DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years: Bill Gates

AFP ^

[YoungHickey]

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FRANKFURT (AFP) - DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years at
the latest, Microsoft boss and founder Bill Gates
(news - web sites) predicted.

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Asked what home entertainment would like in the future,
Gates said that DVD technology would be "obsolete in
10 years at the latest. If you consider that
nowadays we have to carry around film and music on
little silver discs and stick them in the computer,
it's ridiculous," Gates said in comments reproduced
in German in the mass-circulation daily Bild.

"These things can scratch or simply get lost."

Gates' vision of television of the future was: "TV that
will simply show what we want to see, when we want
to see it. When we get home, the home computer will
know who we are from our voice or our face. It will
know what we want to watch, our favourite
programmes, or what the kids shouldn't be allowed to
see."

[steve-b]

Well, there is still something to be said for ownership of physical media - especially if some future government decides to ban certain productions. It would be too easy to turn off the feeds if the only sources are four or five big media companies.
DVD's might become obsolete but local storage of media probably won't.

That's one problem with this model. Another is that some people (including a fairly large percentage of the early-adopter types who are critical to any new technology) suspect that the media companies would dearly like to convert all media to a pay-per-view model, with little or no option to permanently buy copies of anything. Marketing video-on-demand as a substitute (rather than a supplement) to DVDs (or whatever) would clearly aggrivate that suspicion.

[JRandomFreeper]

Is Bill for Kerry or Bush? Any one know?

I'm sure he's going to be quiet about it, but support the demoncrats. He always has in the past.

/john

[Lady Eileen]

bump

[reformedliberal]

I am 61. I remember when B&W TV was a novelty for the rich. Ditto color TV, VCRs, CD players, computers, satellite TV, air conditioning in cars,moe thanone car per family, conversion vans, central a/c, home hot tubs, home above ground swimming pools, microwave ovens, just to name a few. Then there are home graphics, video and music editing systems, which used to cost $200k or so.

We just bought our first flat screen HDTV. By the time it needs to be replaced, I expect the plasma TVs to be just as affordable. Why not have art work on a plasma screen? Who even can forecast what will be available to the average American in another decade?

I love technology all the more since I have been able to afford it, even if I do have to wait years for it to come down to my level. IMO, one of the geniuses of American capitalism is that people take luxuries and develop them for mass production for all of us.

[Rebelbase]

"I'll check but the last time I looked my dad still had his stereo console cabinet in the living room. I believe the turntable was still in working order. Stashed alongside was an album rack filled with Perry Como records, my mom's favorite"

Sounds like my Dad, too, only last time I checked it was Herb Albert and the Tiajuana Brass.

[JayNorth]

black and 12 inches across

insert well-endowed stereotype joke here

[danneskjold]

FHM

[Recovering_Democrat]

He is right. Compression technology is going to blow your mind in 10 years.

[Red Badger]

What do record players have to do with Bed, Bath and Beyond? We're getting one here pretty soon.......

[sharktrager]

When I had cable they already had movies on demand.

The issue was the limited selection, and they didn't seem to do much to build the library. They had some old stuff, but most movies that were new disappeared when their PPV run ended.

[Hank Rearden]

I don't think much of Bill Gates' software company or it's products, but I have to respect his marketing ability. I'm just glad he didn't decide to market suppositories.

Don't be so hasty. What do you think he has in mind to replace DVDs?

[weegee]

How is it going to know what I want to watch when even I don't know?

Profiling. While it is illegal for police and security to do, advertisers, marketers, politicians, and programmers are permitted to do it.

Not only will they show you the programs you "want" to watch (or "should" watch), advertising can also be honed to your interests and even political ads could be targeted to have a candidate parrot back the views you want to hear on an issue. Other people would see different ads and even if you watched the same program downstairs that your children watched upstairs, you may not see the same ads.

[ruiner]

Whats the big deal. I have a fob on a keychain that carries 256mb. They already have memory sticks the size of stamps with 1gb capacity.

Is it that difficult to imagine we'll stop using optical and go to highspeed storage devices?

[JayNorth]

Is Bill for Kerry or Bush? Any one know?

He has always struck me as a little left of center, but not preachy when it comes to politics. Melinda French is a socialist, IMHO.

[freedumb2003]

There are a lot of folks who still don't have a computer in their house.

How do they breathe FReep???????????????

[gdani]

My computer will sigh and say, "Nothing's on. Again."

Whenever Video On Demand reaches its fullest capacity, it will mean being able to access any recorded television -- movies, TV, sporting events, etc -- ever made.

[HairOfTheDog]

There are a lot of folks who still don't have a computer in their house.

True enough, but it is hardly only the elite. Computers are mainstream. I am surprised you think technology is going to be static now for the masses. I think the idea of streaming on demand music and movies, and broadcast shows is not even that far off.

[MississippiMan]

There's a ton of research going on in the area of memory-based "hard drives." I think we're finally only a few years away from the time when we turn on our computer and it's up and running within seconds. A prolific inventor friend of mine has developed a light-manipulation technology that sounds way exciting, too; CD or DVD burning with almost no moving parts, things like that.

MM

[PBRSTREETGANG]

Gates may be right, but then he never lets us see...

...the minority report.

[KellyAdmirer]

If it knows what I like by seeing my face, then that's the last time I'll accidentally have Dan Rather, Tom Brokaw, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry on my screen.