Drathaar]

I've heard Penn could go to Bush.

[olde north church]

I believe what will put NJ in Bush/Cheney column is the influx on NY'ers who moved to here after 9/11. Anyone who was affected and had one month's mortgage payment crossed the Hudson. That is why you have such whacked out #s in NY for Kerry and so tight in NJ for Bush. People who worked were able to move.
There is also a lot of dissatisfaction with the NJ Gov, Senate and House overall.

[Remember_Salamis]

The DNC Convention will look like the Wellstone Memorial two years ago. That swung a swing state our way; the same thing will happen at the Convention.

[LS]

I live in OH, and from what I can tell, nothing has changed since 2000. Yah, there are some layoffs, but the GOP here has been pretty active (especially in DEM Montgomery Co.) and has registered a LOT of new Republicans since 2000. They had a walk through a month ago, and were VERY pleased with the new registration results.

[LS]

I agree. There is no way it was going to stay in the 90s, or even the 60s. And despite the fact that Clinton had 60+ approval ratings, Al Gore lost.

I honestly think Bush has gone through the trough, and now will go up. How far, I don't know, but Ras has him back to 52% and ahead of Kerry in the 3-day tracking poll.

[LS]

I think Wisconsin will go Bush this time. Minnesota, thanks to Nader, is VERy close, and Bush could take it. Moreover, Bush only lost NM by 500 votes, and I can't believe he hasn't gained 500 votes this time.

[BSunday]

Just for curiosity sake I counted Bush and Kerry bumper stickers while I was driving on vacation the last 2 weeks. It came out 15-5 in favor of W.