Posted on 07/10/2004 9:00:20 AM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson
Saturday July 10, 2004--Senator Kerry now leads President Bush in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll, 49% to 45%. Today's results reflect a five-point net gain for the Democrats since John Edwards was named as Kerry's running mate. In our last survey before the announcement, President Bush had a one-point edge, 47% to 46%.
Today is the first time since Kerry wrapped up the nomination that either candidate topped the 48% mark in our daily Tracking Poll. Prior to today, both candidates had stayed within three points of the 45% mark on every single night of polling for more than 120 days.
Yesterday, we released data showing Kerry leading by 5 points in Pennsylvania while Bush leads by four in Ohio. Our latest Electoral College projections show Kerry leading Bush 247-203. Later today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release our latest results for Michigan and Virginia.
The Kerry-Edwards ticket is enjoying a modest bounce in today's polling release. However, it is not as big as some had anticipated. As a practical matter, there are not likely to be big bounces this year--even following the conventions. Four factors combine to reduce the potential for frivolous bounces in the polls.
First, more money has already been spent on advertising before the conventions than ever before. Second, the country is polarized in their opinions about George W. Bush. Third, the convention television coverage and audience will be smaller than ever. Fourth, the reality of what happens with Iraq and the U.S. economy dwarfs any campaign tactics in terms of electoral impact.
Bush job approval, however is still at 52%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm
Exactly. Don't read too much into this one, folks.
Polls, polls, polls. NBC say the John-Johns lead by 8. AP say Bush leads by 4. Zogby has the John-Johns ahead by 2.
No doubt the huge Kerry "bounce" came on the heels of that profanity-laced Democrat hate fest at Radio City Music Hall.
Be very careful. Hillary is watching very closely. You gain a couple more points and the media is going to bring out your past, um, "youthful indescretions".
Poll types....lies, damn poll lies, and statistics.
Wait a minute. This had to be some huge night of sampling last night. Either that or a huge Bush night rolling off 3 days ago. There were no events to cause this. It looks spurious.
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Kerry isn't getting a bounce because of Edwards; he is getting a bounce because Bush is running a weak campaign. The worst criticism Bush has of Kerry is that he's a "pessimist."
That's what I was thinking. Kerry gained two last night alone, which means that Rasmussen must have called a bunch of Dims yesterday or Bush must have had one hell of a Tuesday, which is doubtful because that is the day after Edwards was selected. Statistical noise IMO. When this Friday result rolls off, it will be neck and neck again.
I read somewhere that prisons typically release violent felons on Friday afternoons, so an influx of Democrat voters would be arriving home just in time to be polled by Rasmussen last night.
Why would you even post this *GARBAGE*?
Let me know when you have a *REAL* poll.
You're quite welcome
Why would you even post this *GARBAGE*?
I'm working on my agitprop merit badge.
Let me know when you have a *REAL* poll.
The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Give me an example of a *REAL* poll.
November 2, 2004.
Wow... my computer is dizzy, this one's spinning so hard. A more accurate wording would be "The Kerry-Edwards ticket is enjoying a virtually insignificant bounce...."
Agree 100% - GWB is a great man - a very good President - but the people leading his reelection have done a sub-par performance thus far (at best) - in fact they have been inept when it comes to 527's and the "premise" on the economy -
We still have 3 3/4 months until the election. Be patient. Bush will pull out all the stops in due course.
How can he with CFR? He missed his chance to define Kerry & Edwards. People have no idea that Kerry is the Senate's #1 liberal and they think that Edwards is a conservative for goodness's sake.
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