Don't count out NJ either. If you visit there, not a Kerry sticker to be found, but Bush stickers and patriotic stickers everywhere. Flags on the highway overpasses plus MUCHO dissatisfaction with their Rat governor, McGreedy...
Is it happening in whole NJ?
NJ imho goes for us if it is a moderate blowout. After PA, it is the weakest Kerry northeast must-win stronghold. If it weren't completely dominated by liberal NYC/Philly media, it would be a true leaner.