Author: Al-Qaida Has Nuclear Weapons, Likely Inside U.S.

NewsMax ^ | 7/14/04 | Stewart Stogel

[wagglebee]

A new book written by a former FBI consultant claims that al-Qaida not only has obtained nuclear devices, but likely has them in the U.S. and will detonate them in the near future.

These chilling allegations appear in "Osama's Revenge: The Next 9/11: What the Media and the Government Haven't Told You," by Paul L. Williams (Prometheus Books).

Williams claims that al-Qaida has been planning a spectacular nuclear attack using six or seven suitcase nuclear bombs that would be detonated simulantaneously against U.S. cities.

"They want the most bang for the buck, and that is nuclear," Williams told NewsMax.

"I expect such an attack would come between now and the end of 2005," the author said.

In addition to writing several books on terrorism, Williams, an investigative journalist, has worked as an FBI consultant.

Williams' contention is not far from what U.S. intelligence believes, a source close to Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge has told NewsMax. The source said Ridge claimed that U.S. intelligence believes terrorists already have smuggled into the U.S. actual atomic devices as opposed to so-called “dirty nukes” that simply are conventional bombs that help spread radiation.

The Bush administration has warned for years that terrorists pose a nuclear threat to America.

Williams' book presents a review on the increasing spread of nuclear weapons technology, which the author says can be traced to India's nuclear tests in the early 1970s. It accelerated when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Shortly after the Indian nuclear tests, Pakistan made an all-out effort to join the nuclear club, the author says. Islamabad received "help" from sympathetic nations, namely China and North Korea.

Williams traces the rampant spread of nuclear bomb development to a leading Pakistani scientist, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan.

Khan, described as an "Islamic extremist," has also been depicted by former CIA chief George Tenet as "the father of Pakistan's nuclear program."

It is believed the Pakistani gained his expertise while working in the Netherlands, where he allegedly stole technology used in uranium reprocessing, a key procedure for building an atomic bomb.

Pakistan successfully detonated two nuclear weapons inside a northern mountain range in the late 1990s.

Khan, arrested by Pakistani police in February, under White House pressure, admitted selling nuclear technology to numerous foreign countries including North Korea and Libya.

Williams reports that Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl was investigating Khan at the time he was kidnapped and later killed (2003).

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, fearing a backlash from radical Muslims, granted Khan a pardon but restricted his travels.

According to Williams, another beneficiary of Khan's "contacts" was al-Qaida. The author reports that the U.S. got its first "hard" evidence of a connection when it invaded the Afghan capital of Kabul in 2001.

A former al-Qaida safe house was found to be loaded with documents detailing dealings with the Pakistani scientist.

The finding was so serious, says Williams, that Tenet traveled to Afghanistan and Pakistan to follow up on the discovery.

Tenet: 'They Are Coming'

Perhaps it was such intelligence that led Tenet to say in October 2002: “The threat environment we face is as bad as it was before September 11. It is serious. They have reconstituted. They are coming after us."

Almost from the moment 9/11 happened, the U.S. has been on heightened state of alert and worry over the possible use of nuclear weapons. On the day of the attack, President Bush left Florida and began criss-crossing the country in Air Force One in maneuvers consistent with a president preparing for a nuclear attack.

Shortly after Sept. 11, Taliban leader Mullah Omar claimed to BBC that the main intent of al-Qaida was the “bigger cause,” which he described as the “destruction of America.”

Asked pointed if this meant the use of nuclear weapons againt the U.S., he responded: “This is not a matter of weapons. We are hopeful for God's help. The real matter is the extinction of America. And, God willing, it will fall to the ground.”

Omar cryptically suggested a nuclear plan was already under way at the time of Sept. 11. “The plan is going ahead and, God willing, it is being implemented. But it is a huge task, which is beyond the will and comprehension of human beings. If God's help is with us, this will happen within a short period of time; keep in mind this prediction.”

The Russian Connection

The author points out that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 only made matters worse:

"The Chechen Mafia reportedly sold twenty nuclear suitcases in Grozny to representatives of Osama bin Laden and the Mujahadeen [in 1996]. For their weapons, bin Laden paid $30 million in cash and two tons of heroin."

Al-Qaida's leader, says Williams, is a major drug producer and runner in Afghanistan.

"It is the drug money, not the bin Laden family fortune, that is the financial engine for al-Qaida," he points out.

Today, Williams says, more than 40 Russian "nuclear suitcases" cannot be accounted for.

The suitcases are miniaturized tactical nuclear bombs (in some cases weighing less than 40 pounds) that were originally planned by the Cold-War-era Kremlin to be detonated inside the U.S. in the event of war.

These bombs were estimated to have an explosive power of between 1-10 kilotons, says Williams.

Most could cause damage equal to or greater than the crude device Washington dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.

The author says some of these weapons still remain stateside in a "sleeper" status controlled by Russian military officials who believe a war with the U.S. "is still possible."

Others, as many as 10, might be under al-Qaida's control, says Williams.

What kind of damage could such a weapon do? The CIA estimates the Russian nuclear suitcases to have an explosive yield approaching 10 kilotons.

Williams, referring to estimates by Theodore Taylor, a prominent American physicist who miniaturized the atomic bomb and visited the site of the World Trade Center in 1993, says a suitcase bomb could "emit intense thermal radiation, creating a fireball with a diameter that would expand to 460 feet. The core of the fireball would reach a maximum temperature of 10 million degrees Celsius ... ." The author says the heat that collapsed the Twin Towers never exceeded 5,000 degrees Celsius.

Had such a bomb been used in 9/11, Williams claims, "The World Trade Center towers, all of Wall Street and the financial district, along with the lower tip of Manhattan up to Gramercy Park and much of midtown, including the theater district, would lay in ruins."

Of those who might survive the blast, 50 percent of the survivors could expect to die at the rate of "250,000 people on any given day," Williams reports.

And how could al-Qaida manage to transport such weapons into the U.S.?

Williams points out that the borders with Mexico and Canada are still dangerously porous and not equipped to detect the smuggling of nuclear materials.

U.S. seaports are even more vulnerable, he argues.

Though New York City would seem to be the No. 1 target of another attack by al-Qaida, Williams points out other U.S. cities have been mentioned in intercepted intelligence chatter.

Among those discussed: Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia, Miami, Washington and Rappahannock County, Va.

Why a small rural county in Virginia? Williams says it houses the underground command center the White House would use in time of war.

He hastens to add that time "may not be on our side."

"It was eight years between the World Trade Center attacks. Islam preaches patience. They will attack when they want," Williams concluded.

More chilling was the response from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog.

One official, speaking on background told NewsMax: "We have no comment. It is not within our responsibility to track atomic bombs."

[Eighth Square]

Continuing this line of thought and knowing that this country is easily penetrated, I am constantly amazed at the civil liberties/privacy rights crowd who are standing in the way of meaningful undercover snooping. Combine their "twittering" with the generally poor security we have in place at some of the most sensitive sites in the country and you have a prescription for disaster. If even one of these 10 megaton babies cooks off, you won't have to worry about your privacy, or your stocks, or your checking account, 'cos in the resulting economic disruption that is sure to follow, your main concern may be in finding the food that you will need to live.

[Paleo Conservative]

The likliest targets are mostly 'RAT infested.

[Eighth Square]

Not true. Their leaders know that Israel will retaliate instantly, anywhere. My worry is that we won't and that they know it.

[Paleo Conservative]

If even one of these 10 megaton babies cooks off,

I seriously doubt they'd have any thermonuclear weapons. They are more likely to have something in the 10-20 kiloton range.

[RightWhale]

Would I be wrong in guessing that weapon grade uranium in a bomb would have a rather unique radiation signature?

Yes.

[jps098]

Yep, "Just an old-fashioned love song."

[Lael]

" They gain nothing by delay, and nukes don't have an indefinite shelf life."

That USED to be true with the old Polonium [?] based "Initiators" in the Nagasaki and Trinity devices.

It has been a long time since I studied Nuclear Engineering [our college had three research Reactors, including a CRITICAL, Heavy Water moderated one].

Some years ago, the ESONOMIST had a review of the way modern Nukes are initiated, and if I remember correctly, a Vaccuum Tube is fired up to supply the stream of Neutrons to accompany the Implosion.

I have no clue as to just what the Physics of a Vaccuum Tube supplied Neutron initiator involves, but it would seem to increase the storage life immensely.

In contrast, the Half Life of Polonium is 138.38 DAYS, so these "initiators"...if indeed used Polonium...would put Time as a critical factor.

No, unfortunately, the Nuke threat IS VERY REAL!!!

As to speculation about the design of the Original "Initiators", see "The Making of the Atomic Bomb" by Reeves.

The Hiroshima Weapon required NO initiator...just several Critical Masses of 90% U235...and Explosive Assembly.

[Lael]

ESONIMIST = The Economist

[tiki]

No, we need a neutron-type bomb, we don't want to contaminate the oil.

[Indie]

If al Qaeda has the nukes here, why haven't they already used them? They gain nothing by delay

Not trying to be flip, but I have several weapons in my safe. Why haven't I used any yet? The purpose has not justified their "expenditure" [so to speak], and a valid target has not presented itself.

I could go pop them all off but what good would it do without a plan and a purpose?

Same with AQ!

[MediaMole]

Trinity and Fat Man were both plutonium implosion devices. Little Boy was a gun type uranium bomb.

Little Boy was a very simple design. Take two chunks of sub-critical U235. One piece is the target, it sits at the end of a gun barrel. The other, smaller piece is shot down the barrel with explosives. When they hit, kablooey!

Plutonium implosion weapons compress a sphere of Pu239 using explosives with impeccably precise timers. The dozens of charges needed to perfectly compress the plutonium have to all go off simultaneously or the weapon will be a dud.

The added complexity of the implosion weapon made testing critical. Implosion weapons have the advantage of needing far less fissionable material so they can be made much smaller. All our current weapons are implosion weapons.

[ladyinred]

The Bush administration has warned for years that terrorists pose a nuclear threat to America.

But he is a liar you know! He is the biggest threat to America, just ask the lefties! /sarcasm

[Indie]

Continuing this line of thought and knowing that this country is easily penetrated, I am constantly amazed at the civil liberties/privacy rights crowd who are standing in the way of meaningful undercover snooping.

Your point is taken; however, most protest the HYPOCRISY of all the snooping whilst allowing the border to remain a sieve. It's easy to see why someone would think the snooping is on our own folks.

[ladyinred]

A flame war? Really? On FR? NO!! :-)

I suppose it was because there are those who refuse to believe there is a threat right?

[COEXERJ145]

The people that went off the deep end were the ones that are convinced that it is going to happen. People like me, who pointed out some stuff that shows it is not nearly as likely as the author says, were attacked without mercy just because we didn't blindly accept what the author's ideas.

[HipShot]

If you were to plan the attack, that's the way you might do it. Read his writings, look at his intentions and goals.

[nwctwx]

(Important Quotes) Osama's Revenge by Paul L. Williams.

I originally posted this on another thread, I figure I should post it here. These are all direct quotes from the book. If you have contention with any of the quotes, please don't come crying to me. ;-) I am just the messanger. Happy Reading, and good luck sleeping afterwards!

In reference to the Drug Trade that has financed much of UBL's terror operation against the west:

"Thanks to western decadence, bin Laden began to earn an amount estimated anywhere from $500 million to $1 billion a year. He could now purchase through his Russian connections the object of his heart's desire: several nuclear suitcases and the requisite technology that would bring about a triumphant "Day of Islam," whan all of creation would fall in submission before the judgment seat of Allah."

Information regarding nuclear suitcases bought from the Chechen mafia came from Boris M. and Alexy D. (two members from the Chechen Mafia):

"The Chechen Mafia purportedly sold twenty nuclear suitcases in Grozny to representatives of Osama bin Laden and the mujahadeen. For the weapons, bin Laden paid $30 million in cash and two tons of heroin that had been refined in his laboratories in Afghanistan. The street value of the heroin was in excess of $700 million."

"In 2002, al Majallah published an update, claiming that bin Laden had succeeded in obtaining a total of 48 nuclear suitcases from the Russian Mafia over the course of several years."

Brief synopsis of the weapons themselves:

"During the 1980s, Soviet and US nuclear technicians respectfully made refinements until the weapons came to measure 24 inches by 16 inches by 8 inches with a weight of less than 60 pounds. Each small suitcase contained at least one kiloton of fissionable plutonium and uranium."

Reasons to believe UBL obtained weapons:

"Concern about the nuclear suitcases first arose in 1994, when Dzhokhar Dudayev, leader of the Chechen separatists, notified the US state department that he possessed tactical nuclear suitcases. Dudayev said that he was willing to sell to hostile countries or groups if the United States failed to recognize Chechnya's independence."

"Dudayev's demands were not met, and in 1996 the Chechen Mafia negotiated the sale of suitcases to representatives of Osama bin Laden. It was an amicable deal between Muslims. Bin Laden got the weapons to destroy the Great Satan and the Chechens got the cash to drive away the Russian Bear."

"In a December 1999 interview with journalists from Time Magazine, he let it be known in an oblique way that he had secured nuclear weapons. He said, 'Acquiring weapons for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty, if I have indeed acquired these weapons, then I thank God for enabling me to do so.'"

"Some answers came with the arrest of Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, al Qaedas military operations chief, in Karachi, Pakistan, on March 2, 2003, the launch date for Operation Anaconda. After days of interrogations, the terrorist chief admitted that bin Laden's goal was to create a "nuclear hell storm" like the 1945 blast in Hiroshima that killed 140,000 Japanese. Unlike other attacks that could be planned and conducted by lower-level a Qaeda leaders, the terrorist chief said, the chain of command for the nuclear operations answered directly to bin Laden, al Zawihiri, and a mysterious 'Dr. X.'"

"The interrogations, coupled with the findings from UTN's headquarters, seemed to verify for the CIA that al Qaeda had produced several nuclear weapons from highly enriched uranium and plutonium pellets the size of silver dollars. At least one weapons was smuggled out of Afghanistan before 9/11. The weapon was transported to Karachi, where it reportedly was shipped out to America in a cargo container."

Other Nuclear Material:

"As they combed the tunnels near a former al Qaeda base in Kandahar, US troops made an important discovery: low-grade uranium-238 in a lead-lined canister."

Possible operatives in the nuclear plot:

"Four purported al Qaeda operatives - Adnan el Shukrijumah (emphasis added), Anas al Liby, Jaber A. Elbaneh, and Amer el Maati - had been sent to Hamilton, Ontario, where they either enrolled or posed as students at McMaster University, a state-of-the-art technological institution that housed a 5-megawat nuclear research reactor."

Here is some information I found while doing a bit more research on this subject

The author discusses the story of a soldier-for-hire traveling near Peshawar, Pakistan (Mr. Reed):

"When asked if the offer was legitimate, the chieftain assured Reed that the mujahadeen were in possession of even-greater weapons-nuclear weapons-that were being prepared for the next attack on America."

"The chieftain, according to Reed, went on to say that Russian, Pakistani, and Chinese scientists were training al Qaeda "suicide bombers" in the means of detonating the nuclear devices."

Targets (European):

"Spain remained the second European target because a goal of al Qaeda is the recovery of the lost Muslim kingdom of "Andalusia." At the start of the great crusades in 1096, three-quarters of Spain was Muslim."

"After Spain, according to the fatwas, the next target in Europe will be Rome, the world center of heresy because of the Vatican and the pope. And the fourth European target will be Vienna because the advancing Muslim armies were defeated there before they could engulf the heart of Europe."

The Creator of the Islamic Bomb (Abdul Qadeer Khan):

"Much of the funding for Dr. Khan's laboratories in Pakistan purportedly came from Saudi Arabian businessmen who were anxious to see the development of the Islamic Bomb."

"From 1998 to 2001, the esteemed scientist made more than thirteen separate trips to Pyongyang to consult with scientists and technicians at the Yongbyon Uranium Enrichment Plant."

Pakistani/Russian Scientists:

"But Pakistan's community of nuclear scientists and technicians remains "profoundly fundamentalist" and anti-American. They remain particularly resentful of the economic and military sanctions against Pakistan's nuclear weapons program that were imposed by the Bush Administration following the discoveries of proliferation."

"Intelligence sources have confirmed that SPETSNAZ officials from the former Soviet Union were on bin Laden's payroll from 1996 to 2001 to maintain and prepare the nuclear suitcases for activation. Moreover, following the invasion of Afghanistan and the loss of his laboratories, bin Laden reportedly sought out and obtained the technical assistance of twelve leading Pakistani scientists, including Dr. Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood, Dr. Chaudry Abdul Najid, and Dr. Mirza Ysus Baig. On November 25, 2001, Taliban leader Mullah Omar assured BBC reporters that the nuclear destruction of the United States was well underway. 'The plan is going ahead and, God Willing, it is being implemented. But it is a huge task, which is beyond the will and comprehension of human beings. If God's help is with us, this will happen within a short period of time; keep in mind this prediction."

Brief synopsis of all suspected nuclear material in AQ possession:

"In 1993 bin Laden began his search to build a nuclear arsenal by attempting to purchase highly enriched uranium out South Africa - a country that had a nuclear program under its previous government. The search culminated in the purchase of 48 nuclear suitcases from the Russian Mafia, along with 20 kilos of uranium-236 from Semion Mogilevich, a Ukranium arms dealer, and enough radioactive material from such black market sources in Russia, China, Kazakstan, and the Ukraine to build a multitude of dirty nukes. This finding has been affirmed by US, British, Pakistani, Saudi, and Israeli intelligence."

The Author does go into detail about the fact that these suitcase weapons need at least some maintenance (how much is debatable). He claims that bin Laden, through his Pakistani scientist connections, has acquired the man-power and logistical know-how to keep the weapons ready for usage.

Williams even gives the example of a suicide bomber who entered Israel on September 14, 2001 wired to a radioactive bomb assembled to fit on the body of the bomber. He claims that this never reached the media because it was kept from the public by the President [Bush] and Israeli security forces.

Some weapons already possibly in place:

"On October 11, 2001, George Tenet, director of CIA, met with President Bush to present news that at least 2 nuclear suitcases have reached AQ operatives in the US. The news was substantiated by Pakistan's ISI, the CIA, and the FBI. Each suitcase weighs eight kilograms and contains at least 2 kilotons of fissionable plutonium and uranium. One suitcase bears the serial number 9999 and Russian manufacturing date of 1988. The design is simple. The plutonium and uranium are kept in separatecompartments that are linked to a triggering mechanism that can be activated by clock or a call from a cell phone."

"On January 7, 1998, Shaykh Hisham Kabanni, chairman of the Islamic Supreme Council of America, testified before a committee of the US Department of State that more than twenty nuclear warheads carried in suitcases have arrived in the United States and that more than five thousand suicide bombers have been trained for the next attack. His statements are supported by Pakistani and Israeli Intelligence."

Regarding Nukes Arriving by Ship:

"Stephen Flynn, senior fellow for national security studies at the US Council of Foreign Relations, said: "The United States has 16,000 ships entering its ports every day. Adding shipments entering by truck, train, or air freight, the total number of import shipments to the US is 21.4 million tons a year. You could put a nuclear or chemical weapon aboard a ship leaving Karachi, and that ship will land at Vancouver, Oakland, San Francisco, or the Gulf Coast and we would never know the difference."

Quotes from random people:

Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan (the father of the Islamic bomb):

"Dr. Khan has responded to such criticism by saying: 'All Western countries, including Israel, are not only the enemies of Pakistan but, in fact, of Islam.'"

Dr. Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood: (One of Khan's top associates)

"Dr. Mahmood maintained that natural catastrophes occur in places where moral degradation becomes rampant. In Cosmology and Human Destiny, published two years later, he argues that sunspots determine the course of human events, including World War II, the revolution against colonial power in India, the Soviet invasion of Eastern Europe, and the rise of the mujahadeen."

"In 2001, he expressed his belief to members of the foundation [Holy Koran Research Foundation] that the US invasion of Afghanistan represented the beginning of 'the last war between Islam and the infidels.'"

"After months of questioning, Dr. Mahmood at last admitted that he had met bin Laden and other AQ officials, including al-Zawihiri, in Kabul on several occasions, including two to three days in August 2001 and on the fateful morning of September 11. The purpose of the meetings, he confessed, was not to discuss the nutritional benefits of whole wheat bread but the benefits of an atomic blast in an American city."

The CIA uncovers plans in one of Mahmood's corperation offices:

"They also discovered illustrations running the length of the room that showed how high altitude balloons could be used to release large quantities of anthrax and bubonic plague bacilli over major metropolitan areas."

Sulaiman Abu Ghaith (bin Laden's Press Secretary):

"We have the right to kill four million Americans - two million of them children - and to exile twice as many and wound and cripple hundreds of thousands."

"The current American administration every once in a while releases terrorist attack warnings. I say yes, yes, to what the American officials are saying that we are going to launch attacks against Americans ... I assure you that bin Laden and Zawihiri are in good health and were not injured in Tora Bora."

A quote from Saad al-Fagih:

"Saad al-Fagih, a Saudi dissident and al Qaeda insider, told a Time reporter than bin Laden now speaks with 'strange confidence' about the next attack against America. 'Before 9/11,' al-Fagih said, 'bin Laden would talk in general terms about a major attack coming and a major, major attack following.' He [bin Laden] would say, 'The first attack is going to be this size,' pointing to the tip of his finger, and, 'The next attack is going to be this size,' indicating the whole length of his finger."

[Revel]

This is related to your post:



The Destructive Effects of a Nuclear Suitcase Bomb

by Roland Watson


The dust is settling on the conflict in Afghanistan and not one major figure from the Taliban or
Al-Qaida has been found. Bin Laden remains elusive and, according to some reports, he may
have moved to the Pashtun-dominated area of Pakistan weeks ago.

In that sense, Operation Enduring Freedom is so far a failure. And that leaves one vital question still open. Does Bin Laden still own the fabled nuclear suitcase bomb?

We can safely assume that nothing of that nature was found in the Tora Bora complex. One does
not abandon equipment that cost millions of dollars, especially if a heavy American attack on
Afghanistan was worked into Bin Laden’s war game tactics prior to September 11th.

The answer, in my opinion, is somewhere between probably and not likely. But, whatever one’s view is, the major question is concerned with what these devices are capable of. The answer to that depends on a number of different factors which I shall explore below. A likely scenario of bomb parameters will be used and we shall arrive at a set of numbers, which will show only too clearly what an undesirable visitor such a device would be to an American city.

Yield

The first parameter to establish is the explosive yield of the device. Based on the various media
reports and articles I have examined, the alleged nuclear "backpacks" or "suitcases" would
appear to be in the one to ten kiloton range. As a benchmark, the uranium fission bomb dropped
on Hiroshima was just over ten kilotons. However, the majority of the articles tend towards the
lowest figure of one kiloton and that is the number I will assume.

Delivery

The mode of detonation is very influential as to the range of the effects of the nuclear explosion
and is partly dependent on the intentions of the terrorists. High altitude airbursts are normally
intended for Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) effects – i.e. to knock out electronic command and
control equipment. But this is not useful to terrorists and is useless anyway for such a low-yield
device.

A ground burst minimises blast and thermal damage due to the shielding of successive buildings
and hills but maximises the production of fallout particles. These particles are vacuumed up into
the initial fireball, which vaporises and then irradiates them before they condense back into solids
and float down to earth within hours.

Finally, a low altitude airburst would balance blast, heat, and fallout damage into one infernal
combination and has the dubious but added "bonus" of the Mach Effect, which is a reinforced
blast wave, created when a fireball blast wave meets the initial blast wave reflected from the
ground in the manner of constructive interference.

Which method would a terrorist choose? I suggest the low altitude airburst since it is emotive
pictures of decimated sectors of cities and high numbers of immediate casualties that they want
the world to witness. For sure, fallout from a ground burst could kill many more over the
following months and years, but that does not generate the razor-sharp publicity that a terrorist
hungers for.

But could a terrorist pull off a low altitude airburst? The only conceivable way to do this is to
carry the weapon over ground zero in a light aircraft. Getting the aircraft would probably be
quite easy as would be the loading of the device. Flying the aircraft over the city is more difficult,
but once again the nefarious deed could be executed before the military were alerted, scrambled
a fighter jet, and engaged the enemy. The likelihood of a USAF fighter catching such a plane is
also diminished if a lower-priority city is chosen. In that respect, I will assume a low-altitude
airburst. If they can kidnap and fly three out of four Boeing jets into their intended targets in one
day, they can do this as well.

A ground detonation is still entirely possible from inside a hidden building or a ship coming into
port (though half the energy of the blast could be directed towards the ocean) and these would
be easier operations. But this is primarily a question of what the terrorists believe is desirable and
achievable rather than what is easiest.

Target and Environment

Which is the unlucky American city? Certainly, it will be a city and it will be American as far as
an Islamic fanatic with an extremely rare and potent weapon is concerned. New York? Los
Angeles? San Francisco? New York has had a hard time of it with the two WTC attacks and
the downing of flight 587 (yes, I believe it was a terrorist attack), so we may be forgiven for
thinking the next attack will happen elsewhere.

However, the Eastern seaboard is the favoured route for bringing in smuggled items and
terrorists will not want to spend critical time in long, hazardous journeys westwards. We know
that some of the WTC terrorists were based and trained in Florida and that the alleged terrorist
on trial just now was caught in the mid-southern state of Oklahoma (ominously he had
undertaken Cessna flight training). I suggest that coastal cities further south or even into the Gulf
of Mexico may be at greater risk.

Furthermore, a city with a flat topology may be favoured above more contoured cities since hills
will deflect and absorb the blast waves as was the case in Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks.
Hiroshima was a flatter city than Nagasaki and paid for this with a greater death toll and
destruction per square mile.

Seeking to get the last iota of destructive power out of their devilish device, the terrorists would
also favour southern cities because of the hotter conditions and better atmospheric conditions. In
other words, clear, sunny skies are better "tinderbox" conditions as would that time of day since
Bin Laden would want clear conditions for the infamous mushroom cloud to be recorded by the
world’s media.

Ultimately, I have no topological maps of southern US cities to make such judgements, but the
reader can draw their own conclusions. So far, all this is deductive common sense, but I now
move onto the actual effects based on a warm sunny morning in such an American city. The
range given in feet and miles will be for the actual distance from ground zero and assumes the
fireball centre to be 200 feet above it.

Fireball

On that fateful morning, the citizens close to ground zero will note the unremarkable drone of a
light aircraft flying above their buildings. It is the last thing they ever hear.

Whether the blinding, split second flash of a hundred suns registers with them is unlikely because
the intense heat that kills them also travels at the speed of light. As the fireball expands rapidly to
its maximum diameter of 460 feet, its centre rages at a temperature of 10,000,000° C for its
brief lifetime. Note that temperatures in the WTC attacks were unlikely to have exceeded
5,000° C.

Metallic objects up to 450 feet from ground zero of the initial flash will vaporise. Metallic objects
up to 670 feet away will melt. It is needless to guess what happens to people caught out in the
open at these ranges – they cease to exist in any meaningful sense of the word and join the raw
material for the later fallout.

At 1400 feet from ground zero, rubbers and plastics will ignite and melt whilst wood will char
and burn. For victims out in the open, 3rd degree burns are inflicted up to 0.4 miles away, 2nd
degree burns up to half a mile away and 1st degree burns at up to nearly a mile away. It is at the
extremity of this range that we have the "open oven door effect" which needs no further
explanation.

Blast

The bomb will expend about 35% of its energy as this radiated heat; a further 50% is absorbed
by the atmosphere and becomes a juggernaut blast wave roaring across the city centre at speeds
of up to the limit of sound.

Coastal cities used to visiting hurricanes will not have witnessed the boiling winds we describe
here. As a comparison, a hefty hurricane-like wind velocity of 116 miles per hour will hit
residents at just under half a mile from the blast, whilst those experiencing less damaging winds of
70 mph at under 0.6 miles will feel fortunate.

Meanwhile, those buildings which survived the melting effects of the heat radiation will be
finished off by the high winds further into the city centre as winds approaching 670 mph will level
or badly damage even steel concrete structures within 740 feet of the blast. No one inside this
perimeter can hope to survive unless they are in good underground shelters.

Where the wind speed drops to 380 mph at about 1050 feet, tall multi-storey buildings will be
lucky to be left standing and survivors of the heat pulse will suffer potentially fatal lung injuries.
As the speed drops to 225 mph at about 1650 feet, most dwelling houses will be wrecked and
the streets blocked by debris. Flying fragments become the killer rather than sheer air pressure at
these distances.

What the initial radiation pulse did not ignite, the blast does by igniting new fires due to damaged
power lines, gas mains and oil tanks. Asphyxiation can also occur at these ranges as much of the
air is devoted to fuelling uncontrollable firestorms, which have no mercy on wooden housing.

Fallout

As I said, this factor will not be so important to devastation-minded terrorists, but the statistics
bear witness to further death and misery. The main figure here is the LD-50 dose level which will
kill at least 50% of humans exposed to it for an hour or longer. This value is 400 Rads for
humans and the victim can die within 30 days. Assuming a weather wind velocity of 15 mph
which gives a simple ellipse pattern of fallout, then this lethal dosage can extend downwind for up
to several miles but will be confined to a maximum width of only several hundred feet on
average.

It is to be noted that an instant gamma ray burst of 400 Rads from the fireball burst will also have
this effect up to about 700 feet from ground zero, but the victim would surely be dead from heat
and blast effects already.

Aftermath

As the winds drop to gale force at just under a mile, and the glow of the fireball abates, the grim
spectacle is over within minutes. We are confronted with a scene of complete devastation within
hundreds of feet of ground zero. As the four mile high mushroom cloud silently presides over its
work, rescue services will find this a radiation-infested no-go area for months and will
concentrate on helping those who have survived further away from ground zero.

Those who are capable of moving will be directed to get out of the immediate area to escape the
fallout which is beginning to rain down like snow along the wind patterns of the day. The
wreckage on roads as well as every possible vehicle taking to the road at the same time will
hamper evacuation procedures as will the transportation of the wounded and infirm.

People located about three-quarters of a mile or more from ground zero will have survived with
mainly minor injuries, their immediate task is to play their part in helping friends and relatives to
evacuate and beyond that lies the task of rebuilding and repairing homes as well as shattered
lives. Though only people in the immediate area of the fallout will be in danger, panic and
ignorance will no doubt lead to widespread evacuation across the whole city.

Based on the Hiroshima bombing and scaling down for bomb yields, one could expect fatalities
of up to 20,000 and a similar number of injured. If the contours of the land are favourable then
these number could drop by half as in the case of Nagasaki. Other factors such as the time of
day (e.g. not all people at work yet), accessibility to good medical facilities, evacuation
efficiency, and weather conditions all have a large part to play in the final casualty figures.

Conclusion

America is at war with international terrorism and will have to prepare itself against all that its
enemies can throw against it. In the larger scheme of things, terrorists can only inflict minimal
damage to the American continent as a whole – forty thousand casualties out of nearly 290
million people is 1 in 7250. As a comparison, a resident of the U.S.A. dies every 13 seconds or
20,000 will die of natural and unnatural causes every 3 days.

But these are not the cold-blooded statistics which interest the average citizen. Out of 77 major
American cities, they may feel the odds are closer to 1 in 77 rather than 1 in 7250. This is all
about psychology and a feeling of security and these terrorists know that only too well.

The protection of Heaven may yet prevent such devices being used, but one suspects that it is
more a case of "In the CIA we trust" rather than "In God we trust"!

January 4 , 2002

[boop]

I wish some reporter would ask Kerry what he would do if this threat happened. Would he say the US will NOT be blackmailed, or would he "accept" the Presidency by such means.

[Lael]

Little Boy was a very simple design. Take two chunks of sub-critical U235. One piece is the target, it sits at the end of a gun barrel. The other, smaller piece is shot down the barrel with explosives. When they hit, kablooey!

Actually, it takes almost Three Critical Masses of 90% pure U235arranged in FOUR subassemblies [three ANNULUS rings and a Cylinder...said Cylinder driven into the Tri-ANNULUS subassemblies.

Why???

Because the Critical Mass is based on a SPHERE, and the Critical Assembly is anything but, given that the Little Boy Engineers drove that Cylinder with...TNT!!!

Plutonium implosion weapons compress a sphere of Pu239 using explosives with impeccably precise timers. The dozens of charges needed to perfectly compress the plutonium have to all go off simultaneously or the weapon will be a dud.

EXPLODING WIRE detonators, invented by a Harvard Chemistry George KistiaKowsky [sp??????] expressly for this purpose...ordinary detonators are Three Orders of Magnitude too slow!!!

The added complexity of the implosion weapon made testing critical. Implosion weapons have the advantage of needing far less fissionable material so they can be made much smaller. All our current weapons are implosion weapons.

Actually, IMPLOSION is the ONLY real way to handle Plutonium as a WEAPON...Plutonium spontaniously generates another Plutonium Isotope which gives off Neutrons...Spoiling the "loose" timing of the Gun type method. Implosion is a MUST!!!

IMPLOSION requires an "INITIATOR" at the core. NOTHING ELSE is classified about Trinity-Nagasaki than the "Initiator!

As to Speculation on the Trinity-Nagasaki initiators, as well as what has replaced them...please see reply 107.