Posted on 07/19/2004 6:57:22 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 94.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 78.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 59.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 11.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 78.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 6.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 17.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 50.2 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 5.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 94.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 9.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 93.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 36.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 81.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 25.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 13.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 3.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 35.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 25.3 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 58.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 58.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 48.0 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 16.9 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 41.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 8.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 77.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 54.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 95.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 38.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 44.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 91.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 80.5 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 97.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 5.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 78.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 24.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 64.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 43.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 274 | 264 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 274 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 264 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 269.80 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
Judging by their recent appearances, the campaigns seem to think that Minnesota is a lot more in play than tradesports does.
Sounds good to me.
I don't see how he can lose Florida after the prescription drug benefit for seniors payoff. Plus, without Lieberman on the ticket, the conservative Jews in Florida will come home this year. So that leaves Missouri and Ohio as the most critical states to hold at this point.
Don't bet on it....my father is a senior (conservative, thank God) living in Florida & all his peers won't be happy until EVERYTHING is paid for.
All this will change , after The DNC holds its Circus Convention, and the GOP holds its DAZZLING PATRIOTIC CONVENTION, and the debates between flip flopping dork John Kerry and the honorable President George W. Bush.
BUSH WILL BE RE ELECTED!
I was really praying for a total wipeout so the democrats couldn't bring up that word 'mandate' again!!!
too close.
I'm betting on a 300+ electoral for Bush
Call me crazy, but BC04 thinks CA is in play and I agree.
Although the trend is downward i would like to point out that this was bound to happen, keep in mind at one point Bush had 91% approval. That has settled down and the partisanship from different areas of the country has reemerged. I just hope that we retain Florida OH and maybe grab PA just to rub a little salt in the Dems wounds :)
DITTO.
Thank you - We appreciate your efforts in reporting!!!!
Plus, Hillary must see to it that Edwards is crushed.
You're welcome.
I think MO, WV, OH, FL and PA will go to President Bush. Somes of the states he visited last Tuesday and Wednesday -MN, WI, MI- will also do.
When is Arnold gonna get off his Austrian Arse and call the Breck Boys "GIRLIE MEN"...!!!
Come on Arnie!
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